Since publication, KTK has fallen down to 2.2.... we are now in the utterly ridiculous territory of needing 90% winrate to break even on 2-player queues.
I took the announcement of a challenge, and made my own full version of TRM, and am even trying to get some drafts of it to see how the limited environment works. (I did/am doing a similar thing with MMA2, even before it was officially confirmed). I'd post my full list, but I don't think the comment form accepts links, so instead, some quick hits:
1. Things I cut: All the color hate, Licids, anything having to do with graveyard order, all non-Sliver gold cards
2. Shadow on creatures, en-Kors, and almost all Spikes are now only at uncommon or higher (in an attempt to at least try to adhere to NWO principles)
3. Mythics:
White:
Orim, Samite Healer
Cataclysm
Blue:
Ertai, Wizard Adept
Time Warp
Black:
Commander Greven il-Vec
Recurring Nightmare
Red:
Starke of Rath
Eladamri, Lord of Leaves
Survival of the Fittest
Gold:
Sliver Queen
Artifact:
Mox Diamond
Ensnaring Bridge
Sphere of Resistance
Land:
Wasteland (If you think Wizards is nice, swap this with City of Traitors)
Volrath's Stronghold
I haven't gotten into any format-crafting yet (other than hopefully making Slivers playable by printing all of them and having all 10 duals at uncommon), mainly since there isn't much to work with. For instance, I have half the commons you mentioned as cuttable in the set, since you need creatures that aren't horrible and spells that did something (Gaseous Form works well in the set with limited removal, Frog Tongue's a decent cantrip, Manta Riders is a curve filler for an blue fliers deck, and Blood Pet is good for the black aggro deck based around Scare Tactics). I want to write more about this process (for both this, and my MMA2 set), but I just don't have an outlet :/
I agree that if Wizards thinks that there are too few Wastelands circulating they have no second thoughts about flooding the market and crashing the price like they did it for FoW.
I do not agree that no one collects on MTGO. As long as there is a price difference between various versions of the same non-redeemable card then some people value a collectable aspect over and above card functionality. In other words when someone pays more for a foil Wasteland than for a regular Wasteland then I would call them collectors (even when they actively use the foil Wastelands in a deck). It is certainly not speculation. But the slight difference in interpretation of a 'collector' does not really invalidate your point.
Nicely done, as always! I managed to scrape together four wastelands already, so TMR isn't something I'm into. I don't plan on trying to sell my wastelands now either. I like having them.
This would be the first chance to get the old art in new frames, but that's probably not the reason.
I suspect that one reason is that it reduces the number of cards in the draft. By including the lands, we don't get 24 more commons per draft. Having more commons in the draft just makes it more repetitive.
Modern Masters had just 10 commons per pack, by including a foil as the 15th card. Admittedly, a foil would be better, but I'll settle for a land.
VMA card dropped a lot because VMA was sold far past the point at which they wanted it to end. TRM will be around for three weeks, not six months.
Wizards also needs the staples for a format - the lands and the cards that are played in many different decks, to be affordable. Wasteland, Force of Will and the duals are all cards Wizards needs to keep cheap. Also, no one collects on MTGO. Speculates, yes, but collects - no. Have you looked and the "collection screen?"
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I would be shocked if Wasteland is uncommon. Even at rare, the value is likely to drop by two-thirds. VMA duals and Force of Will dropped by a similar percentage (at rare) and those packs were $7 not $4. WotC has to at least give a token nod to the collectors. Sure a ME FoW is worth more than a VMA FoW but the underlying value still cratered.
Interesting article, I think we also have to look at this from WOTC's perspective. The problem to them would be if the current pay-outs result in a lose of players revenue that is GREATER than the lose in revenue in any of the solutions. I wonder if we have any stats that show constructed events fire LESS often when the packs they pay are worth less. WOTC for sure has this so at least they can see if indeed the problem exists at all in mass. But then the question becomes are any of the options you laid out revenue favorable or at least neutral to WOTC.
I was intrigued when you mention "Players can "break even" on this prize structure with a win rate of around 45%." I think this is key, the question becomes what is the right % to attract players yet maintain a strong profit margin. We are assuming it should be 45%, and I like that as well (only have to win half the time is nice) but maybe we are working under the wrong assumption that WOTC wants it to be 45%.
