A good article. Going infinite on MTGO is a dream every player shares. I look forward to seeing if you can make it! There's been a lot of discussion about your baseline for pack price, but looking at it from a complete layman's view, it makes sense to me. The cost of entering a 4 pack sealed is 16 tickets or 4 boosters (which would be 4 tix per booster). If you win the event, you get 5 packs or 20 tickets value plus whatever you can sell from the card pool. If you finish 2-1, you get 3 packs or 12 tickets value and so on. I think this is a good basis for understanding the concept of going infinite for someone like me, who doesn't have an advanced degree in finance or economics and also doesn't like calculating things down to the .00x value.
Also, I believe you said you switched between M12 and AVR for the first 10 sealed events? Which of the 10 in were AVR and which ones were M12? I'm also interested in seeing how your profit/loss graph changes as M13 4 packed sealed events go online and with it, the learning curve of how a new set will factor into your win/loss percentage.
I didn't say you were myopic I said you seemed myopic. And this isn't an insult but an observation. Because you seem to me to be missing stuff that should be right in front of your nose. Such as the fact that error message YOU described isn't one that gets generated by the client.
It is in fact a Microsoft windows error that indicates there is something wrong with your framework files, your permissions or your windows installation. None of those are the fault of wizards.
Also Blaming them for that is like blaming random strangers for the bad breakfast you had.
And yes there is a point in you calling WOTC cs to get help with the problem. You love the game despite your frustrations and why throw out the baby with the bathwater?
I agree things would be better if everyone was respectful and kind but then again people differ in their ideas of respect and even what is kind.
And again expecting the world of strangers at large to be fair and kind and respectful seems myopic. Because you've been around the block enough to know the world at large isn't like that. And also this is again not the fault of Wizards or even their responsibility.
They can't possibly monitor every single deck list (there are millions of permutations) and determine which ones are off limits and if they could, that would be a huge drain on their resources. If you want people to do stuff for you, you have to at least make reasonable demands.
Not sure if you understand my point. There is no virus. When I ran the kicker, it didn't work. Simple as that. I suppose I could try to call support to rectify it, but would there be any point in doing so? When I'm called irrational and myopic simply for stating my opinions? Why should I show up just to be insulted whenever I have a thought that runs contrary to what anybody else thinks. The fault isn't mine- and this feels like blaming the victim when you say that I need to find a way to have fun with it. Why tell me to develop elephant skin? Wouldn't it be better if everyone else learned to treat other people with respect? At the very least, people could leave their competitive decks out of the casual room. It's not my fault for getting frustrated over that- it's their fault for being bullies when other people just want to sit back and enjoy a match with random cards they threw together. While it's not Wizards fault that such behavior arises, I do wish they would do more- perhaps a database of netdecks that tells you if you have a tier 1, 2 or 3 deck when you put it together. Then if you try to make or join a match in the casual room with a tier 1 deck, it won't let you. This is the sort of thing they could do to ensure parity in the various rooms.
You can be logged on to an admin level account and still not be running a program as an administrator.
Right clicking and selecting "Run as an Administrator" is how windows lets you override its permissions system.
Again as I said. This sounds like a windows problem. You are getting messages (FROM WINDOWS) about permissions that have garbled characters in them? That sounds like a virus or two. Or perhaps your .net files are corrupt/missing. In any case this is solvable if you look for help from the appropriate angle.
As for the cards you hate:
Well MTG is a game in progress. There is no end boss. It will never have one. This means it will always been an imperfect game for some of us. Which ones may vary at any given time. If your expectation is based on the game being polished and complete then you are going to be disappointed time and again.
In my opinion Wotc does fair job of weeding out the worst offenders but they are humans and stuff does get by (I personally thought the big 3 of ROE were not just mistakes but horrible for the casual fun only players out there.) That makes the game outrageous at times for some players but it also makes it interesting for others.
As for the rest, well your rant seems a little myopic. (Not to mention lacking in paragraphs but that just made it harder to read.)
Not to say all of your complaints are invalid either (communication definitely is something they need to work on) but lumping them all together and virtually waving your hands in the air because of all that seems like you are missing the big picture.
Particularly when you blame wizards for the david v Goliath syndrome that happens with ANY strategy based game. There will always be people who will beat you down and disregard your pleasure/pain in the process. Or maybe even seek to provoke the negative response so they can feed THEIR fragile egos. This has nothing to do with the game and everything to do with humanity. Learn to avoid the people who do this or develop elephant skin.
I KNOW you enjoy the game. You've spent the time and energy to write articles about it. Heck you spent time and energy to write these impassioned if not precisely rational sounding posts. But it sounds like you have become so frustrated by your woes that you have lost track of what matters. Finding a way to have fun with the game.
