• Pauper Premier Event Analysis: July 25, 2010   14 years 45 weeks ago

    Grats, Sexy!

    Dolmir:

    I could see running Decay on the rare time it can be 2for1.

    White removal but that's about it. I still don't like them maindeck anyway. What good do either of those do against goblins?

    Dispel isn't Hydroblast obviously. It's useless against Goblins but much closer against Burn (Hydro counters Marauders nicely). Of course I tap out sometimes, but only when I can get away with it and not lose. Having 1 mana available for Dispel really isn't difficult, trust me.

    I'll try out Recoil but to me it seems it's only worth a spot if Twiddle gets popular, which it likely will. FOTM train, choo choo!

    Probe's a terrific card and I already have enough against aggro. It'll get replaced if I see Twiddle around.

    I could easily run graveyard hate. Bojuka Bog, done. Makes the deck slower but fills in a hole. But I don't think it's worth it. That single Pestilence deck doesn't scare me.

    Innocent Blood is the best removal spell that I'm running. I'd run eight if I could. Absolutely not cutting that one.

    Stuff will make more sense if you try it out. But some good points.

  • M10 Lessons for M11   14 years 45 weeks ago

    I can appreciate the complexity of the situation (it has the potential to be a semi-separating equilibrium, which is a bitch), but I still disagree. When you stick it, you are still only winning a third of the time. Given that you are only going to be playing two or three games during a match, I don't think it is worth sacrificing card quality to try to bait your opponent into playing around a card which only hurts you when it gets cast anyway. It seems you would be better served by deviously "showing" it in your deck even if it isn't there.

  • M10 Lessons for M11   14 years 45 weeks ago

    Ah but then you lose the possibility of actually using it to great affect. It is the stick. Sometimes you have to show you have the stick to keep the muggers in line.

  • State of the Program - July 30th 2010   14 years 45 weeks ago

    Free tourneys would certainly get me playing them. Free fun? sure why not? Though as seen with the PRES which are all free, I won't bother if there is too low a chance to win. Not that I can't win at all but if I feel the odds are I am going to face someone with better cards/skill etc I am less likely to be interested no matter that it is free. (The time commitment is fairly large too.)

    For example if I thought there was a 50% chance to go 2-1 in the weekly PREs Id go most of the time because even though Id prefer to sleep in, the PREs are fun things to do. But if I think it is 60% likely I am going to run into a tier 1 deck and not have fun I won't even be tempted.

  • State of the Program - July 30th 2010   14 years 45 weeks ago

    Asking for leagues Hammy? Way to pick the low-hanging fruit. :)

    When I think of "casual" constructed, I think of an environment where players are comfortable despite lacking cards. Draft and Sealed have too much churn for some, and become expensive. So yes, leagues do fit that niche. But I think you can get there with low-stakes Constructed.

    The PREs do.

  • Pauper Premier Event Analysis: July 25, 2010   14 years 45 weeks ago

    Some good points Dolmir.

  • Pauper Premier Event Analysis: July 25, 2010   14 years 45 weeks ago

    Why can't you cut a Diabolic Edict so that you can run a single Echoing Decay?

    I would never play Negate over Dispel in this deck. How many non-creature, non-instant spells do you need to counter?

    The problem with Dispel against burn is that it sometimes just doesn't counter anything because the opponent can play instants when you are tapped out (and don't tell me you won't tap out ever). It is still likely to counter something, but in multiples it is a little bit tougher and it is a huge stretch to say that it is close enough to Hydroblast.

    Can't you find room for a single Recoil in the sideboard? That card seems insane against Twiddlestorm.

    Is Probe really necessary? It seems like you already have a good game against other control decks.

    I don't see any graveyard hate - this sort of deck can lose to Grim Harvest really easily.

    With basically zero WW decks running around I don't think you need Innocent Blood.

  • M10 Lessons for M11   14 years 45 weeks ago

    A full stat sheet will take a bit of work (maybe early next week). However, for now, players playing Islands won 49.3% of their games while Swamps won 49.7%. So it isn't the color that's causing the difference.

  • M10 Lessons for M11   14 years 45 weeks ago

    I find the same thing when watching replays. Player plays Putrid Leech. Opponent drops an untapped mountain. You will NEVER see that player pump that leech for fear of lightning bolt. Do they have it? Who knows, but that mountain makes them NOT pump it.

  • M10 Lessons for M11   14 years 45 weeks ago

    The only way Consume Spirit can do more damage than Corrupt is if you have two non-swamp black mana sources (unless some of your swamps are destroyed in response to Corrupt, but that can't happen in M11). Considering that the only non-swamp black mana sources in the format are rare and there are only two of them, I would guess that this will happen less than 1% of the time.

    I also disagree with your classification of Excommunicate as removal. Its effect on the game is much more complex and most of the time, much weaker than Doom Blade or Pacifism.

    I really like what you have done here, but I have to agree with Youper. We have a lot of information here but I don't think that it is enough to make a judgement about some of these cards. Maybe Sign in Blood performed poorly compared to Divination because black decks are generally weaker than blue ones. Based on what is here I just don't know (maybe you could link to the full stat sheet from M10).