Great article, perfectly sums up a huge problem for us, Constructed grinders. Funnily enough, just as you wrote this article, pack prices raised up to 4+ for FRF and 2,5 for KTK :).
Out of the solutions you proposed, the 4th one seems the best and TugaChampion's solution (reducing the number of actual packs given) sounds reasonable.
Yeah, I haven't had the chance to personally try out the Leyline plan (also a matter of card availability) but I can see what you mean. I suppose there's a slim chance of being able to hardcast a Leyline off a couple of eggs, but its likely both too difficult and too late in the game to actually be feasible, and still has all the problems you mentioned regarding mulligans.
I hadn't considered Thragtusk before looking at lists for this article, but its definitely something I want to try next time I build a sideboard for an event.
Yeah, that's on me. I think I originally didn't have it in the list because I'd seen someone playing it at a recent modern event, but my brain misfired while I was editing. Also, thanks for your kind words!
I probably could have made that clearer that the suggestions were not for all archetypes i.e Surgical Extraction and Extirpate seem narrow and situational in a Junk deck, but are mainboardable answers for someone who is playing 8Rack
it may be a fluke, but I'm pretty sure that allies deck came from my original build. Here is a link to my decked account, there are links to where I did well in the dailies as well. http://tappedout.net/mtg-decks/all-in-allies/ I am on MODO as MadKat as well. In anycase, my goal was to get the deck recognized and it looks like people are starting to play it. Yay! I have a pretty good record of beating machines myself too, so hopefully dude can go all the way next time.
Since publication, KTK has fallen down to 2.2.... we are now in the utterly ridiculous territory of needing 90% winrate to break even on 2-player queues.
I took the announcement of a challenge, and made my own full version of TRM, and am even trying to get some drafts of it to see how the limited environment works. (I did/am doing a similar thing with MMA2, even before it was officially confirmed). I'd post my full list, but I don't think the comment form accepts links, so instead, some quick hits:
1. Things I cut: All the color hate, Licids, anything having to do with graveyard order, all non-Sliver gold cards
2. Shadow on creatures, en-Kors, and almost all Spikes are now only at uncommon or higher (in an attempt to at least try to adhere to NWO principles)
3. Mythics:
White:
Orim, Samite Healer
Cataclysm
Blue:
Ertai, Wizard Adept
Time Warp
Black:
Commander Greven il-Vec
Recurring Nightmare
Red:
Starke of Rath
Eladamri, Lord of Leaves
Survival of the Fittest
Gold:
Sliver Queen
Artifact:
Mox Diamond
Ensnaring Bridge
Sphere of Resistance
Land:
Wasteland (If you think Wizards is nice, swap this with City of Traitors)
Volrath's Stronghold
I haven't gotten into any format-crafting yet (other than hopefully making Slivers playable by printing all of them and having all 10 duals at uncommon), mainly since there isn't much to work with. For instance, I have half the commons you mentioned as cuttable in the set, since you need creatures that aren't horrible and spells that did something (Gaseous Form works well in the set with limited removal, Frog Tongue's a decent cantrip, Manta Riders is a curve filler for an blue fliers deck, and Blood Pet is good for the black aggro deck based around Scare Tactics). I want to write more about this process (for both this, and my MMA2 set), but I just don't have an outlet :/
Why are there more fetches than fetchable lands?
I agree that if Wizards thinks that there are too few Wastelands circulating they have no second thoughts about flooding the market and crashing the price like they did it for FoW.
I do not agree that no one collects on MTGO. As long as there is a price difference between various versions of the same non-redeemable card then some people value a collectable aspect over and above card functionality. In other words when someone pays more for a foil Wasteland than for a regular Wasteland then I would call them collectors (even when they actively use the foil Wastelands in a deck). It is certainly not speculation. But the slight difference in interpretation of a 'collector' does not really invalidate your point.
Nicely done, as always! I managed to scrape together four wastelands already, so TMR isn't something I'm into. I don't plan on trying to sell my wastelands now either. I like having them.
that's true. I basically sell any card I don't use, just because it clutters up the collection screen so much.
re: lands in TRM
This would be the first chance to get the old art in new frames, but that's probably not the reason.
I suspect that one reason is that it reduces the number of cards in the draft. By including the lands, we don't get 24 more commons per draft. Having more commons in the draft just makes it more repetitive.
