Sorry man. I hate conspiracy theories. I know we landed on the moon, and I can accept that there was no shooter on the grassy knoll. Also I am 100% assured that Bigfoot can not possibly exist because they are Primates, and Primates need a massive amount of male and female in the population because Primates, unlike most mammals, are very monogamous.
What I can tell you is that the owner of the largest store in the area and a guy I know opening a store soon both told me that MTGO traders controls the price market online. It may be their word, or it may be the printout they get from MTGO traders of what the prices are to put into their bot.
Explain me this, since you believe the market is determined by supply and demand. At a slow time during a middle of the week day, I counted the number of ISD limited games that occurred, did all the math, packs won/packs used, etc.. There are well over 500 snapcasters opened per hour. But Snappy stayed at exactly $8 and didn't move for close to a month. Even though the market was flooded with them, they wouldn't go down.
It took the release of DKA to lower the price of Snappy since S&D would suggest that Snappy would be a $5 card. The price in paper is correct though, because sometimes getting a rare is more difficult than opening a Mythic based on the variety. Even when Grafdiggers cage was "spoiled" snappy didn't move more than 0.02 from it's $8 perch.
Look, Heath got in with his business at the right time. But if you think the entire secondary MTGO market isn't rigged, you are joking yourself.
There is absolutely no way the market runs on S&D.
There is a 0.10 % chance (I believe it is around 0.13ish but not the point) of opening a Liliana, but there is only a 0.08% chance of opening up Garruk. So why the price difference since there should be less Garruks in the system than Liliana's? And Foil Garruk is even rarer.
And if you are a casual player, you shouldn't be playing anything but Limited. It doesn't make sense. You will never be able to have a competitive deck unless you are willing to spend money, and those people would be better off drafting while selling whatever they open.
And here is what you buy.
Isolated Chapel
Sulfur Falls
Snapcaster Mage
Full Art ZEN lands.
Hold those in your collection for a year or so, you should make 3x your money, barring inflation or bannings.
@MBeasley, it sounds like you have a lot of specialized knowledge and keep up with the paper pro tournament scene. I think you take it for granted that everyone does that. Pete's comments seemed more directed to people who have no insight into how the markets work and have been messaging him in game.
Not saying your advice is wrong, it seems pretty solid. But some of the stuff like understanding the ups and downs of standard dual lands isn't intuitive without really following prices for a year or seeing those trends written about in an article. Think about the random casual player who logs on twice a week and only buys cards once a month or so. To him, prices are just random because he's not following them and not in touch with the reasons why they are going up and down. I think that's who Pete's comments were directed towards.
What I'm saying is you shouldn't give away all this advice for free. You know what you're talking about, write some investing/speculating articles.
Conspiracy Theory much? If you feel MTGOTraders is the bad guy why are you here posting on his site?
I like some of your general ideas about card value but I am rofl about your take on Heath and company. Imho Heath has NOT now or ever rigged prices. I certainly wouldn't have interviewed the guy if I thought that was the case.
That's not to say he doesn't have influence on the market. All the retailers in the game do. Collectively. And he sets his prices according to how he feels he can best profit. Others follow suit. Because Heath isn't an idiot the market looks to him as a leader. That isn't to say he doesn't take losses because I know he does.
Look, fine article. But speculating is so damn simple.
Explain to me how you don't know what is going to go up, I mean besides from Heath who rigs the market?
You buy staples. Like last week Ramp Run wasn't the biggest deck winning tournaments. So the main cards in RR were dropping. Does that mean that Primeval Titan is a bad card? No. Does it mean you can buy it relatively inexpensive at that moment in time because it isn't being net-decked at the moment? Primeval Titan is still great, and Ramp Run is still a great deck. So when the card dropped, you bought it. Now this weekend everyone is running ramp. So buy P. Titan (HIs new rap name).
I don't think you can speculate on Modern and Classic though. Too many banning's to invest and lose all you put in. But fetch lands are fetch lands. If you want to put your tix in something, that is probably the way to go.
Then you have simply put, non-basic lands. Buy them now. They always go up. Why does investing always have to be short term? I in paper you would take a P3P1 Isolated Chapel because it can be traded for a good amount of stuff.
