Temporal Trepass is about the only call I disagree with. I think sometime during its run through standard it will hit 5 - 10tix (or more). Don't underestimate the extra attack steps granted from taking extra turns, Trepass is more than +1 card, untap... Trepass is a finisher. If someone builds a deck where its 'win' and not win more, the card is going to take off. I can see it fitting neatly into a Jeskai OR Sultai Ascendancy variant if a couple other supporting cards get printed.
Realy? A Y2K bug? . They have a bunch of interns running the show over there?
Nissa is super strong against UB control as the perilous vault doesn't work against the land critters she creates. Got my butt handed to me a few times by Nissa if they can resolve her and I don't have a Hero's Downfall.
I also love how Modern Prices are lowering. Some of the good cards are coming within obtainable range, so more people will buy and more people will play.
Hi kuma,
Just to let you know, so you can tell whomever in advance, I won't be around for the next three weekends, so feel free to let some good soul know in advance they can have my spot.
Edit:Also, I'm pretty sure I played with 2 Polukranos and only 3 Phyrexian Hydra. I see that somehow didn't get recorded right in Gatherer. Feel free to forfeit my prize if you want and/or assess other penalties.
And we could record our matches. Would be kinda cool to see both sides of the equation. Or if you're not able to record we'd at least have the one video we both could post. Once it's on YouTube, it's easy enough to embed.
No big deal I know it can be hard to record so when you have the time you just have to go for it ha. I am always around just shoot me a message sometime.
It is true that there are a bunch of bulk mythics at 0.05 price. But they are promos and the cards that out of redemption (old core sets, MMA, VMA, Innistrad and rest older sets).
The lowest Standard legal mythic price I ever saw was around 0.25-0.30 tix in few cards. The first one I saw is currently at 3.87 tix (Giant Adephage) and others are Hythonia the Cruel and Medomai the Ageless. And their price will mostly also increase after the rotation, at least to 1-1.5 ranges. The price line of Standard mythics are not linear as the rare cards due to the fact that redemption criteria is heavily affecting their values.
The average price of a Standard legal bulk mythic card is mostly 1 tix (but it may dance between 0.5-1.5 during its two year life-span).
Whisperwood Elemental is an interesting card. It has a potential, but a very narrow application against few decks and it is not even much consistent when playing against Control decks. I think it will be mostly a SB card. Even, Hooded Hydra seems as a better option instead of it.
With the current meta status, I can only imagine Ugin in UB, UW/R colored Control decks (in Standard format) as 2 copies. And in Modern, he will be in great competition against Karn. Regardless of that, Ugin will still see some play in Tron decks, mostly in Mono Blue versions. But I doubt, they will use it as x4 copies.
As a result, I don't think the demand to Ugin will be higher than the supply. But, meta may always change to new directions and I can be wrong about my assessment...
Thanks for the interesting insights. Not sure I agree on your stance on mythic "bulk" prices as I've seen those go as low as .05. And some of the mythics you say aren't very good, seem like they have sleeper potential. Particularly if the next blocks are as slow as Khans Cycle seems to be.
Also re: Control, I've been hearing rumors on the grapevines of a decent UW counter deck coming up so I would not count control out of things just yet, and Bant Control could be the key. The Whisperwood Elemental for example could fit right into a control deck as a top card along side Wingmate Roc and or See The Unwritten. Not that I'd expect that to happen. I expect UW to be a contender, not so sure about a bant version but hey would be funny.
I like your ideas and perspective. I would also add that Commander may cause its value rise also.
I agree that there is a chance that it will rise (perhaps to $20), but even if it doesn't rise it's still safe and steady. Think about it in comparison to Sigarda Host of Herons. Sigarda is still $10 even though she has rotated out of standard and she is only used as a 1-of in the Modern decks which play her. I think that Brimaz will have more use than Sigarda (although to be fair Sigarda is an absolutely amazing commander).
Thanks for this excellent evaluation. I agree with your analysis.
My only suggestion is that I am not convinced that Ugin will "slowly may settle at 8-12 tix range within six months, if everything goes same." In my personal opinion, Ugin will remain high within 6 months, above $20. I could be wrong, but I don't see him falling down so low.
I got your notification but closed it before I knew it was you. Thought it was my opponent. Then I saw it was you on playback. had a great recording session today. 4 and 0, no losses at all. Of course, it wasn't a daily... that would have been sweet. But I think I have the right deck for right now. It won't be good in 2 weeks, but whammo.