Being unable to log in maybe causing this but that isn't imho the fault of wizards. Though I expect if you called them they would do their best to give you technical support. (One thing few have complained about is their customer support.)
Did you give any feedback to WOTC on the forums or by email or even to an ORC or anyone else aside from here?
==Edit==
Also how on earth could you have been playing this as long as you have and not even know about the kicker much less not have run it? I am really disturbed by that. Was someone else taking care of it for you?
For card draw, there's a 1/1 rare from 9th edition or so called Archivist. It doesn't look like anything special, but a card each turn really adds up after a while.
I'm the only person on my computer and I've already set myself as an administrator. Usually, I get a box asking me if I want to let the program do its thing and I click on yes. Not so with the kicker- it wouldn't even let me get that far. Moreover, the text I saw was all jumbled: the result of bad programming.
Why do magic players put up with this? Why do they spend money on a faulty program to interact with other players who, let's face it, are really not that pleasant? Why do we sit through tournaments for three hours hoping to make a small gain when we could just easily take a job moonlighting somewhere and make a much larger profit? Why do magic players care more about the values of their cards than the experiences they give other players by using abusive, broken decks? Why does selfishness factor into everything around the game? Why do magic players always look at the next new thing, so excited about sets that haven't even come out yet when here there are plenty of cards yet to be tried? Are new cards more enjoyable than old cards simply because they're new? Why does Wizards design broken cards and then later say, "whoops, sorry?" Why is that even acceptable? Shouldn't we expect more when the card game has been around for as long as it has? If they people involved in the game haven't learned how to create healthy metagames by designing cards that everyone can play, when will they learn? When will Wizards finally make good on every single pre-release? When will Wizards learn how to communicate what's going on to as many people as possible, instead of putting an article on their site and automatically expecting everyone to find it? At long last, are we just going to admit that we are not valued customers, that we are only taken seriously when we complain and that the rest of the time, the only motivating factor for any action the company takes is to increase profits?
Not that there's anything wrong with profit, mind you. Just that in this case, it eclipses everything else.
Yes, I tried that, but it gave me an error saying I didn't have permission to run the kicker. This was the first time I ran it. I don't know what's wrong, but I've decided to hang it up. I'm tired of the bugs and all the nonsense. Wizards needs to do a better job before I'll spend any amount of time using their product.
Thanks man, I appreciate it. The replay thing was really ticking me off. I had several games where the replay just bugged out after turn 6 or so. I wouldn't have even minded showing a game where I lost if I was able to get a full game in. I figured 2 weeks of trying was enough, and at least showed you guys partial games. I think that first game would have recorded well if it weren't for the fact that the game itself was bugged, and not the replay. I really wish that the second game worked because it was a fun game where Ruhan came in to win in the end. Hopefully I'll have better luck for next week.
Your suggestions were great, and I appreciated them. Puresteel was great when I had metalcraft, but otherwise it was fairly vanilla. As for the deck, I think if you take out a land and add Rhystic Study, or maybe Stroke of Genius, it would help. The curve is so low that shaving a land shouldn't hurt and it will help (however slightly) avoid mana flood. Plus additional draw is never a bad thing.
Ive got a kscope legal tribal deck as well but its pretty weak in comparison to the power of normal tribes. Though if it gets going it can get out of hand.
I'd say this is a really tough one to pull off well, and the tribes that are legal for it are quite limited.
I built a kaleidoscope (60 cards, all gold) tribal deck this week, which I may not get to play anytime soon since it could be 8/18 before there's another "normal" event I will be home for. I think that might be a fun one-off event. There are probably a dozen viable tribes, and maybe a few more legal ones that arent competitive, but that's enough for a one-off event. It's not exactly budget-friendly if you want the optimal manabase and 4-5 colors, but there are always vivid lands and other options, and I don't think it prices anybody out of the event. We likely have plenty of alternative events already as it is, may not need anymore for awhile, but it was fun to build that kind of deck and something maybe to consider for the future, just wanted to throw it out there.
That Ranth (welcome back dude) came in first with cat-humans isn't terribly surprising to me. Aggro decks tend to do better in unknown formats. There is a place for each of the types in this format I think but sadly because of logistical problems it looks like that was the first and last of its kind.
A shame, since I was unable to attend that due to not having legal decks (I had a different expectation than the rule you and Blippy went with.)
Another commander that I have a deck for. Funny how now that you are doing some of the less popular "bad" commanders, you are hitting the commanders I use. My Ruhan deck is very different though. It is basically my asshole deck, and I really don't run it very often. Mine tries to get Ruhan out as fast as possible then blow up all the lands and try to ride to victory with counter back up. Not at all nice.
