As always a brilliant article. So glad you have continued writing and putting out gems for us to ponder. Stronghold has some very underrated cards and portcullis is definitely up there. Unfortunately, it requires playing in Legacy or Classic typically so not so much fun vs serious decks in those formats. On the other hand it might be interesting in some form of Tribal...
As an ex-Vintage player, articles like these make me want to break the bank on a set of classic staples... A full set of FoW, Duals, Wastelands, the restricted list, and othe odds and ends is... what... about $1200? Pfft, who needs furniture anyway...
Where (n choose k) is the binomial coefficient indexed by n and k.
The above statement evaluates to approximately .000518%, or about 1 in 193030.
If the question extends to drawing *at least* 13 lands in 14 draws (same assumptions), the probability increases to approximately .000529%, or about 1 in 188907, according to the following:
Great show again, guys. Seemed like there was a little mic trouble in the middle, but not too bad.
I really wish they were doing Masques differently. The bad limited play of the sets + the fact that getting a Port/Tangle Wire is going to be nigh impossible means only the most hard core limited nuts are going to crack packs. The allure of this "new old format" will only carry drafts for so long.
Otherwise, I wanted to list a few cards that I am excited about:
Spellshapers (Kris Mage, Waterfront Bouncer), Dust Bowl, Vine Dryad, Rishadan Port, Land Grant, Tangle Wire, Invigorate, Submerge, Unmask, Misdirection, Daze, Depletion Lands, Game Preserve, Foster, Thwart, Foil, Blastoderm, Skyshroud Ridgeback, Food Chain, Cave-In, Saproling Burst, Nether Spirit, Other Seals besides Fire (make my goyf bigger), Chimeric Idol (no mana burn makes this cool), Bribery, the best Brainstorm picture, Sunff Out, War Cadence (cause it reminds me of my favorite Slayer song).
Lol @ Doris Day.
Modern Storm deck is already ridiculous with Desperate Ravings, Past in Flames, and Pyromancer Ascension. Faithless looting is a great filter though.
Past in Flames was the mistake. I promise. That card will see standard play now even with just the Looting card. Desperate Ravings + Looting + Alchemy = One-stop shopping/Great Selection.
IDK if Looting will make Dredge more viable in Modern because the I have been seeing BUG Dredgevine, which means they would have to splash and find other justification for red but this could be strong enough.
As far as Legacy Dredge, I could see this making the cut. I mean, 12 Careful Studies would not be all that bad, right?
I actually appreciate the fact that people don't cherry pick their draft videos because it shows that even the best of us are susceptible to mistakes. No one 3-1/4-0s and/or makes the right picks every time.
Apart from the fact that i hate watching videos when i want to read an article, where is the content?
Recording a random draft and writing up 3 lines of text doesn't seem that noteworthy.
You should think of the randomness in this way: Every possible combination of cards is equally probable. Therefore, these things should happen. They don't usually happen in real life because manual shuffling is pseudo-random at best.
The standard rand() function of c++ (might be used here?) can produce up to 10^6 "good random values" so that shuffling a 60 card deck is to be considered random.
By my up-too-late math, you would have about .000402% chance of drawing 13 lands out of 14 cards from your deck. That's 1 out of 2487562. Odds of dying in a car accident in America this year? Something like 1 out of 6500.
Hey just wanted to drop in and say I really liked this article. I've considered writing articles on "competitive casual" myself from time to time, as I love building fun decks and playing them in the casual room. Beating decks chock full of all the power mythics with a bunch of commons and uncommons and junk rares is rather rewarding :)
How come my best student can make such newbie mistakes? Draft 1 was awful, Rick. But it's for your readers to see what NOT to do!
Some minor flaws playing, but those i'll comment live, if you want.
Since the Caw in Caw-Blade originally replaced the Draw in Draw-Go, and given that your Sword carriers are mostly at instant speed (with early permission up), I say we put the Draw back in the Caw and call it "Draw-Blade."
I do agree with a lot of the suggestions - like I said, these drafts are from a couple weeks ago, and since then many of my notions about the format have changed. For example, I think I didn't value Travel Preparations high enough in the first draft.
Other cases come down to personal preference. Vampire Interloper has been truly awesome in my experience, and it's something that aggressive black decks (especially black-red) want to have multiples of. Reckless Waif, well, nowadays I like it much more than I did back then, but I still seem to like it a lot less than grandpoohbah does. Not only is it in the worst color of the format in my opinion, I also think it is generally just worse than the cheap 2-power flyer. Or Cobbled Wings, for example - I just don't think it's generally a good card at all.
Either way, the next draft I'll post will be a more accurate representation of the pick priorities as I see them nowadays, and it's likely the best deck I've built in the format so far. So hang on. :)
As always a brilliant article. So glad you have continued writing and putting out gems for us to ponder. Stronghold has some very underrated cards and portcullis is definitely up there. Unfortunately, it requires playing in Legacy or Classic typically so not so much fun vs serious decks in those formats. On the other hand it might be interesting in some form of Tribal...
As an ex-Vintage player, articles like these make me want to break the bank on a set of classic staples... A full set of FoW, Duals, Wastelands, the restricted list, and othe odds and ends is... what... about $1200? Pfft, who needs furniture anyway...
Much appreciated, Hammer.
Happy Birthday Mr AJ - From one British Podcaster to Another
- Hammer
Land Grant! I can't believe I forgot about that. In my scrubbier days that was like my favorite card of all time!