Your idea that this isn't a stock is flawed. A stock is nothing more than (now) an electronic document that states that you have paid in order to share in the profits of a company you believe will do well. It is nothing more than a receipt just like you would get from a grocery store. It has no meaning other than you have paid that company money in order for them to use that money to make more money. The whole "owning stocks means you own a share of the company" is complete BS. That isn't how it works unless you are a minority or majority shareholder. (Minority being 1-5% depending on the market share).
If anything, this is more of a tangible asset. Not only can you invest and speculate, but you can also use the cards online. That means they are technically 50% better than stocks, minus the whole dividend thing.
But think of this. Why not buy and hold? There are a ton of things you can buy and hold for a long time that have to go up based on supply and demand, or until Heath stops manipulating the prices. (42 for a sword, or +$10 in less than 36 hours? Come on Heath)
Zendikar full art lands are something that will go up over time because they look nice and they are -$3.42 less than Unhinged lands. You can buy them in bulk and make a lot of money over time. People do that in paper. If you can get 20 for less than 0.50 a piece, then good luck.
And using interviews with WotC R&D, they already have the 3rd set of the unglued saga done, they just don't want to release it online until the price of Unhinged lands become so massive people will no longer buy them at all. Hear that Heath?
Or what about cards that will be used forever? Like anything in blue? How about Snapcaster Mage. Tell me that won't be used 5 years from now. So for the current price, now that MTGOtraders could no longer force it to be exactly $8 for that long, although they put up a good fight with S&D, it is a sound card to invest tix in because it will transcend formats.
The change is bad because if you entered with boosters in a draft and got a refund you could get everything in tix which is usually better than boosters + 2 tix.
For fun (not so cut throat) tribal decks stick to Just for Fun (advertising in chat that you are looking for Tribal Wars Legacy players) and hope you meet people not testing for the Apocalypse. Those tend to be cut throat and not fun at all. If you want more of a challenge the Apocalypse starts at GMT -5 on Saturdays, and people start registering a half hour before. That translates into 12pm eastern and 11:30am eastern before DST. During DST it gains an hour (1pm edt and 12:30pm edt).
If this is written elsewhere, I apologize. I've always been a fan of tribal based MTG, but it's been tough to find someone to play with. Finally, I've gotten into MTGO and now want to get involved in these events.
Could someone tell me what I need to do to join, or when they're held?
Thanks a ton in advance. I've got a fun Samurai and Elemental deck I want to bring to the table.
I agree and disagree. Some speculating is just obvious though. If you buy Shocklands during they summer they will go up a lot in 6 months. It happens the same way every year.
I agree with this post generally, except for the strident tone. Most people would do well to heed Pete Jahn's advice though and stay away from speculating. It takes some practice and discipline, and to get to that point you are probably going to make mistakes, lose tix, and be frustrated.
Re: changes in refunding. Well, the old system wasn't really so time intensive. Once you got the coupon, it was just a matter of a few clicks in the store. To me, the new system is worse because the old system allowed me to get the virtual value of the std packs (4 tix each), instead of the current market value, which is always lower. Sometimes I just changed my mind after an aborted event, or I was playing with packs I had won, and the timely technical issue granted me a number of tix I would never get by selling the packs. Plus, WotC used to add some bonus tix to account for "moral damage" (usually 2 more). I assume now they will just put back whatever I consumed for the botched event. (Yeah, people like me, with not a good draft record, would be very happy in case of a tech issue within a limited event, because that would mean free drafted cards!)
first: thanks for not just tearing into me for what I am saying. I am definitely always on the "don't ban it, just build around it"...
second: am I the devil? cool. Can I be Hellrider?
The issue I am trying to bring to the table here is that SFM in off-tribe white decks gave those decks an alternate plan. I don't see how this is any more abusive than jamming eldrazi into off-tribe big mana decks.
When you cut off one head, two grow back. Isn't the banned list long and comprehensive enough? Do we really need to relegate this issue to tribal restriction?
1_The first thing you have to do is go to your local, yet very large store and ask them where they get their bot prices, and they will tell you that MTGOTraders run the market, so the prices are pre-determined. They even get a print-out. Those are some of the cool things you learn when someone you know is opening a store.
A great example of this is how the market was manipulated on Snapcaster Mage. It wasn't worth 8 tickets. On a slow day prior to DKA being released, there were over 500 snapcasters opened per hour based on drafts and the numbers of packs won/used. The number stayed exactly at $8 even though online the market was flooded with them.
