I'm hoping that I can play in a pauper player run event soon. Part of the reason I got into pauper was to increase my chances of having a deck to play when a tournament occurs.
I forget what days the pauper events are, but I'll check it out today.
Thanks for reading, and the support from the pauper community has been great.
It's back, well at least preregistration. Need players XD. I got released from hospital and had no internet till this week. Now I'm up and running its time to restart.
One thing I've come to learn, and Ryan said this a long time ago, one of the best things you can do is abandon this notion of "going infinite" and just elicit some value out of having fun. Swiss drafts are great for this. You get to play three rounds no matter what! For this reason I rarely draft anything other than Swiss. Even then, if you can win a match or two most of the time, you are really reducing the cost of your drafts.
Also think that a lot of people that think they are infinite and really slow bleeding, but hard for me to know for sure.
I just don't think that is correct. I think a lot of people try, and give up after they repeatedly get smashed in DEs. Everyone is trying to do this so you're going to this, and not everyone can. The math just doesn't add up.
I passed it down to Gordani last year. I now see there hasn't been a new event since December. We used to have a hard time finding enough players, anyway. Despite the big prizes. I'll look into it.
I dont think the exact math is as difficult as you make it seem. It is essentially just another formula you plug into ie hypergeometric distribution. And I am sure that Woof could have used that instead of the approximation.
While I find it straight forward to analyze when to do the mulligan using math, I still find it very informative to read about the decision making conditional on the computed probabilities.
An idea for a future article could be an analysis of how to construct and use the sideboard in the framework of this article series.
Nice article. I liked it. I have a 1850 limited rating and I am infinite and playing M15 drafts at the moment. I usually play swiss (or 4322) where the competition is not as high as in 8-4.
I'm not saying is article is bad. I'm just pointing this out.
And just to be clear, when I that most people could go infinite in constructed they could, I'm not saying most people actually go infinite. It's more like if they tried to, if they wanted to spend the time doing so, if they informed themselves, most could do it. In limited it's not that simply.
Being someone who remembers these fondly, I really am (hesitantly) looking forward to the return of Leagues. I am sure it won't be exactly what we want, but one can hope.
Just for the balancing uprating. Try harder. Do more research on how to write this kind of article (Read anything by Godot (Ryan Spain) or Oraymw (Mathew Watkins) for an idea of how to go about it.) But most important of all, take the criticism here with a pound of salt. It isn't that your work is bad all the way but that it needs improvement. So go improve and ignore the hate in favor of the constructive criticisms.
And listen again to LR. Those guys have a good thing going and you could learn a lot from them if not about how to draft, how to address your audience positively and without seeming arrogant or misinformation.
I don't think you're wrong in saying that going infinite in Limited is possible, but I do think you're greatly overestimating how easy it is. You need a sizable bankroll to get started since 3 boosters and 2 tickets is not enough. Everybody gets hot and cold streaks, and if you start out your 1st draft with a loss, then you need to make more purchases. As they say: You have to spend money to make money.
You also have to be good. REALLY good. You have to know more than just basic concepts as BREAD and how to read a board state. You have to be able to apply those concepts in different formats and be willing to change your understanding of how Limited works at times (example: Voltron strategies being viable in Theros when they were traditionally unplayable in other formats). You have to draft a lot and know what strategies are viable and what you can draft as the metagame evolves.
All of that isn't easy, at least not right away. It takes practice, dedication and a willingness to play more Limited than most people.
Maybe you're at that stage where you're just generally good at Limited and you can pick up a draft format within a few drafts. Good for you! Seriously, good for you! But not everybody is at that place, so when they read statements like:
"If you just keep limited fundamentals in mind, you should have no problem succeeding at limited. Knowing how to read board states and knowing how creature combat works is pretty important. Learn how to read signals and try to stay in colors that will give you the best chances at winning. If you do all of this, I can see anyone racking in the tickets, QPs and bulk in no time."
it'll sound weird to them because they're probably thinking "aren't I already doing that?"