I have a few other things though that I like with Ruhan. O-naginata is super cheap, pumps big and adds trample. Flickering Ward is a great reusable and cheap form of evasion. Not of this world is awesome with Ruhan, it is totally free and people never expect it. Last I think I prefer Sieze the day to something like waves of aggression. It is is cheaper, and can be used twice, but i guess it really just depends on just "all in" you are on Ruhan.
I am a bit surprised you have never used bauble before. It is a total staple for me in non green decks.
You are right about the Puresteel, he really only has a place in certain decks and tends to be lousy otherwise. I really only run him in mono white equip voltrons, and even then there are times when he is just meh.
Slayers Strong hold is sooooo good. The effect is very strong, and the activation is so cheap. Having to be boros is really its only down side.
You have sold me on Malignus. He sure looks like fun, and I will have to give him a try now.
I am glad to see a couple more of my suggestions work out for you.
Bummer about the replays. It would have been fun too see a few more full games, but still good job.
Now's seems like a good time to be picking up underpriced ISD block rares/mythics that you think might define standard post rotation (e.g. Somberwald Sage, Hellrider,Champion of Lambholt) or just need that little push or metagame shift to make them broken (e.g. Reforge the Soul,Heartless Summoning)
Buy in on these is relatively low, with high potential return.
I do like this project and I appreciate you undertaking it. Some thoughts:
Setting a standard value for the packs doesn't make it conservative or aggressive, it's the EV of every opened pack. A pack could (unlikely) be more than 4 tix also. Packs are generally priced to be a bit worse than the EV of opening it.
If you standardize pack price, then you'd also need to standardize card price. If you do one and not the other, then you could have a "LOOK AT MY RIDICULOUS EV" on a week where the cards you opened happened to be in a sweet spot in the market.
MTGO is a market that has constant fluctuation. No matter what you do, you can't account for all of the fluctuations in the market. What you CAN do is to just be as accurate as possible. I think it's fine to have an article where you say "LOOK AT MY RIDICULOUS EV" -- some weeks are like that and you can write about noticing when it's good value to draft a certain set over another (bc ratio EV of card price to pack price is good). Alternatively, you can have one where you say the market was really bad. You can talk about stockpiling packs during good market times in anticipation of bad ones to help your profit margin. You can talk about when to stockpile your cards during a good run and when to sell them, which point you should attempt to go for the set to redeem, etc.
The beautiful thing is, over time, with enough data, it will even itself out and biases should be somewhat eliminated. That is, of course, you have a built-in bias like standardizing price of one commodity and not another.
I know this takes more work, but it's not THAT much more work and it will lead to a much better product. Besides, if you're using analytic programs to find trends, isn't that best done with the most accurate data possible?
I was an econ/business major in undergrad, and the main problem was that the theory didn't often match reality, mainly because the theorists made too many assumptions. The real experience won't be so cut and dry; a robust, accurate data set also makes for more intricate and interesting analysis that is much more practical.
Again, I think this is a great idea, but these are some suggestions to make it the most worthwhile to both yourself and your readers. Hope this helps.
It sounds like readers are interested in finding out what the EV of a pack is in each set, so I'll do a spreadsheet and make that a feature of the article next week. As for the 4 tix value on boosters, I was getting my M12 packs for 2 tix apiece and AVR for 3.33. However, when making a log of games over multiple months, its not impossible to track the average spent, but it would add quite a bit of record keeping involving every time I made a transaction involving packs.
As stated above, it allows me to be very conservative with my total Profit/Loss, which I tend to value in investment analysis. I also don't want to post an article saying "LOOK AT MY RIDICULOUS EV" on a week where the market was at a sweet spot, which allowed me to obtain better than ordinary results (like this week, where an M12 sealed only costs 8 tix), that's not really the goal. I hope that I can show that it is possible to go infinite (or very near) with pretty much any limited environment by playing solid, tight games.
Another goal for one of the next two articles will be to calculate the required match win % to break even, given the EV of the packs.
I've been a big fan of the 4 pack sealed tourneys ever since they started.
Are you counting packs won as being worth 4 tickets? If so, you should probably change that. As you stated, you could get M12 packs for 2 tickets. You're best off setting all of your values at how much they lower the price of your next tournament. Card values would be based on what you sell them for and pack values would be based on how much you would have paid to buy the pack for another tournament. Doing this would give you a better idea of what it takes to continue playing while spending the least amount of money.
I went infinite on M12 sealed tournaments for about 6 weeks from the end February to mid April. I averaged a little over a tournament a day during that stretch. M12 singles were worth much more at that time than they are now and I was getting packs for between 3 and 3.33 tix each. When that run ended, I never came close to anything quite that long again.