2_Be smarter than the average player. The value of a card is not determined by whether or not it is played on camera. That is a very small sample, and what you wrote about rooftop storm is complete BS. I mean Huntmaster was used at the PTQ, in the top 8 even, but it continually dropped.
And the BS you said about trading is exactly how you trade. When I saw a guy was playing the Zombie deck, I bought Garalf's messenger throughout the entire first game of that match for 4 tickets a piece and sold them for 6 tickets a piece. Then it stabilized at around 5, while Gravecrawler did the same movement, but dropped close to 4.
3_ Know what a staple is. If you can outsmart people, which isn't hard, you can make tickets on trading all the time.
Does anyone remember when Thrun wasn't very good and people were selling him for $4? And it took a 4 year old with a dungrove Elder and a Sword of War and Peace to figure out Thrun was good and it went up to $15? The same goes for Hero of Bladehold. It was $4. People didn't like it because they weren't using it. They wer buying Tezzeret instead. How did that work out. Remember when Spellskite was exactly $4? I mean look at the cheap cards out there. Falkenrath Aristocrat, Garruk Relentless, Increasing Confusion, Thalia, and Dungeon Geist.
So I have bought Vorapede as the next Thrun at $4 a piece. And undying is maybe one of the best mechanics ever made. So I am taking advantage of it.
4_ Buy non-basic lands. Um anyone see the prices of non-basic lands from SOM? This happens all the time. Oh ISD lands suck because there are so many. Ok, Then buy ISD lands. They will be worth a lot after SOM cycles out. That happens all the time with non-basic lands. You guys just see the here and now and forget that this is just like the damn stock market, but you have to take advantage of when MTGOtraders make their moves.
5_ Know when to buy. I knew Sword of War and Peace would drop prior to the pre-release. People who had 1 of's, or only 2, they would sell them. Every mythic across the board every time a new set comes out so people could play the pre-release, get the cards at 1000-2000% of their actual price, sell the cards, then re-buy them.
I bought a playset of Sword of War and Peace for 33 a piece when it was over 40 prior to the release.
6_ Take advantage of a system based on an antiquated pricing system. They don't deal with speculation, and therefor they buy things at their highs and sell at lows.
I can tell you the decks that will be played prior to them getting played. I bought Consecrated Sphinx at 9 because I knew U/B control was making a comeback prior to the PTQ. How did I know? Did I hack MTGO Traders? No. I saw that the price of Darkslick Shores was spiking at insane speeds, but Seachrome coast was not moving enough for it just to be a spike from Spirits.
You can take advantage of bots very easily as long as you are smarter than where the prices come from, and study your history.
Oh and if every card on TV spikes in value, how come Dungeon Geist has actually gone down since the PTQ? Actually the entire Delver deck has dropped, and all it's forms have dropped in price. Except Lingering Souls. I can't believe I sold a foil one during the pre-release to some idiot for 10 tix, and the regulars for 5. That was fantastic.
Devil's advocate: I shoved in an Ulamog as an off-tribe (but on-theme! it was the 9th indestructible creature and 5th colorless vindicate) creature in my gargoyles deck a couple of months back.
I disagree about the strictly worse comment. You have to build it tight. You definitely don't have a lot of room for fun cards but there are MANY tribes that are strictly better than even a tuned Goblins or Elves deck never mind the piles of the easy button tribes we see occasionally.
As a spike I also sympathize with your viewpoint regarding pegasi and rebels. Fun but not competitive without some edge. That's not to say those tribes can't win at all. Given a good draw vs a less good draw any deck pretty much can win. :/
I put her in Rebels. Otherwise, I have no shot. I also put her in a Pegasus deck, otherwise I would have had no shot. Look, I like building decks bu I also like to think I have a chance to win...Spike.
Artificers *might* be playable because of SFM and the splicers, but they are still just strictly worse than elves or gobbos....
Thanks for addressing this anyway. I am just predicting the next "ban/restriction".
Plus, every Tribe you listed there are big mana tribes and Eldrazi are Drones, so it makes sense that Eldrazi are being jammed in there. Also, there is no such thing as "off color" and everything Eldrazi are in except nonDrone decks are off Tribe.
Maybe it is time that I bring big mana decks and Eldrazi every week just to push the issue? (I guess this also implies that I will win a bunch, which may not be the truth).