You said you wanted to know the best drafting strategies and how to better evaluate cards when you listened to LR. If that's what you wanted, and your reasoning to writing this article was to remedy what you didn't find, why didn't you do that here?
Wouldn't a better topic be: "How to go infinite in FRF/KTK Limited"?
I think you are mistaken here. "Most" is a lot of people. Some could go infinite in Constructed play. Many have. But MANY have not. And that reason is because they can't. Because they don't know how. That isn't most.
I think giving this guy the benefit of the doubt on his first article is really important because while his information might not be 100% he put work and passion into it. We need good writers who want to write in the game. I've seen articles far less worthy of a 1 fireball than this. Why not just lay off eh? Enough already.
I think there are a lot of problems with this article. Sure, you can go infinite with limited, if you're one of the top 1% of limited players on Magic Online. If you were that, you'd be playing at the Pro Tour and Top 8ing GPs. At minimum you'd be playing in the MOCS Championship.
You also make it sound like anyone can just grab a Constructed deck and start making a profit. That simply isn't true, because everyone is trying to do that. If Constructed Dailys only pay out to 3-1s, then the rest (majority) of the Event that have at least two losses are not making tickets, they are losing them. It is a LOT harder than it looks. I've always felt that the difficulty level of DEs is roughly GP Day 1. Pulling off even a 55% win rate, which I believe is break-even territory, is going to be quite hard.
I've listened to the go infinite episode of Limited Resources a number of times and it is quite good. For you to so easily dismiss it is problematic.
I applaud you for taking the time and effort to write up an article. I appreciate your perspective, but some things to think about perhaps...
LOL @ sideboarding in Chess. Speak of which I beg to differ on your contention about King's Gambit, Pete. Unless you are a GM strength player playing at that level against other 2500+ players, King's Gambit is a perfectly fine and good opening. Assuming you play the right line. The correct line gives White serious attacking chances. The incorrect lines (of which there are many and which is the reason it is a maligned variation) lead Black into an aggressive but not necessarily won game.
Loved having Pete's interaction with AJ. Nice guest spot! :)
Big fan of the podcast, but wondering if the postcast (and Yawgmoth SO) is on iTunes or Stitcher Radio, or even just an RSS feed? Makes it so much more convenient to listen to (and make you reach more people).
When I say it's difficult it's because not everyone can do it. In constructed I'm not gonna say everyone can go infinite if they try but most people could. In drafts, depending on the average value of an opened pack, a 60% winning percentage is usually not enough to go infinite. If less than 40% of the people can do it, it's obviously not easy. The format is also relevant. If you master a format or know someone other people don't you have a big advantage but there are also some formats where variance is bigger and those you can't really do much. But I guess part of the skill is choosing the correct format.
In my opinion, your biggest mistake is saying it's easy, because it is not. Even if you are really good at it, you have to consider that this is something less than 50% of the players can do.
This guy wrote the article from the standpoint of, "This is what worked for me. Maybe it'll work for you."
If you disagree with him, that's fine. That still doesn't take away from anything he's accomplished.
He says statistics don't show the whole picture. I agree. I go with the line that was attributed to Mark Twain: "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."
There are pure stats to refute your claim, so you just say statistics don't show the whole picture. No point in arguing with someone like that, so I will just say I disagree.
I can attest to the power of Mardu in this format. Your thought that Sultai may be the way to go got my attention. I only played a few drafts but I have enjoyed this format much more than usual and may continue drafting for a while. I have found that speed does in fact kill. I'm glad to see that my initial read on Abzan being a tougher route to have success with looks to be correct. I play Abzan in constructed and in my first few drafts let my predisposition to it get the better of me.
I'm hoping that I can play in a pauper player run event soon. Part of the reason I got into pauper was to increase my chances of having a deck to play when a tournament occurs.
I forget what days the pauper events are, but I'll check it out today.
Thanks for reading, and the support from the pauper community has been great.
It's back, well at least preregistration. Need players XD. I got released from hospital and had no internet till this week. Now I'm up and running its time to restart.