Seeing as I only really played M12, I'm definitely interested to see the differences between the each of the blocks. Good luck with the project. I'm looking forward to your follow up articles.
I appreciate that you went a little bit deeper into the EV calculation. I didn't go quite as deep into it in my first article because I wanted it to at least be an interesting and easy read for the layperson.
As for the assumption of 4 tix, I find that I like to do financial projections (in the real world as well) quite conservatively. Since I expect to use more packs as entry, than receive as prizes, the assumption of a 4 tix price will provide me with a conservative, unchanging baseline while giving myself the freedom to shop for the absolute best price on packs. It would be harder to evaluate my playing performance based on EV if the cost of each tourney was not a constant.
As for step number 4, I hope that I can convey that my goal is to play magic for fun without paying... not to squeeze every drop of value.
Thanks for your kind words, I'm a big fan of your articles as well! Hopefully next week will scratch your new deck itch, and you'll keep following my budget adventures for a while to come :)
Hey everyone, thanks for the feedback! I managed to take my ISD block decks into the tournament practice room and it produced a reasonable amount of success, but I have no illusions that it'll be anywhere near as easy for Standard.
Starting next week I'm intending to have a look at a variety of casual standard decks that can be built for under $5, then choose one and take this forward, adding to my collection and improving the deck with an aim of perhaps sliding in the tournament practice room by the release of Return to Ravnica.
With rotation looming I intend to touch on standard for a couple of weeks, interspersed with other formats, instead of focusing on a futile attempt to break into a format with two years worth of cards and a minuscule foothold. I'd be remiss if I advocated spending too much of a weekly budget on Standard cards that are necessary to compete for the next few months, but become dead cards post-rotation.
I hope I manage to cater to people who do have delusions of competitiveness on a limited budget, as well as those people who feel no need to leave the casual room, although by necessity it will be the latter I will be focusing on until my budget Standard collection is sufficiently deep. :)
Thanks for the feedback! Those sound like great changes, and I'll be using them in my match videos from here on out! Once I start commentating I'll be cutting back on the transcriptions, but I don't think I'll be removing them completely.
Instigator Gang is such fun card, and I've always had a soft spot for Innistrad's Werewolves. In block it's a threat that needs an answer, and an opponent can't just sit back holding their cards unless they can answer a 5/5 that brings additional pain.
I've been exclusively playing 4 pack sealed since Scars of Mirrodin with the goal of 2-1ing every event and playing for a small, positive EV (somewhere between .50 to 1.5 tix per event). I have some advice for people looking to do the same.
1) Never go in blind. I understand that the writer of this article likes to collect data and make pretty graphs, but you cannot be so loose with your money; do the math before you jump in. Go to mtgotraders and look up the sets you are playing with. Calculate the value of the average rare and mythic rares that you can sell (I leave out anything worth less than .50 because those tend not to sell). Adjust for value loss for selling to a bot (I multiply the value of rares by .75 and mythics by .8, but your methods may vary. The point is, if you are selling, you are getting less value than the listed prices of cards.) (7*rareev + mythev)/8 = longterm pack ev. 4x pack ev - price of the pack you have to buy after 2-1ing = average event ev. Remember to actually look up the pack price and not assume it is $4. This process is all about reality and what to expect. Finally, if the event ev is negative or very low (say <.5), you should not play. This tends to happen quit a bit, for example last time I checked five days ago, AVR 4 pack was negative ev, with 4 packs summing to 3.378 and 1 pack costing 3.5. Recheck the ev of the events you are interested in at the very least once a week, twice a week if you are not able to play due to neg ev and are hoping for a change in card/pack values.
2) Keep track of your match win rate, not your winnings. The amount of tix you are up does not dictate the probability that you will succeed in the long run as much are your win rate does. If you are 21-30 in matches but you opened two Bonfires, you are probably going to be down tix after lots more matches. But if you are 30-15 in matches and you have opened poorly, that is not your fault, just bad luck, and it is safe to continue (as long as your bankroll can cover the risk of further poor luck)
3) Know when to quit. If you aren't hitting 66% match win rate, the format isn't doing you any good. The decision point for when to quit is an intersection of statistical significance and monetary reality; you'd like to have a large sample size but you can't afford to lose so much. My personal breaking points are when I fall below these rates+sums:
66 -- 33
57 -- 30
49 -- 26
40 -- 23
32 -- 19
23 -- 16
14 -- 13
5 -- 10
I'm sharing these not because they are "correct" but to give you an example.