The "Big Eldrazi" only appear in specific archetypes, such as Wall/PlantDrazi, Emmy Elves, Drones, etc. They are not shoved in randomly as an "off tribe" creature. You have to build your deck around bringing them out.
SFM was jammed in any tribal shell as an "off tribe" creature on a *very* frequent basis for equipment shenanigans. How many of the 39 SFM's that appeared in 2012 so far (it's the 9th most played non-land card) were "on tribe"? Not a one.
So can we restrict the "big" Eldrazi's to Eldrazi decks now. Because that is the logical next step...in fact, I think this event would be infinitely more interesting if one were to never deviate from the selected tribe in their deck. If you choose Constructs, then play all constructs...This would also make it hard to play decks like Dredge, which no one likes anyway...
Sorry, but there is no reason that Plants or Walls should ever win events unless they Banefire you, if we follow the logic of this Stoneforge restriction...
Of course, I am the only opponent to this decision, strictly due to the fact that I think it sets a bad precedent...
I agree that the only way to make real money is to be a mtgotraders.com and be well supplied with cards. Predicting prices is at best very risky for most people.
But the causal player with time on his or her hands can make money on a smaller scale.
Trading: Exploit price differences between different chains. Mtgotraders.com basically sets the market benchmark price and other chains follow. But plenty of chains have websites with prices – both buy and sell prices. It is not too difficult to make a few tix by matching up a low sell price from one bot to a high sell price from another bot. A good example is to keep an eye on the hotlist on mtgotraders.com. It is almost always possible to tix by buying up these cards from other bonds and sell then to mtgotraders.com. This is a low risk, low gain strategy. But you can make perhaps 5-10 tix in an hour. Standard card prices are usually very competitive across bots, but cards from other formats fluctuate or drift in price.
Investing: Instead of predicting prices and invest accordingly, the causal player with some tixs can also make money by investing. You can often find a high priced card that has drifted to a low price over time. For example a card like a foil Orim’s Chant. Buy it at 60% of the mtgotraders.com price and wait for a bot to buy it back for a price of perhaps 80% of the mtgotraders.com price. This strategy is a little more risky but still possible.
These strategies exploit market inefficiency but have become less profitable over time because the market is more transparent now than it used to be.
First of all, thanks for this series, a must-read.
Anyway, in case if you´re interested, if you can provide me the files you receive from MTGOTRADERS.COM, I can provide you for free some graphs/tables regarding statistics concerning biggest price changes and the likes for your post in a weekly-basis, much like Erik used to do.
LMK at davi1710@gmail.com if you´re interested so we can work on the details.
In a non-related note, i´m not an english native speaker, so i hope this post is understandable.
The one match might also come once in a lifetime, if the deck is really the most complicate and ambitious ever (think of a deck where every card is part of a single, gigantic endgame combo). And that will be the veritable triumph of that deck, exactly like if it won a PTQ.
Every deck sooner or later delivers. Of course, if your deck just tries to win in the most simple and plain way, and fails to do so most of the times, there will not be any satisfaction when it does.
But the point is exactly this: build ambitious decks, and then cherish the times when they do what they were supposed to do (the more ambitious and overcomplicated they are, the fewer these times will be, of course. The challenge is to make them work more and more often, but it doesn't really matter as long as they work enough).
This is the life of a Johnny. And this is the reason AJ is a legend: because he might well be the living illustration of Johnny (and that's why I was worried when he looked a bit dispirited for a moment, some weeks ago).
And btw, post-it notes are always useful to remind us of the things we already know and keep forgetting. If we write the right words on them, they are never wasted.
There are a couple of links to various parts of the PDCMagic website scattered throughout the article. That's the site that the tournaments are more or less run through. if you follow this link "http://forums.pdcmagic.com/viewtopic.php?t=5913" it should take you directly to the post with the specifics of the current Peasant season.
As for Rule of Law, it would definitely shut down any storm-based decks unless they can hit it with a duress or a well-timed echoing truth. Outside of that, it doesn't really affect most other decks much. More often than not, you want to pick uncommons that you're going to run maindeck so that the increased power level of those cards will have an impact on a greater percentage of your games.
Sorry man. I hate conspiracy theories. I know we landed on the moon, and I can accept that there was no shooter on the grassy knoll. Also I am 100% assured that Bigfoot can not possibly exist because they are Primates, and Primates need a massive amount of male and female in the population because Primates, unlike most mammals, are very monogamous.