Just a ton of info and work put into this article. The decks look fun and almost make me want to plat Std again! Excellent article.
The probability of drawing exactly 13 lands in 14 draws (assuming 24 lands in a 60 card deck) is given by the following equation:
P(13 lands) = (36 choose 1)*(24 choose 13)/(60 choose 14)
Where (n choose k) is the binomial coefficient indexed by n and k.
The above statement evaluates to approximately .000518%, or about 1 in 193030.
If the question extends to drawing *at least* 13 lands in 14 draws (same assumptions), the probability increases to approximately .000529%, or about 1 in 188907, according to the following:
P(>=13 lands) = P(13 lands) + P(14 lands)
where
P(14 lands) = (24 choose 14)/(60 choose 14)
Great show again, guys. Seemed like there was a little mic trouble in the middle, but not too bad.
I really wish they were doing Masques differently. The bad limited play of the sets + the fact that getting a Port/Tangle Wire is going to be nigh impossible means only the most hard core limited nuts are going to crack packs. The allure of this "new old format" will only carry drafts for so long.
Otherwise, I wanted to list a few cards that I am excited about:
Spellshapers (Kris Mage, Waterfront Bouncer), Dust Bowl, Vine Dryad, Rishadan Port, Land Grant, Tangle Wire, Invigorate, Submerge, Unmask, Misdirection, Daze, Depletion Lands, Game Preserve, Foster, Thwart, Foil, Blastoderm, Skyshroud Ridgeback, Food Chain, Cave-In, Saproling Burst, Nether Spirit, Other Seals besides Fire (make my goyf bigger), Chimeric Idol (no mana burn makes this cool), Bribery, the best Brainstorm picture, Sunff Out, War Cadence (cause it reminds me of my favorite Slayer song).
Lol @ Doris Day.
Modern Storm deck is already ridiculous with Desperate Ravings, Past in Flames, and Pyromancer Ascension. Faithless looting is a great filter though.
Past in Flames was the mistake. I promise. That card will see standard play now even with just the Looting card. Desperate Ravings + Looting + Alchemy = One-stop shopping/Great Selection.
IDK if Looting will make Dredge more viable in Modern because the I have been seeing BUG Dredgevine, which means they would have to splash and find other justification for red but this could be strong enough.
As far as Legacy Dredge, I could see this making the cut. I mean, 12 Careful Studies would not be all that bad, right?
nvm
This would be the MTGO equivalent of drawing a royal flush, TWICE! Srsly, bro, buy a lottery ticket.
new ptv submitted, waiting for it to be put up :)
I actually appreciate the fact that people don't cherry pick their draft videos because it shows that even the best of us are susceptible to mistakes. No one 3-1/4-0s and/or makes the right picks every time.
Thanks for showing us your learning process.
Apart from the fact that i hate watching videos when i want to read an article, where is the content?
Recording a random draft and writing up 3 lines of text doesn't seem that noteworthy.
I am sure you can do better.
u madd bro?
You should think of the randomness in this way: Every possible combination of cards is equally probable. Therefore, these things should happen. They don't usually happen in real life because manual shuffling is pseudo-random at best.
The standard rand() function of c++ (might be used here?) can produce up to 10^6 "good random values" so that shuffling a 60 card deck is to be considered random.
By my up-too-late math, you would have about .000402% chance of drawing 13 lands out of 14 cards from your deck. That's 1 out of 2487562. Odds of dying in a car accident in America this year? Something like 1 out of 6500.
Hey just wanted to drop in and say I really liked this article. I've considered writing articles on "competitive casual" myself from time to time, as I love building fun decks and playing them in the casual room. Beating decks chock full of all the power mythics with a bunch of commons and uncommons and junk rares is rather rewarding :)
Close but no cigar - I am loving classic right now though! Thanks WOTC for slow rolling P9 !
I had to look those up, I think they would be interesting but sadly they are uncommon.
How come my best student can make such newbie mistakes? Draft 1 was awful, Rick. But it's for your readers to see what NOT to do!
Some minor flaws playing, but those i'll comment live, if you want.
Anyway, keep on doing the good job you're doing.
Xkorpio went 3-1 with 4 Libraries main last night.
Since the Caw in Caw-Blade originally replaced the Draw in Draw-Go, and given that your Sword carriers are mostly at instant speed (with early permission up), I say we put the Draw back in the Caw and call it "Draw-Blade."
I'd love to see a decklist if you have one. By no means am I claiming that this is the best possible version.
Oh, another opinion I agree with: Morkrut Banshee is really an underperformer most of the time. Nowadays I think it's much worse than it looks.
Thanks for all the comments so far!
I do agree with a lot of the suggestions - like I said, these drafts are from a couple weeks ago, and since then many of my notions about the format have changed. For example, I think I didn't value Travel Preparations high enough in the first draft.
Other cases come down to personal preference. Vampire Interloper has been truly awesome in my experience, and it's something that aggressive black decks (especially black-red) want to have multiples of. Reckless Waif, well, nowadays I like it much more than I did back then, but I still seem to like it a lot less than grandpoohbah does. Not only is it in the worst color of the format in my opinion, I also think it is generally just worse than the cheap 2-power flyer. Or Cobbled Wings, for example - I just don't think it's generally a good card at all.
Either way, the next draft I'll post will be a more accurate representation of the pick priorities as I see them nowadays, and it's likely the best deck I've built in the format so far. So hang on. :)