A good article. Going infinite on MTGO is a dream every player shares. I look forward to seeing if you can make it! There's been a lot of discussion about your baseline for pack price, but looking at it from a complete layman's view, it makes sense to me. The cost of entering a 4 pack sealed is 16 tickets or 4 boosters (which would be 4 tix per booster). If you win the event, you get 5 packs or 20 tickets value plus whatever you can sell from the card pool. If you finish 2-1, you get 3 packs or 12 tickets value and so on. I think this is a good basis for understanding the concept of going infinite for someone like me, who doesn't have an advanced degree in finance or economics and also doesn't like calculating things down to the .00x value.
Also, I believe you said you switched between M12 and AVR for the first 10 sealed events? Which of the 10 in were AVR and which ones were M12? I'm also interested in seeing how your profit/loss graph changes as M13 4 packed sealed events go online and with it, the learning curve of how a new set will factor into your win/loss percentage.
I didn't say you were myopic I said you seemed myopic. And this isn't an insult but an observation. Because you seem to me to be missing stuff that should be right in front of your nose. Such as the fact that error message YOU described isn't one that gets generated by the client.
It is in fact a Microsoft windows error that indicates there is something wrong with your framework files, your permissions or your windows installation. None of those are the fault of wizards.
Also Blaming them for that is like blaming random strangers for the bad breakfast you had.
And yes there is a point in you calling WOTC cs to get help with the problem. You love the game despite your frustrations and why throw out the baby with the bathwater?
I agree things would be better if everyone was respectful and kind but then again people differ in their ideas of respect and even what is kind.
And again expecting the world of strangers at large to be fair and kind and respectful seems myopic. Because you've been around the block enough to know the world at large isn't like that. And also this is again not the fault of Wizards or even their responsibility.
They can't possibly monitor every single deck list (there are millions of permutations) and determine which ones are off limits and if they could, that would be a huge drain on their resources. If you want people to do stuff for you, you have to at least make reasonable demands.
Peace Out.
Not sure if you understand my point. There is no virus. When I ran the kicker, it didn't work. Simple as that. I suppose I could try to call support to rectify it, but would there be any point in doing so? When I'm called irrational and myopic simply for stating my opinions? Why should I show up just to be insulted whenever I have a thought that runs contrary to what anybody else thinks. The fault isn't mine- and this feels like blaming the victim when you say that I need to find a way to have fun with it. Why tell me to develop elephant skin? Wouldn't it be better if everyone else learned to treat other people with respect? At the very least, people could leave their competitive decks out of the casual room. It's not my fault for getting frustrated over that- it's their fault for being bullies when other people just want to sit back and enjoy a match with random cards they threw together. While it's not Wizards fault that such behavior arises, I do wish they would do more- perhaps a database of netdecks that tells you if you have a tier 1, 2 or 3 deck when you put it together. Then if you try to make or join a match in the casual room with a tier 1 deck, it won't let you. This is the sort of thing they could do to ensure parity in the various rooms.
Use the kaleidoscope deck to unlock the achievement!
You can be logged on to an admin level account and still not be running a program as an administrator.
Right clicking and selecting "Run as an Administrator" is how windows lets you override its permissions system.
Again as I said. This sounds like a windows problem. You are getting messages (FROM WINDOWS) about permissions that have garbled characters in them? That sounds like a virus or two. Or perhaps your .net files are corrupt/missing. In any case this is solvable if you look for help from the appropriate angle.
As for the cards you hate:
Well MTG is a game in progress. There is no end boss. It will never have one. This means it will always been an imperfect game for some of us. Which ones may vary at any given time. If your expectation is based on the game being polished and complete then you are going to be disappointed time and again.
In my opinion Wotc does fair job of weeding out the worst offenders but they are humans and stuff does get by (I personally thought the big 3 of ROE were not just mistakes but horrible for the casual fun only players out there.) That makes the game outrageous at times for some players but it also makes it interesting for others.
As for the rest, well your rant seems a little myopic. (Not to mention lacking in paragraphs but that just made it harder to read.)
Not to say all of your complaints are invalid either (communication definitely is something they need to work on) but lumping them all together and virtually waving your hands in the air because of all that seems like you are missing the big picture.
Particularly when you blame wizards for the david v Goliath syndrome that happens with ANY strategy based game. There will always be people who will beat you down and disregard your pleasure/pain in the process. Or maybe even seek to provoke the negative response so they can feed THEIR fragile egos. This has nothing to do with the game and everything to do with humanity. Learn to avoid the people who do this or develop elephant skin.
I KNOW you enjoy the game. You've spent the time and energy to write articles about it. Heck you spent time and energy to write these impassioned if not precisely rational sounding posts. But it sounds like you have become so frustrated by your woes that you have lost track of what matters. Finding a way to have fun with the game.