What I can tell you is that the owner of the largest store in the area and a guy I know opening a store soon both told me that MTGO traders controls the price market online. It may be their word, or it may be the printout they get from MTGO traders of what the prices are to put into their bot.
Explain me this, since you believe the market is determined by supply and demand. At a slow time during a middle of the week day, I counted the number of ISD limited games that occurred, did all the math, packs won/packs used, etc.. There are well over 500 snapcasters opened per hour. But Snappy stayed at exactly $8 and didn't move for close to a month. Even though the market was flooded with them, they wouldn't go down.
It took the release of DKA to lower the price of Snappy since S&D would suggest that Snappy would be a $5 card. The price in paper is correct though, because sometimes getting a rare is more difficult than opening a Mythic based on the variety. Even when Grafdiggers cage was "spoiled" snappy didn't move more than 0.02 from it's $8 perch.
Look, Heath got in with his business at the right time. But if you think the entire secondary MTGO market isn't rigged, you are joking yourself.
There is absolutely no way the market runs on S&D.
There is a 0.10 % chance (I believe it is around 0.13ish but not the point) of opening a Liliana, but there is only a 0.08% chance of opening up Garruk. So why the price difference since there should be less Garruks in the system than Liliana's? And Foil Garruk is even rarer.
And if you are a casual player, you shouldn't be playing anything but Limited. It doesn't make sense. You will never be able to have a competitive deck unless you are willing to spend money, and those people would be better off drafting while selling whatever they open.
And here is what you buy.
Isolated Chapel
Sulfur Falls
Snapcaster Mage
Full Art ZEN lands.
Hold those in your collection for a year or so, you should make 3x your money, barring inflation or bannings.
@MBeasley, it sounds like you have a lot of specialized knowledge and keep up with the paper pro tournament scene. I think you take it for granted that everyone does that. Pete's comments seemed more directed to people who have no insight into how the markets work and have been messaging him in game.
Not saying your advice is wrong, it seems pretty solid. But some of the stuff like understanding the ups and downs of standard dual lands isn't intuitive without really following prices for a year or seeing those trends written about in an article. Think about the random casual player who logs on twice a week and only buys cards once a month or so. To him, prices are just random because he's not following them and not in touch with the reasons why they are going up and down. I think that's who Pete's comments were directed towards.
What I'm saying is you shouldn't give away all this advice for free. You know what you're talking about, write some investing/speculating articles.
Conspiracy Theory much? If you feel MTGOTraders is the bad guy why are you here posting on his site?
I like some of your general ideas about card value but I am rofl about your take on Heath and company. Imho Heath has NOT now or ever rigged prices. I certainly wouldn't have interviewed the guy if I thought that was the case.
That's not to say he doesn't have influence on the market. All the retailers in the game do. Collectively. And he sets his prices according to how he feels he can best profit. Others follow suit. Because Heath isn't an idiot the market looks to him as a leader. That isn't to say he doesn't take losses because I know he does.
Look, fine article. But speculating is so damn simple.
Explain to me how you don't know what is going to go up, I mean besides from Heath who rigs the market?
You buy staples. Like last week Ramp Run wasn't the biggest deck winning tournaments. So the main cards in RR were dropping. Does that mean that Primeval Titan is a bad card? No. Does it mean you can buy it relatively inexpensive at that moment in time because it isn't being net-decked at the moment? Primeval Titan is still great, and Ramp Run is still a great deck. So when the card dropped, you bought it. Now this weekend everyone is running ramp. So buy P. Titan (HIs new rap name).
I don't think you can speculate on Modern and Classic though. Too many banning's to invest and lose all you put in. But fetch lands are fetch lands. If you want to put your tix in something, that is probably the way to go.
Then you have simply put, non-basic lands. Buy them now. They always go up. Why does investing always have to be short term? I in paper you would take a P3P1 Isolated Chapel because it can be traded for a good amount of stuff.
Your idea that this isn't a stock is flawed. A stock is nothing more than (now) an electronic document that states that you have paid in order to share in the profits of a company you believe will do well. It is nothing more than a receipt just like you would get from a grocery store. It has no meaning other than you have paid that company money in order for them to use that money to make more money. The whole "owning stocks means you own a share of the company" is complete BS. That isn't how it works unless you are a minority or majority shareholder. (Minority being 1-5% depending on the market share).