Modern Masters had just 10 commons per pack, by including a foil as the 15th card. Admittedly, a foil would be better, but I'll settle for a land.
VMA card dropped a lot because VMA was sold far past the point at which they wanted it to end. TRM will be around for three weeks, not six months.
Wizards also needs the staples for a format - the lands and the cards that are played in many different decks, to be affordable. Wasteland, Force of Will and the duals are all cards Wizards needs to keep cheap. Also, no one collects on MTGO. Speculates, yes, but collects - no. Have you looked and the "collection screen?"
Baden Contracting of Manassas, VA proudly serves Northern Virginia communities with expert roof, siding and gutter repair, window and door installation, Kitchen & Bathroom remodeling and custom construction work. We pride ourselves in giving clients personal attention throughout the planning stage of every project, and we’re meticulous when it comes to detail. We look forward to helping you complete projects at your home or business.
For further details : www.badencontracting.com
I would be shocked if Wasteland is uncommon. Even at rare, the value is likely to drop by two-thirds. VMA duals and Force of Will dropped by a similar percentage (at rare) and those packs were $7 not $4. WotC has to at least give a token nod to the collectors. Sure a ME FoW is worth more than a VMA FoW but the underlying value still cratered.
I dont get why there is a basic land in each TR pack. VMA had no basic lands. There is no need for basic lands in an online only format.
Are they so pretty these basic lands that they are needed in the system?
Joe, where did you come across the list? I know I made this deck from scratch without looking at other list. Have we met in real life or facebook?
Interesting article, I think we also have to look at this from WOTC's perspective. The problem to them would be if the current pay-outs result in a lose of players revenue that is GREATER than the lose in revenue in any of the solutions. I wonder if we have any stats that show constructed events fire LESS often when the packs they pay are worth less. WOTC for sure has this so at least they can see if indeed the problem exists at all in mass. But then the question becomes are any of the options you laid out revenue favorable or at least neutral to WOTC.
I was intrigued when you mention "Players can "break even" on this prize structure with a win rate of around 45%." I think this is key, the question becomes what is the right % to attract players yet maintain a strong profit margin. We are assuming it should be 45%, and I like that as well (only have to win half the time is nice) but maybe we are working under the wrong assumption that WOTC wants it to be 45%.
Joe, where did you come across the list? I know I made this deck from scratch without looking at other list.
Great article, on point and with some reasonable solutions.
You should tweet it to Lee Sharpe and Worth, see if they say something
Great article, perfectly sums up a huge problem for us, Constructed grinders. Funnily enough, just as you wrote this article, pack prices raised up to 4+ for FRF and 2,5 for KTK :).
Out of the solutions you proposed, the 4th one seems the best and TugaChampion's solution (reducing the number of actual packs given) sounds reasonable.
thragtusk is also pretty good against Jund, and decks with Path to Exile.
Always nice to meet a fellow Tron addict!
Yeah, I haven't had the chance to personally try out the Leyline plan (also a matter of card availability) but I can see what you mean. I suppose there's a slim chance of being able to hardcast a Leyline off a couple of eggs, but its likely both too difficult and too late in the game to actually be feasible, and still has all the problems you mentioned regarding mulligans.
I hadn't considered Thragtusk before looking at lists for this article, but its definitely something I want to try next time I build a sideboard for an event.
Yeah, that's on me. I think I originally didn't have it in the list because I'd seen someone playing it at a recent modern event, but my brain misfired while I was editing. Also, thanks for your kind words!
True, but has disappeared in the wake of the bannings. Cruise and Dig were the enablers
I probably could have made that clearer that the suggestions were not for all archetypes i.e Surgical Extraction and Extirpate seem narrow and situational in a Junk deck, but are mainboardable answers for someone who is playing 8Rack
They were talking in the Overdrive! Chat about whose list they were using. If somebody has the Chat Log still they might be able to find out?
yeah I played against you with that deck.
it may be a fluke, but I'm pretty sure that allies deck came from my original build. Here is a link to my decked account, there are links to where I did well in the dailies as well. http://tappedout.net/mtg-decks/all-in-allies/ I am on MODO as MadKat as well. In anycase, my goal was to get the deck recognized and it looks like people are starting to play it. Yay! I have a pretty good record of beating machines myself too, so hopefully dude can go all the way next time.
Jeskai Ascendancy is still legal in Modern, you know?
Otherwise, great article.