Being unable to log in maybe causing this but that isn't imho the fault of wizards. Though I expect if you called them they would do their best to give you technical support. (One thing few have complained about is their customer support.)
Did you give any feedback to WOTC on the forums or by email or even to an ORC or anyone else aside from here?
==Edit==
Also how on earth could you have been playing this as long as you have and not even know about the kicker much less not have run it? I am really disturbed by that. Was someone else taking care of it for you?
For card draw, there's a 1/1 rare from 9th edition or so called Archivist. It doesn't look like anything special, but a card each turn really adds up after a while.
I'm the only person on my computer and I've already set myself as an administrator. Usually, I get a box asking me if I want to let the program do its thing and I click on yes. Not so with the kicker- it wouldn't even let me get that far. Moreover, the text I saw was all jumbled: the result of bad programming.
Why do magic players put up with this? Why do they spend money on a faulty program to interact with other players who, let's face it, are really not that pleasant? Why do we sit through tournaments for three hours hoping to make a small gain when we could just easily take a job moonlighting somewhere and make a much larger profit? Why do magic players care more about the values of their cards than the experiences they give other players by using abusive, broken decks? Why does selfishness factor into everything around the game? Why do magic players always look at the next new thing, so excited about sets that haven't even come out yet when here there are plenty of cards yet to be tried? Are new cards more enjoyable than old cards simply because they're new? Why does Wizards design broken cards and then later say, "whoops, sorry?" Why is that even acceptable? Shouldn't we expect more when the card game has been around for as long as it has? If they people involved in the game haven't learned how to create healthy metagames by designing cards that everyone can play, when will they learn? When will Wizards finally make good on every single pre-release? When will Wizards learn how to communicate what's going on to as many people as possible, instead of putting an article on their site and automatically expecting everyone to find it? At long last, are we just going to admit that we are not valued customers, that we are only taken seriously when we complain and that the rest of the time, the only motivating factor for any action the company takes is to increase profits?
Not that there's anything wrong with profit, mind you. Just that in this case, it eclipses everything else.
Permissions are strictly a Windows thing. Try right clicking on kicker.exe and Running as Administrator.
Thanks for taking the time to make this. It was awesome from your part to share it.
Yes, I tried that, but it gave me an error saying I didn't have permission to run the kicker. This was the first time I ran it. I don't know what's wrong, but I've decided to hang it up. I'm tired of the bugs and all the nonsense. Wizards needs to do a better job before I'll spend any amount of time using their product.
Thanks man, I appreciate it. The replay thing was really ticking me off. I had several games where the replay just bugged out after turn 6 or so. I wouldn't have even minded showing a game where I lost if I was able to get a full game in. I figured 2 weeks of trying was enough, and at least showed you guys partial games. I think that first game would have recorded well if it weren't for the fact that the game itself was bugged, and not the replay. I really wish that the second game worked because it was a fun game where Ruhan came in to win in the end. Hopefully I'll have better luck for next week.
Your suggestions were great, and I appreciated them. Puresteel was great when I had metalcraft, but otherwise it was fairly vanilla. As for the deck, I think if you take out a land and add Rhystic Study, or maybe Stroke of Genius, it would help. The curve is so low that shaving a land shouldn't hurt and it will help (however slightly) avoid mana flood. Plus additional draw is never a bad thing.
Ive got a kscope legal tribal deck as well but its pretty weak in comparison to the power of normal tribes. Though if it gets going it can get out of hand.
I'd say this is a really tough one to pull off well, and the tribes that are legal for it are quite limited.
I built a kaleidoscope (60 cards, all gold) tribal deck this week, which I may not get to play anytime soon since it could be 8/18 before there's another "normal" event I will be home for. I think that might be a fun one-off event. There are probably a dozen viable tribes, and maybe a few more legal ones that arent competitive, but that's enough for a one-off event. It's not exactly budget-friendly if you want the optimal manabase and 4-5 colors, but there are always vivid lands and other options, and I don't think it prices anybody out of the event. We likely have plenty of alternative events already as it is, may not need anymore for awhile, but it was fun to build that kind of deck and something maybe to consider for the future, just wanted to throw it out there.
That Ranth (welcome back dude) came in first with cat-humans isn't terribly surprising to me. Aggro decks tend to do better in unknown formats. There is a place for each of the types in this format I think but sadly because of logistical problems it looks like that was the first and last of its kind.
A shame, since I was unable to attend that due to not having legal decks (I had a different expectation than the rule you and Blippy went with.)
Another commander that I have a deck for. Funny how now that you are doing some of the less popular "bad" commanders, you are hitting the commanders I use. My Ruhan deck is very different though. It is basically my asshole deck, and I really don't run it very often. Mine tries to get Ruhan out as fast as possible then blow up all the lands and try to ride to victory with counter back up. Not at all nice.