If anything, this is more of a tangible asset. Not only can you invest and speculate, but you can also use the cards online. That means they are technically 50% better than stocks, minus the whole dividend thing.
But think of this. Why not buy and hold? There are a ton of things you can buy and hold for a long time that have to go up based on supply and demand, or until Heath stops manipulating the prices. (42 for a sword, or +$10 in less than 36 hours? Come on Heath)
Zendikar full art lands are something that will go up over time because they look nice and they are -$3.42 less than Unhinged lands. You can buy them in bulk and make a lot of money over time. People do that in paper. If you can get 20 for less than 0.50 a piece, then good luck.
And using interviews with WotC R&D, they already have the 3rd set of the unglued saga done, they just don't want to release it online until the price of Unhinged lands become so massive people will no longer buy them at all. Hear that Heath?
Or what about cards that will be used forever? Like anything in blue? How about Snapcaster Mage. Tell me that won't be used 5 years from now. So for the current price, now that MTGOtraders could no longer force it to be exactly $8 for that long, although they put up a good fight with S&D, it is a sound card to invest tix in because it will transcend formats.
The change is bad because if you entered with boosters in a draft and got a refund you could get everything in tix which is usually better than boosters + 2 tix.
For fun (not so cut throat) tribal decks stick to Just for Fun (advertising in chat that you are looking for Tribal Wars Legacy players) and hope you meet people not testing for the Apocalypse. Those tend to be cut throat and not fun at all. If you want more of a challenge the Apocalypse starts at GMT -5 on Saturdays, and people start registering a half hour before. That translates into 12pm eastern and 11:30am eastern before DST. During DST it gains an hour (1pm edt and 12:30pm edt).
If this is written elsewhere, I apologize. I've always been a fan of tribal based MTG, but it's been tough to find someone to play with. Finally, I've gotten into MTGO and now want to get involved in these events.
Could someone tell me what I need to do to join, or when they're held?
Thanks a ton in advance. I've got a fun Samurai and Elemental deck I want to bring to the table.
Cheers
Then my mission is clear.
EDIT: What i mean by that is "copy that"
I agree and disagree. Some speculating is just obvious though. If you buy Shocklands during they summer they will go up a lot in 6 months. It happens the same way every year.
I agree with this post generally, except for the strident tone. Most people would do well to heed Pete Jahn's advice though and stay away from speculating. It takes some practice and discipline, and to get to that point you are probably going to make mistakes, lose tix, and be frustrated.
Thanks for being so honest with us Pete. Your article is invaluable and there's a reason it's the most read series on PureMTGO.
Re: changes in refunding. Well, the old system wasn't really so time intensive. Once you got the coupon, it was just a matter of a few clicks in the store. To me, the new system is worse because the old system allowed me to get the virtual value of the std packs (4 tix each), instead of the current market value, which is always lower. Sometimes I just changed my mind after an aborted event, or I was playing with packs I had won, and the timely technical issue granted me a number of tix I would never get by selling the packs. Plus, WotC used to add some bonus tix to account for "moral damage" (usually 2 more). I assume now they will just put back whatever I consumed for the botched event. (Yeah, people like me, with not a good draft record, would be very happy in case of a tech issue within a limited event, because that would mean free drafted cards!)
I have no intention of banning/restricting the "big eldrazi". SFM remains restricted.
first: thanks for not just tearing into me for what I am saying. I am definitely always on the "don't ban it, just build around it"...
second: am I the devil? cool. Can I be Hellrider?
The issue I am trying to bring to the table here is that SFM in off-tribe white decks gave those decks an alternate plan. I don't see how this is any more abusive than jamming eldrazi into off-tribe big mana decks.
When you cut off one head, two grow back. Isn't the banned list long and comprehensive enough? Do we really need to relegate this issue to tribal restriction?
Making money on cards is a very simple process.
1_The first thing you have to do is go to your local, yet very large store and ask them where they get their bot prices, and they will tell you that MTGOTraders run the market, so the prices are pre-determined. They even get a print-out. Those are some of the cool things you learn when someone you know is opening a store.
A great example of this is how the market was manipulated on Snapcaster Mage. It wasn't worth 8 tickets. On a slow day prior to DKA being released, there were over 500 snapcasters opened per hour based on drafts and the numbers of packs won/used. The number stayed exactly at $8 even though online the market was flooded with them.