I would like to see more vintage events. I only heard about Sunday's event due to a friend of mine. I don't typically follow the PRE scene anymore since events don't fall into what I play.
I feel like if word was spread around a little more that we'd have a larger turnout. We can manage to fire the DEs on the weekends pretty consistently, so I would think that many of those players would be interested in playing if they knew about it and the times were decent. They may, however, fall into the same category as me in not knowing these events exist. Biggest complaint I have right now is that the DEs pay out in the newest sets instead of something pertaining to the format you're playing in.
Also I know Legacy is a lot more popular than Vintage is right now so possibly consider doing something for that format instead. I don't see much outside of standard/modern and the niche formats.
As far as advertising events, Classic Quarter might be a good place to start for the eternal formats. Just something to think about.
If you want to get in touch with me in game, just shoot me a PM. I'm almost always on in the evenings.
News do not move the market. "Unexpected" news move the prices. And there is zero scientific evidence supporting that technical analysis is a useful tool. You might as well pick stocks by troughing darts at a newspaper.
You should do an ex post evaluation of your earlier predictions.
I'm working on a pauper version of this deck, but I think that I'm not going to run green.
So far, my build is different from the ur control/delver list i downloaded.
Btw I want to know, whats curse of the bloody tome for in the ur delver sideboard?
I had the unpleasant experience of my first game of pauper being against turbo fog. I hated that. Is that a match where you'd bring in curse of the bloody tome, to mill them out?
That is why I have to record during my daughter's nap and before my son gets home from school, gives me maybe an 1 1/2. so daily events are out of the question. Great article and if you ever want to do a standard vs video, I have UW heroic, RW aggro, and Jeskai tokens built. (among some brews)
Please let me know in the comments if you disagree or if I overlooked something, the next two parts will be arriving in the next day or two.
I'd agree if it weren't for the UUU in the cost.
Temporal Trepass is about the only call I disagree with. I think sometime during its run through standard it will hit 5 - 10tix (or more). Don't underestimate the extra attack steps granted from taking extra turns, Trepass is more than +1 card, untap... Trepass is a finisher. If someone builds a deck where its 'win' and not win more, the card is going to take off. I can see it fitting neatly into a Jeskai OR Sultai Ascendancy variant if a couple other supporting cards get printed.
Regrettably I can't make it this week as I have family present. Scion, I still owe you that ticket, let me know when's good.
I'll just change the list on Gatherling. :)
Sorry you won't be able to take part in the Invitational!
thanks and good point, I don't see as much downside risk with Brimaz because of the commander/general use.
Realy? A Y2K bug? . They have a bunch of interns running the show over there?
Nissa is super strong against UB control as the perilous vault doesn't work against the land critters she creates. Got my butt handed to me a few times by Nissa if they can resolve her and I don't have a Hero's Downfall.
I also love how Modern Prices are lowering. Some of the good cards are coming within obtainable range, so more people will buy and more people will play.
Great article as always
Hi kuma,
Just to let you know, so you can tell whomever in advance, I won't be around for the next three weekends, so feel free to let some good soul know in advance they can have my spot.
Edit:Also, I'm pretty sure I played with 2 Polukranos and only 3 Phyrexian Hydra. I see that somehow didn't get recorded right in Gatherer. Feel free to forfeit my prize if you want and/or assess other penalties.
Sounds good. We just need to set up a time.
And we could record our matches. Would be kinda cool to see both sides of the equation. Or if you're not able to record we'd at least have the one video we both could post. Once it's on YouTube, it's easy enough to embed.
No big deal I know it can be hard to record so when you have the time you just have to go for it ha. I am always around just shoot me a message sometime.
Paul, thank you very much for your comments.
It is true that there are a bunch of bulk mythics at 0.05 price. But they are promos and the cards that out of redemption (old core sets, MMA, VMA, Innistrad and rest older sets).
The lowest Standard legal mythic price I ever saw was around 0.25-0.30 tix in few cards. The first one I saw is currently at 3.87 tix (Giant Adephage) and others are Hythonia the Cruel and Medomai the Ageless. And their price will mostly also increase after the rotation, at least to 1-1.5 ranges. The price line of Standard mythics are not linear as the rare cards due to the fact that redemption criteria is heavily affecting their values.