I have a few other things though that I like with Ruhan. O-naginata is super cheap, pumps big and adds trample. Flickering Ward is a great reusable and cheap form of evasion. Not of this world is awesome with Ruhan, it is totally free and people never expect it. Last I think I prefer Sieze the day to something like waves of aggression. It is is cheaper, and can be used twice, but i guess it really just depends on just "all in" you are on Ruhan.
I am a bit surprised you have never used bauble before. It is a total staple for me in non green decks.
You are right about the Puresteel, he really only has a place in certain decks and tends to be lousy otherwise. I really only run him in mono white equip voltrons, and even then there are times when he is just meh.
Slayers Strong hold is sooooo good. The effect is very strong, and the activation is so cheap. Having to be boros is really its only down side.
You have sold me on Malignus. He sure looks like fun, and I will have to give him a try now.
I am glad to see a couple more of my suggestions work out for you.
Bummer about the replays. It would have been fun too see a few more full games, but still good job.
Now's seems like a good time to be picking up underpriced ISD block rares/mythics that you think might define standard post rotation (e.g. Somberwald Sage, Hellrider,Champion of Lambholt) or just need that little push or metagame shift to make them broken (e.g. Reforge the Soul,Heartless Summoning)
Buy in on these is relatively low, with high potential return.
I do like this project and I appreciate you undertaking it. Some thoughts:
Setting a standard value for the packs doesn't make it conservative or aggressive, it's the EV of every opened pack. A pack could (unlikely) be more than 4 tix also. Packs are generally priced to be a bit worse than the EV of opening it.
If you standardize pack price, then you'd also need to standardize card price. If you do one and not the other, then you could have a "LOOK AT MY RIDICULOUS EV" on a week where the cards you opened happened to be in a sweet spot in the market.
MTGO is a market that has constant fluctuation. No matter what you do, you can't account for all of the fluctuations in the market. What you CAN do is to just be as accurate as possible. I think it's fine to have an article where you say "LOOK AT MY RIDICULOUS EV" -- some weeks are like that and you can write about noticing when it's good value to draft a certain set over another (bc ratio EV of card price to pack price is good). Alternatively, you can have one where you say the market was really bad. You can talk about stockpiling packs during good market times in anticipation of bad ones to help your profit margin. You can talk about when to stockpile your cards during a good run and when to sell them, which point you should attempt to go for the set to redeem, etc.
The beautiful thing is, over time, with enough data, it will even itself out and biases should be somewhat eliminated. That is, of course, you have a built-in bias like standardizing price of one commodity and not another.
I know this takes more work, but it's not THAT much more work and it will lead to a much better product. Besides, if you're using analytic programs to find trends, isn't that best done with the most accurate data possible?
I was an econ/business major in undergrad, and the main problem was that the theory didn't often match reality, mainly because the theorists made too many assumptions. The real experience won't be so cut and dry; a robust, accurate data set also makes for more intricate and interesting analysis that is much more practical.
Again, I think this is a great idea, but these are some suggestions to make it the most worthwhile to both yourself and your readers. Hope this helps.
It sounds like readers are interested in finding out what the EV of a pack is in each set, so I'll do a spreadsheet and make that a feature of the article next week. As for the 4 tix value on boosters, I was getting my M12 packs for 2 tix apiece and AVR for 3.33. However, when making a log of games over multiple months, its not impossible to track the average spent, but it would add quite a bit of record keeping involving every time I made a transaction involving packs.
As stated above, it allows me to be very conservative with my total Profit/Loss, which I tend to value in investment analysis. I also don't want to post an article saying "LOOK AT MY RIDICULOUS EV" on a week where the market was at a sweet spot, which allowed me to obtain better than ordinary results (like this week, where an M12 sealed only costs 8 tix), that's not really the goal. I hope that I can show that it is possible to go infinite (or very near) with pretty much any limited environment by playing solid, tight games.
Another goal for one of the next two articles will be to calculate the required match win % to break even, given the EV of the packs.
If I forgot to say it in the last article, welcome back Adam! :)
I've been a big fan of the 4 pack sealed tourneys ever since they started.
Are you counting packs won as being worth 4 tickets? If so, you should probably change that. As you stated, you could get M12 packs for 2 tickets. You're best off setting all of your values at how much they lower the price of your next tournament. Card values would be based on what you sell them for and pack values would be based on how much you would have paid to buy the pack for another tournament. Doing this would give you a better idea of what it takes to continue playing while spending the least amount of money.