2_Be smarter than the average player. The value of a card is not determined by whether or not it is played on camera. That is a very small sample, and what you wrote about rooftop storm is complete BS. I mean Huntmaster was used at the PTQ, in the top 8 even, but it continually dropped.
And the BS you said about trading is exactly how you trade. When I saw a guy was playing the Zombie deck, I bought Garalf's messenger throughout the entire first game of that match for 4 tickets a piece and sold them for 6 tickets a piece. Then it stabilized at around 5, while Gravecrawler did the same movement, but dropped close to 4.
3_ Know what a staple is. If you can outsmart people, which isn't hard, you can make tickets on trading all the time.
Does anyone remember when Thrun wasn't very good and people were selling him for $4? And it took a 4 year old with a dungrove Elder and a Sword of War and Peace to figure out Thrun was good and it went up to $15? The same goes for Hero of Bladehold. It was $4. People didn't like it because they weren't using it. They wer buying Tezzeret instead. How did that work out. Remember when Spellskite was exactly $4? I mean look at the cheap cards out there. Falkenrath Aristocrat, Garruk Relentless, Increasing Confusion, Thalia, and Dungeon Geist.
So I have bought Vorapede as the next Thrun at $4 a piece. And undying is maybe one of the best mechanics ever made. So I am taking advantage of it.
4_ Buy non-basic lands. Um anyone see the prices of non-basic lands from SOM? This happens all the time. Oh ISD lands suck because there are so many. Ok, Then buy ISD lands. They will be worth a lot after SOM cycles out. That happens all the time with non-basic lands. You guys just see the here and now and forget that this is just like the damn stock market, but you have to take advantage of when MTGOtraders make their moves.
5_ Know when to buy. I knew Sword of War and Peace would drop prior to the pre-release. People who had 1 of's, or only 2, they would sell them. Every mythic across the board every time a new set comes out so people could play the pre-release, get the cards at 1000-2000% of their actual price, sell the cards, then re-buy them.
I bought a playset of Sword of War and Peace for 33 a piece when it was over 40 prior to the release.
6_ Take advantage of a system based on an antiquated pricing system. They don't deal with speculation, and therefor they buy things at their highs and sell at lows.
I can tell you the decks that will be played prior to them getting played. I bought Consecrated Sphinx at 9 because I knew U/B control was making a comeback prior to the PTQ. How did I know? Did I hack MTGO Traders? No. I saw that the price of Darkslick Shores was spiking at insane speeds, but Seachrome coast was not moving enough for it just to be a spike from Spirits.
You can take advantage of bots very easily as long as you are smarter than where the prices come from, and study your history.
Oh and if every card on TV spikes in value, how come Dungeon Geist has actually gone down since the PTQ? Actually the entire Delver deck has dropped, and all it's forms have dropped in price. Except Lingering Souls. I can't believe I sold a foil one during the pre-release to some idiot for 10 tix, and the regulars for 5. That was fantastic.
Devil's advocate: I shoved in an Ulamog as an off-tribe (but on-theme! it was the 9th indestructible creature and 5th colorless vindicate) creature in my gargoyles deck a couple of months back.
I disagree about the strictly worse comment. You have to build it tight. You definitely don't have a lot of room for fun cards but there are MANY tribes that are strictly better than even a tuned Goblins or Elves deck never mind the piles of the easy button tribes we see occasionally.
As a spike I also sympathize with your viewpoint regarding pegasi and rebels. Fun but not competitive without some edge. That's not to say those tribes can't win at all. Given a good draw vs a less good draw any deck pretty much can win. :/
Who plays Kor other than Sbena or ScionofJustice?
I put her in Rebels. Otherwise, I have no shot. I also put her in a Pegasus deck, otherwise I would have had no shot. Look, I like building decks bu I also like to think I have a chance to win...Spike.
Artificers *might* be playable because of SFM and the splicers, but they are still just strictly worse than elves or gobbos....
Thanks for addressing this anyway. I am just predicting the next "ban/restriction".
Plus, every Tribe you listed there are big mana tribes and Eldrazi are Drones, so it makes sense that Eldrazi are being jammed in there. Also, there is no such thing as "off color" and everything Eldrazi are in except nonDrone decks are off Tribe.
Maybe it is time that I bring big mana decks and Eldrazi every week just to push the issue? (I guess this also implies that I will win a bunch, which may not be the truth).