  • State of the Program - July 30th 2010   14 years 45 weeks ago

    I look forward to the Casual-ish constructed events it would be nice to know the format for the first week to give us a chance to do some deck building.

    I might give it ago depending on how the times convert to my part of the world, I've not tried to work it out yet.

  • State of the Program - July 30th 2010   14 years 45 weeks ago

    Wow. I've been saying this for the years since leagues have gone away. It's nice to see someone with the same sentiment. Frankly, I've played 0 tournaments in the past year, because I've just lost interest in that being the ONLY thing worth doing on MTGO. Having played in many paper tournaments back in the beginnings of the game, I got burnout real easy, so I tend to avoid playing them in any format. But I do like to play them. Here's the thing, leagues were great for me, because they kept my interest by playing in a pseudo casual format, and kept my attention to the game as a whole. When I was playing leagues, I also played in some tournament every week. Since leagues have left, I just can't keep my interest anymore.

  • State of the Program - July 30th 2010   14 years 45 weeks ago

    I couldn't go back to paper magic even if I wanted to – too expensive. On MODO I can pick up a game of a serious but casual format like Pauper or 100CS any time I want.

    Right now Mythics are supposed to be in about 1 of every 8 packs. I’d love to see it at 1 in 5 or even 1 in 4.

  • State of the Program - July 30th 2010   14 years 45 weeks ago

    I agree, there will be competitive decks in these queues. I do not see that as a problem though. Even FNM in the real world inevidibly has local "sharks" even if your local "pros" can't be bothered to waste there time.

    I think using the word casual is just tough because so many people have different perceptions of what that means. It is hard to think of any format with prizes as a "casual" format. Even the swiss draft queues are not really "casual." There are high rated players that play those events.

  • State of the Program - July 30th 2010   14 years 45 weeks ago

    I'm hardly a new player, but I can attest that the lack of leagues has drastically impacted my interest in even casual std constructed, let alone any kind of competitive event. Just an opportunity to play competitively with the new cards during release leagues was enough exposure to not only interest me in constructed, but give me experience in limited play I could translate into drafts.

  • M10 Lessons for M11   14 years 45 weeks ago

    You could get this same effect by NOT running Safe Passage as well.

  • State of the Program - July 30th 2010   14 years 45 weeks ago

    This really depends on your definition of shark.

    The top 1-3% of players are playing so often in so many events that QPs are not much of an incentive because they naturally accumulate all the points they can use. These players are probably making rent money off of Magic Online.

    Then there are the top 4-10% of players who will usually qualify but it is more of a struggle. They need to pick and choose the events they play in and take advantage of easy QPs at times. These players are probably making some money off of Magic Online but not enough to really offset the time invested in the game other than the fact that it is a fun hobby.

    Then there are players like me in the top 11-30% who have qualified a couple of times and can't afford the time and energy to do it every month. To us, these events look like great opportunities. These players are more or less breaking even or spending a little money at prereleases and playing a long time off of the winnings.

    I'm not a shark, but I've certainly been called one online before. To a new player any one of these kinds of players is a shark.

    Only the top 1-3% players would concider avoidin this tournament because of time vs. profit reasons, as everybody else is probably just going to ask themselves if this event is profitable at all.

    Like Amar said below, this doesn't really appeal to the players who almost exclusively play in the casual room.

  • State of the Program - July 30th 2010   14 years 45 weeks ago

    I get the same feeling on Sol Ring.

    I am hopeful that Demonic was banned because it was essentially the best card you could draw for two mana, while a mid to late-game Sol Ring has no where near the power level. The problem is the same could be said for the Moxes and Lotus which would seemly be auto-banned.

    Divining Top is basically played in every 100cs deck and is not banned.

    I am hopeful. If we knew ahead of time, I would auto-buy this set.

  • State of the Program - July 30th 2010   14 years 45 weeks ago

    You're a jerk-face-doody-head!!!!! /holdbreath

    No you're completely right, and that more or less validates my first statement. I use the term "Shark" loosely here, basically referring to someone who knowingly believes they outclass the potential competition these queues are set to bring, intended to dominate for easy packs and QP's.

    My initial statement and current belief, is simply that the prize payout and QP rewards are just not worth the time for "people like that".

  • M10 Lessons for M11   14 years 45 weeks ago

    I've seen a few other writers attempt it but Will surely does a fine job and is the most thorough and conscientious.

  • State of the Program - July 30th 2010   14 years 45 weeks ago

    Great, great post Amar. Exactly what I've come to expect from you. :)

    The only thing that I know for a fact is that a barrier to constructed is a devastating barrier to a 'free' constructed tournament. It's easy to forget that challenge once you have a decent collection, but 'free' constructed (or even super cheap constructed) carries a surprisingly large hurdle. Especially without... dare I say it... leagues.

    Leagues really were crucial to the growth of new tournament player->constructed player. I'll skip the background for now, but I can say from personal experience that getting people lots of cards in a somewhat casual atmosphere is a very good way to get them interested in Standard.