I went infinite on M12 sealed tournaments for about 6 weeks from the end February to mid April. I averaged a little over a tournament a day during that stretch. M12 singles were worth much more at that time than they are now and I was getting packs for between 3 and 3.33 tix each. When that run ended, I never came close to anything quite that long again.
Seeing as I only really played M12, I'm definitely interested to see the differences between the each of the blocks. Good luck with the project. I'm looking forward to your follow up articles.
I appreciate that you went a little bit deeper into the EV calculation. I didn't go quite as deep into it in my first article because I wanted it to at least be an interesting and easy read for the layperson.
As for the assumption of 4 tix, I find that I like to do financial projections (in the real world as well) quite conservatively. Since I expect to use more packs as entry, than receive as prizes, the assumption of a 4 tix price will provide me with a conservative, unchanging baseline while giving myself the freedom to shop for the absolute best price on packs. It would be harder to evaluate my playing performance based on EV if the cost of each tourney was not a constant.
As for step number 4, I hope that I can convey that my goal is to play magic for fun without paying... not to squeeze every drop of value.
Thanks for your kind words, I'm a big fan of your articles as well! Hopefully next week will scratch your new deck itch, and you'll keep following my budget adventures for a while to come :)
Hey everyone, thanks for the feedback! I managed to take my ISD block decks into the tournament practice room and it produced a reasonable amount of success, but I have no illusions that it'll be anywhere near as easy for Standard.
Starting next week I'm intending to have a look at a variety of casual standard decks that can be built for under $5, then choose one and take this forward, adding to my collection and improving the deck with an aim of perhaps sliding in the tournament practice room by the release of Return to Ravnica.
With rotation looming I intend to touch on standard for a couple of weeks, interspersed with other formats, instead of focusing on a futile attempt to break into a format with two years worth of cards and a minuscule foothold. I'd be remiss if I advocated spending too much of a weekly budget on Standard cards that are necessary to compete for the next few months, but become dead cards post-rotation.
I hope I manage to cater to people who do have delusions of competitiveness on a limited budget, as well as those people who feel no need to leave the casual room, although by necessity it will be the latter I will be focusing on until my budget Standard collection is sufficiently deep. :)
Thanks for the feedback! Those sound like great changes, and I'll be using them in my match videos from here on out! Once I start commentating I'll be cutting back on the transcriptions, but I don't think I'll be removing them completely.
Instigator Gang is such fun card, and I've always had a soft spot for Innistrad's Werewolves. In block it's a threat that needs an answer, and an opponent can't just sit back holding their cards unless they can answer a 5/5 that brings additional pain.
I've been exclusively playing 4 pack sealed since Scars of Mirrodin with the goal of 2-1ing every event and playing for a small, positive EV (somewhere between .50 to 1.5 tix per event). I have some advice for people looking to do the same.
1) Never go in blind. I understand that the writer of this article likes to collect data and make pretty graphs, but you cannot be so loose with your money; do the math before you jump in. Go to mtgotraders and look up the sets you are playing with. Calculate the value of the average rare and mythic rares that you can sell (I leave out anything worth less than .50 because those tend not to sell). Adjust for value loss for selling to a bot (I multiply the value of rares by .75 and mythics by .8, but your methods may vary. The point is, if you are selling, you are getting less value than the listed prices of cards.) (7*rareev + mythev)/8 = longterm pack ev. 4x pack ev - price of the pack you have to buy after 2-1ing = average event ev. Remember to actually look up the pack price and not assume it is $4. This process is all about reality and what to expect. Finally, if the event ev is negative or very low (say <.5), you should not play. This tends to happen quit a bit, for example last time I checked five days ago, AVR 4 pack was negative ev, with 4 packs summing to 3.378 and 1 pack costing 3.5. Recheck the ev of the events you are interested in at the very least once a week, twice a week if you are not able to play due to neg ev and are hoping for a change in card/pack values.
2) Keep track of your match win rate, not your winnings. The amount of tix you are up does not dictate the probability that you will succeed in the long run as much are your win rate does. If you are 21-30 in matches but you opened two Bonfires, you are probably going to be down tix after lots more matches. But if you are 30-15 in matches and you have opened poorly, that is not your fault, just bad luck, and it is safe to continue (as long as your bankroll can cover the risk of further poor luck)
3) Know when to quit. If you aren't hitting 66% match win rate, the format isn't doing you any good. The decision point for when to quit is an intersection of statistical significance and monetary reality; you'd like to have a large sample size but you can't afford to lose so much. My personal breaking points are when I fall below these rates+sums:
66 -- 33
57 -- 30
49 -- 26
40 -- 23
32 -- 19
23 -- 16
14 -- 13
5 -- 10
I'm sharing these not because they are "correct" but to give you an example.
4. Have fun! Just kidding, this part is optional.