The average price of a Standard legal bulk mythic card is mostly 1 tix (but it may dance between 0.5-1.5 during its two year life-span).
Whisperwood Elemental is an interesting card. It has a potential, but a very narrow application against few decks and it is not even much consistent when playing against Control decks. I think it will be mostly a SB card. Even, Hooded Hydra seems as a better option instead of it.
With the current meta status, I can only imagine Ugin in UB, UW/R colored Control decks (in Standard format) as 2 copies. And in Modern, he will be in great competition against Karn. Regardless of that, Ugin will still see some play in Tron decks, mostly in Mono Blue versions. But I doubt, they will use it as x4 copies.
As a result, I don't think the demand to Ugin will be higher than the supply. But, meta may always change to new directions and I can be wrong about my assessment...
Thanks for the interesting insights. Not sure I agree on your stance on mythic "bulk" prices as I've seen those go as low as .05. And some of the mythics you say aren't very good, seem like they have sleeper potential. Particularly if the next blocks are as slow as Khans Cycle seems to be.
Also re: Control, I've been hearing rumors on the grapevines of a decent UW counter deck coming up so I would not count control out of things just yet, and Bant Control could be the key. The Whisperwood Elemental for example could fit right into a control deck as a top card along side Wingmate Roc and or See The Unwritten. Not that I'd expect that to happen. I expect UW to be a contender, not so sure about a bant version but hey would be funny.
I like your ideas and perspective. I would also add that Commander may cause its value rise also.
I agree that there is a chance that it will rise (perhaps to $20), but even if it doesn't rise it's still safe and steady. Think about it in comparison to Sigarda Host of Herons. Sigarda is still $10 even though she has rotated out of standard and she is only used as a 1-of in the Modern decks which play her. I think that Brimaz will have more use than Sigarda (although to be fair Sigarda is an absolutely amazing commander).
Thanks for this excellent evaluation. I agree with your analysis.
My only suggestion is that I am not convinced that Ugin will "slowly may settle at 8-12 tix range within six months, if everything goes same." In my personal opinion, Ugin will remain high within 6 months, above $20. I could be wrong, but I don't see him falling down so low.
Meant to reply in that lst message. lol it was for you
I got your notification but closed it before I knew it was you. Thought it was my opponent. Then I saw it was you on playback. had a great recording session today. 4 and 0, no losses at all. Of course, it wasn't a daily... that would have been sweet. But I think I have the right deck for right now. It won't be good in 2 weeks, but whammo.
I'm on board for this! A return to WAFTT, or even a once monthly big WAFFT would be great for a weekend event.
I would like to see more vintage events. I only heard about Sunday's event due to a friend of mine. I don't typically follow the PRE scene anymore since events don't fall into what I play.
I feel like if word was spread around a little more that we'd have a larger turnout. We can manage to fire the DEs on the weekends pretty consistently, so I would think that many of those players would be interested in playing if they knew about it and the times were decent. They may, however, fall into the same category as me in not knowing these events exist. Biggest complaint I have right now is that the DEs pay out in the newest sets instead of something pertaining to the format you're playing in.
Also I know Legacy is a lot more popular than Vintage is right now so possibly consider doing something for that format instead. I don't see much outside of standard/modern and the niche formats.
As far as advertising events, Classic Quarter might be a good place to start for the eternal formats. Just something to think about.
If you want to get in touch with me in game, just shoot me a PM. I'm almost always on in the evenings.
Maybe you can host a monthly WAFTT instead of Bad Moon Rising or even better weekly WAFTT.
News do not move the market. "Unexpected" news move the prices. And there is zero scientific evidence supporting that technical analysis is a useful tool. You might as well pick stocks by troughing darts at a newspaper.
You should do an ex post evaluation of your earlier predictions.
I'm working on a pauper version of this deck, but I think that I'm not going to run green.
So far, my build is different from the ur control/delver list i downloaded.
Btw I want to know, whats curse of the bloody tome for in the ur delver sideboard?
I had the unpleasant experience of my first game of pauper being against turbo fog. I hated that. Is that a match where you'd bring in curse of the bloody tome, to mill them out?
I click and see 26560 views. That is way more cooler than Neutralizing Blast. Nice one
That is why I have to record during my daughter's nap and before my son gets home from school, gives me maybe an 1 1/2. so daily events are out of the question. Great article and if you ever want to do a standard vs video, I have UW heroic, RW aggro, and Jeskai tokens built. (among some brews)