    I think that's possibly part of what these 'good value' sealed/draft queues are all about. Getting more and more cards into new players' hands and let the natural evolution of tournaments take over from there.

    At least, I think that's the hope. :) We'll see!

  • State of the Program - July 30th 2010   14 years 45 weeks ago

    I'll be bold (read: a jerk-face-doody-head)

    But any one who needs to nail the TNMO Constructed Queue for a QP isn't a 'shark'.

    Sharks should be already qualified based on doing somewhat well in the "real" queues.

    These queues will be so low level that anyone wrecking them for QP's can't seriously be considered a shark. Also, as mentioned, the value to time ratio is super, super low compared to pretty much anything else.

    My personal thought on this is that if a Joe Shmoe earns a QP, he'll be far more likely to investigate the QP's and what they are all about. See the possibility of getting to that next level. Some will start down the trail of Mt. MTGO based solely on that one QP the get from a TNMO queue. Guaranteed.

  • M10 Lessons for M11   14 years 45 weeks ago

    "If Safe Passage is sitting in your hand not being cast, then it is not contributing to your victory."
    I disagree with that statement. Generally I don't like discussing Statistics because they devolve into very arcane arguments so I will keep this as brief as possible. You hold a safe passage waiting for your op to play and they knowing you have it because they don't suck do not make the optimal play (assuming no fog or protection effects) they want to. Obviously, if they don't read you as having the safe passage, it should come up that you can play it for the win, so they do read it and you hold it for the whole game. That is most definitely an influence and a contribution. Whether it wins or not may be situational but the same can be said for pretty much any other card you are playing with. Deterrents are perhaps of questionable value in some circumstances but in many they can keep you alive without ever costing you anything.

  • State of the Program - July 30th 2010   14 years 45 weeks ago

    So I'm thinking about the TNM more, and how to create a "casual" event. and it occurs to me that I should probably send the MTGO staff a copy of Predictably Irrational by Dan Ariely.

    In it, he describes behavioral economics experiments and what makes people commit. One such experiment is like this: A table is set up selling baked goods on sale - two types. One is a "gourmet" dessert, it sells for $1. The other is a "discount" dessert, it sells for $0.50. The sale runs a little to establish a baseline control.

    Then they reduce the price of both, with signs noting the sale. The $1 item is marked down to $0.50. And the $0.50 item is marked down to $0.30. Then they compared which got a better pickup from the sale. Logically we might expect that the gourmet dessert would do better, since it's a bigger markdown and is better on a percentage basis. But the opposite is true - it's the smaller savings on the discount dessert that attracted people.

    So Ariely (and others, it's been tried a number of ways) concluded that appealing to those who weren't interested is less a matter of the savings and more a matter of reducing the commitment. This echoes down to the ultimate incentive, a free item. More will take a free 5c cookie than a half-price $1 treat.

    So applying this to MTGO's attempt at creating a "casual" event - that doesn't become overrun by sharks - I feel like this "look at the deal!" is nice, but the wrong approach. 13 pax from a nix tix draft is an awesome payout. 2 tix per constructed queue (half players walk away with value) is a small commitment. But if their goal is to lure people who are apprehensive about tournaments, I don't see this getting them over that hump.

    What would work great at that is a free tournament with a token payout. Now that's difficult for Limited, so set that aside. But why not have a free constructed tournament which pays out in promos, with maybe a pack here or there. Sharks would absolutely not find this worth their time. It's not even good practice for them. Even non- (but would-be) sharks would rather try something more serious. But to someone who never ventured out of Cas/Cas because their best deck cost $10, it's a risk-free lure.

    Now the short-sighted view on this is "what's in it for Wizards?" Which I fear is the pervasive view in Renton with their efforts to squeeze every penny. Sure, if you compare a free tournament with a "pay $2 to enter" one it looks like the latter is better business. But I'm not pitching a new business model. Just a once-a-week promotion, targeted at the bottom of the pyramid, to encourage them to move up. But I don't think they see that angle.

    And so what we have is a fairly generous event that will cannibalize regular draft queues and not do much to lure new players. Eventually they'll reduce the payouts here and we'll just have more tournament noise. That won't be hurting anything. I just think they keep missing this opportunity to lure casual players the way they want to.

    Hey, look at that. I found a way to be negative after all. :)

    Addendum: Last year for the free CAW tournaments, people took off from jobs that pay $200+ a day to play a free CAW tournament and were devastated that they couldn't get in. I present this as further evidence of the lure of "free" to encourage predictably irrational behavior.

  • The Burning Kiln   14 years 45 weeks ago

    Sure, similar to the above, no needle drops/sparkies - 4x searing blaze and 3x lavadart - and no forgotten caves, just 3 more mountains - need mana consistancy and extra mnts for lavadart. Messing about with reckless charge/cinder (R - creature gets haste and draw a card) - just have fun with it, and remember after boarding, you can pyroblast your own stuff to get the ability - it doesn't have to be blue :)

    Raze is an MVP - and another reason to have 20 lands if your running this, do not cut it, especially with the storm and twiddle storm on the rise, which I played last week!