The "Big Eldrazi" only appear in specific archetypes, such as Wall/PlantDrazi, Emmy Elves, Drones, etc. They are not shoved in randomly as an "off tribe" creature. You have to build your deck around bringing them out.
SFM was jammed in any tribal shell as an "off tribe" creature on a *very* frequent basis for equipment shenanigans. How many of the 39 SFM's that appeared in 2012 so far (it's the 9th most played non-land card) were "on tribe"? Not a one.
So can we restrict the "big" Eldrazi's to Eldrazi decks now. Because that is the logical next step...in fact, I think this event would be infinitely more interesting if one were to never deviate from the selected tribe in their deck. If you choose Constructs, then play all constructs...This would also make it hard to play decks like Dredge, which no one likes anyway...
Sorry, but there is no reason that Plants or Walls should ever win events unless they Banefire you, if we follow the logic of this Stoneforge restriction...
Of course, I am the only opponent to this decision, strictly due to the fact that I think it sets a bad precedent...
I agree that the only way to make real money is to be a mtgotraders.com and be well supplied with cards. Predicting prices is at best very risky for most people.
But the causal player with time on his or her hands can make money on a smaller scale.
Trading: Exploit price differences between different chains. Mtgotraders.com basically sets the market benchmark price and other chains follow. But plenty of chains have websites with prices – both buy and sell prices. It is not too difficult to make a few tix by matching up a low sell price from one bot to a high sell price from another bot. A good example is to keep an eye on the hotlist on mtgotraders.com. It is almost always possible to tix by buying up these cards from other bonds and sell then to mtgotraders.com. This is a low risk, low gain strategy. But you can make perhaps 5-10 tix in an hour. Standard card prices are usually very competitive across bots, but cards from other formats fluctuate or drift in price.
Investing: Instead of predicting prices and invest accordingly, the causal player with some tixs can also make money by investing. You can often find a high priced card that has drifted to a low price over time. For example a card like a foil Orim’s Chant. Buy it at 60% of the mtgotraders.com price and wait for a bot to buy it back for a price of perhaps 80% of the mtgotraders.com price. This strategy is a little more risky but still possible.
These strategies exploit market inefficiency but have become less profitable over time because the market is more transparent now than it used to be.
Hello Pete
First of all, thanks for this series, a must-read.
Anyway, in case if you´re interested, if you can provide me the files you receive from MTGOTRADERS.COM, I can provide you for free some graphs/tables regarding statistics concerning biggest price changes and the likes for your post in a weekly-basis, much like Erik used to do.
LMK at davi1710@gmail.com if you´re interested so we can work on the details.
In a non-related note, i´m not an english native speaker, so i hope this post is understandable.
Regards
Davi
Unless you forget where you put them. :) Anyway I think I am Johnny enough to build interesting decks. They just typically fail the shark test.
The one match might also come once in a lifetime, if the deck is really the most complicate and ambitious ever (think of a deck where every card is part of a single, gigantic endgame combo). And that will be the veritable triumph of that deck, exactly like if it won a PTQ.
Every deck sooner or later delivers. Of course, if your deck just tries to win in the most simple and plain way, and fails to do so most of the times, there will not be any satisfaction when it does.
But the point is exactly this: build ambitious decks, and then cherish the times when they do what they were supposed to do (the more ambitious and overcomplicated they are, the fewer these times will be, of course. The challenge is to make them work more and more often, but it doesn't really matter as long as they work enough).
This is the life of a Johnny. And this is the reason AJ is a legend: because he might well be the living illustration of Johnny (and that's why I was worried when he looked a bit dispirited for a moment, some weeks ago).
And btw, post-it notes are always useful to remind us of the things we already know and keep forgetting. If we write the right words on them, they are never wasted.
There are a couple of links to various parts of the PDCMagic website scattered throughout the article. That's the site that the tournaments are more or less run through. if you follow this link "http://forums.pdcmagic.com/viewtopic.php?t=5913" it should take you directly to the post with the specifics of the current Peasant season.
As for Rule of Law, it would definitely shut down any storm-based decks unless they can hit it with a duress or a well-timed echoing truth. Outside of that, it doesn't really affect most other decks much. More often than not, you want to pick uncommons that you're going to run maindeck so that the increased power level of those cards will have an impact on a greater percentage of your games.