One thing I've come to learn, and Ryan said this a long time ago, one of the best things you can do is abandon this notion of "going infinite" and just elicit some value out of having fun. Swiss drafts are great for this. You get to play three rounds no matter what! For this reason I rarely draft anything other than Swiss. Even then, if you can win a match or two most of the time, you are really reducing the cost of your drafts.
Also think that a lot of people that think they are infinite and really slow bleeding, but hard for me to know for sure.
I just don't think that is correct. I think a lot of people try, and give up after they repeatedly get smashed in DEs. Everyone is trying to do this so you're going to this, and not everyone can. The math just doesn't add up.
I passed it down to Gordani last year. I now see there hasn't been a new event since December. We used to have a hard time finding enough players, anyway. Despite the big prizes. I'll look into it.
I dont think the exact math is as difficult as you make it seem. It is essentially just another formula you plug into ie hypergeometric distribution. And I am sure that Woof could have used that instead of the approximation.
While I find it straight forward to analyze when to do the mulligan using math, I still find it very informative to read about the decision making conditional on the computed probabilities.
An idea for a future article could be an analysis of how to construct and use the sideboard in the framework of this article series.
Nice article. I liked it. I have a 1850 limited rating and I am infinite and playing M15 drafts at the moment. I usually play swiss (or 4322) where the competition is not as high as in 8-4.
Looking forward to the next article.
I'm not saying is article is bad. I'm just pointing this out.
And just to be clear, when I that most people could go infinite in constructed they could, I'm not saying most people actually go infinite. It's more like if they tried to, if they wanted to spend the time doing so, if they informed themselves, most could do it. In limited it's not that simply.
It was on iTunes until mid-2013, when we cut ties with MTGCast.
"Wizards, any news on Leagues?"
This ... SO hard.
Being someone who remembers these fondly, I really am (hesitantly) looking forward to the return of Leagues. I am sure it won't be exactly what we want, but one can hope.
Just for the balancing uprating. Try harder. Do more research on how to write this kind of article (Read anything by Godot (Ryan Spain) or Oraymw (Mathew Watkins) for an idea of how to go about it.) But most important of all, take the criticism here with a pound of salt. It isn't that your work is bad all the way but that it needs improvement. So go improve and ignore the hate in favor of the constructive criticisms.
And listen again to LR. Those guys have a good thing going and you could learn a lot from them if not about how to draft, how to address your audience positively and without seeming arrogant or misinformation.
I don't think you're wrong in saying that going infinite in Limited is possible, but I do think you're greatly overestimating how easy it is. You need a sizable bankroll to get started since 3 boosters and 2 tickets is not enough. Everybody gets hot and cold streaks, and if you start out your 1st draft with a loss, then you need to make more purchases. As they say: You have to spend money to make money.
You also have to be good. REALLY good. You have to know more than just basic concepts as BREAD and how to read a board state. You have to be able to apply those concepts in different formats and be willing to change your understanding of how Limited works at times (example: Voltron strategies being viable in Theros when they were traditionally unplayable in other formats). You have to draft a lot and know what strategies are viable and what you can draft as the metagame evolves.
All of that isn't easy, at least not right away. It takes practice, dedication and a willingness to play more Limited than most people.
Maybe you're at that stage where you're just generally good at Limited and you can pick up a draft format within a few drafts. Good for you! Seriously, good for you! But not everybody is at that place, so when they read statements like:
"If you just keep limited fundamentals in mind, you should have no problem succeeding at limited. Knowing how to read board states and knowing how creature combat works is pretty important. Learn how to read signals and try to stay in colors that will give you the best chances at winning. If you do all of this, I can see anyone racking in the tickets, QPs and bulk in no time."
it'll sound weird to them because they're probably thinking "aren't I already doing that?"
You said you wanted to know the best drafting strategies and how to better evaluate cards when you listened to LR. If that's what you wanted, and your reasoning to writing this article was to remedy what you didn't find, why didn't you do that here?
Wouldn't a better topic be: "How to go infinite in FRF/KTK Limited"?
I think you are mistaken here. "Most" is a lot of people. Some could go infinite in Constructed play. Many have. But MANY have not. And that reason is because they can't. Because they don't know how. That isn't most.
I think giving this guy the benefit of the doubt on his first article is really important because while his information might not be 100% he put work and passion into it. We need good writers who want to write in the game. I've seen articles far less worthy of a 1 fireball than this. Why not just lay off eh? Enough already.
I think there are a lot of problems with this article. Sure, you can go infinite with limited, if you're one of the top 1% of limited players on Magic Online. If you were that, you'd be playing at the Pro Tour and Top 8ing GPs. At minimum you'd be playing in the MOCS Championship.
You also make it sound like anyone can just grab a Constructed deck and start making a profit. That simply isn't true, because everyone is trying to do that. If Constructed Dailys only pay out to 3-1s, then the rest (majority) of the Event that have at least two losses are not making tickets, they are losing them. It is a LOT harder than it looks. I've always felt that the difficulty level of DEs is roughly GP Day 1. Pulling off even a 55% win rate, which I believe is break-even territory, is going to be quite hard.
I've listened to the go infinite episode of Limited Resources a number of times and it is quite good. For you to so easily dismiss it is problematic.
I applaud you for taking the time and effort to write up an article. I appreciate your perspective, but some things to think about perhaps...
LOL @ sideboarding in Chess. Speak of which I beg to differ on your contention about King's Gambit, Pete. Unless you are a GM strength player playing at that level against other 2500+ players, King's Gambit is a perfectly fine and good opening. Assuming you play the right line. The correct line gives White serious attacking chances. The incorrect lines (of which there are many and which is the reason it is a maligned variation) lead Black into an aggressive but not necessarily won game.
Loved having Pete's interaction with AJ. Nice guest spot! :)
RE: Aurelia+Kiki, no go. Kiki says non-legendary.
Hi guys,
Big fan of the podcast, but wondering if the postcast (and Yawgmoth SO) is on iTunes or Stitcher Radio, or even just an RSS feed? Makes it so much more convenient to listen to (and make you reach more people).
Thanks
Sorry to hear the love life didn't work out. Interesting to see Chapin's deck take 1st in Overdrive!
Rishadan Port is already in the MTGO system for months with new art together with Griselbrand, Thalia, Hero's Downfall, etc.
I guess, we might see some of these cards with alternative art as MOCS promos within this year.
As of right now Rashadan Port is $30 more than Black Lotus.
When I say it's difficult it's because not everyone can do it. In constructed I'm not gonna say everyone can go infinite if they try but most people could. In drafts, depending on the average value of an opened pack, a 60% winning percentage is usually not enough to go infinite. If less than 40% of the people can do it, it's obviously not easy. The format is also relevant. If you master a format or know someone other people don't you have a big advantage but there are also some formats where variance is bigger and those you can't really do much. But I guess part of the skill is choosing the correct format.
In my opinion, your biggest mistake is saying it's easy, because it is not. Even if you are really good at it, you have to consider that this is something less than 50% of the players can do.
Good article. As little magic as possible, please.
This guy wrote the article from the standpoint of, "This is what worked for me. Maybe it'll work for you."
If you disagree with him, that's fine. That still doesn't take away from anything he's accomplished.
He says statistics don't show the whole picture. I agree. I go with the line that was attributed to Mark Twain: "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."
A series of three feature length comedy dramas written for British television by Paul Minett and Brian Leveson. - Review Solution
There are pure stats to refute your claim, so you just say statistics don't show the whole picture. No point in arguing with someone like that, so I will just say I disagree.
I can attest to the power of Mardu in this format. Your thought that Sultai may be the way to go got my attention. I only played a few drafts but I have enjoyed this format much more than usual and may continue drafting for a while. I have found that speed does in fact kill. I'm glad to see that my initial read on Abzan being a tougher route to have success with looks to be correct. I play Abzan in constructed and in my first few drafts let my predisposition to it get the better of me.
Great stuff as always.