I always appreciate video in articles compared with write ups or reports. Live with commentary would probably be my first pick in terms of hearing why you make certain choices at certain points in the game. I know this is much more time consuming than straight up replays so if you are continue to do replays, I think replays with music would be better than stock mtgo sounds. The mtgo sounds can get quite annoying although I know I can mute these videos myself.
Good article though and it will be interesting to see how this deck transforms in the next few weeks as M11 cards become available.
Another thing I wanted to mention was the small synergy between Halimar Depths and Coiling Oracle in my pauper list. Use the depths to place a land at the top of your library, and cast the Oracle to guarantee acceleration. The rule is: if it feels like cheating, it must be good.
Secondly, I've no idea why the pic and link for Captivating Vampire isn't working. Apologies for that.
There is no argument that there is precedent. And sure it is nice to want everyone to have access to the cool cards. But that isn't how Wizards operates. Ever.
i think it could be said these were printed rare and they are "beginner" planeswalkers? then at least everyone could conceivably have a better chance at acquiring them.
And if they had players would complain how unfair it is that 5 planeswalkers aren't mythic and why aren't the rest not mythic? So to keep their word they have to screw someone.
thats very true. I think wizards could have eased a lot of this debate by simply releasing the 'Big Five' aka original 'walkers as rares like they were in Lorwyn. I dont think it would have messed with anyone of the current setup when they could have just shifted around some other rarities like protean hydra and akroms sword to mythic to fill the slots.
I like all the work you have done, but I disagree with some of the conclusions being drawn from the data. Removal tests a players skill. Weaker players will misuse their removal, wasting it and giving the match away. Your data does however show something good magic players have known for some time, and that is removal that can go to the dome is preferable to removal that only kills critters. Removal that allows you to also choose new targets every turn is not only more versatile but also more forgiving than one shot effects(pacifism as opposed to blinding mage.) The blinding mage is obviously the better spell to M10 vets, but it is also easier to use than pacifism. Harms Way was infamously difficult to use(largely due in part to the limitations of the software), and I would expect it to have a poor showing despite the fact that it was very swingy in a strong players hands. I think the takeaway here is that a card that is difficult to use is going to rate lower stastically, even if it is a strong card. None-the-less I do find your data valuable in evaluating removal, at least in regards to comparing it to other removal.
There is also a significant difference between sealed deck and draft, and I could be wrong but unless I was mistaken LSV was reffering to Safe Passage's strength in draft. M10 draft left the battlefield clogged, and matches would end up coming down to who hit their bomb first. Safe Passage helped to end stale mates by turning unprofitable attacks into profitable ones, as well as neutering other opponents bombiest cards. It wasn't the sort of card that would turn a bad deck into a good one, but it gave good decks an edge against other good decks in a very common situation that would arrive during play. It could have ended up just sitting in your hand when you are already losing if you failed to establish and maintain some board presence, but in a draft set that played like M10 did it was worth that risk.
I wouldn't share my criticism if your work wasn't worth discussing, and its my personal opinion that your articles are a very strong addition to the site. I look forward to seeing the data on M11. Thank you for your hard work.
If you cast it because you are desperate to stop something, but end up losing anyway, does that make it a lesser card?
>>Yes. But lesser than what is a more important question.
What if you lay down a turn 1 on the play Elite Vanguard (41.3%) and use it to clear out their first blocker which doesn't arrive until their turn 3, your turn 4? Speaking of the Vanguard, how many times was it an early play? How many times was it played in a topdeck situation? What other cards are there in the deck that support it?
>>I can't answer those questions directly, but this methodology allows you to see how useful a 2/1 for one mana is. Sure, it is great on turn one. But how often does that happen in practice? I don't know. Let the data figure that out for you.
How many games were won when a player played both swamps and islands? Were the win percentages increased for these lands when paired with mountains? Since you NEVER cannot play a land that you have in hand, what happens to the data if a player gets colour screwed? What if they keep a risky 1 or 2 land hand, and fail to draw more?
>>A lot of questions that I cannot answer. But, then again, everyone else is clueless about this too. It would be nice to collect that type of data, but that is expensive to do--more expensive than anyone is willing to pay for at the moment.
While I agree about the mythic rare power being totally misrepresented early-on, there is a card that says (synonymously) destroy target planeswalker - Vampire Hexmage. Pulse does the job efficiently too, and Obliv Ring is a reasonable non-black answer.
That being said, hopefully we'll see more walker-killers. If they had brought back Faith's Fetters in M11 even, that would have been huge.
I like reading these articles, purely for another point of view, but in terms of usefulness I find them underwhelming. There is a simple reason for this, and if you've ever read a set review you'll have heard this one before - 'you can't judge cards in a vacuum'.
Take Pacifism, which reached 50.3%. If you stop a fatty with it, then the opponent casts Solemn Offering (a quite unbelievable 68%, and a card that cannot even be cast without a target) on your Pacifism, your data would move towards the idea that Solemn Offering is a better card than Pacifism, which it has. If you cast it because you are desperate to stop something, but end up losing anyway, does that make it a lesser card? What if you lay down a turn 1 on the play Elite Vanguard (41.3%) and use it to clear out their first blocker which doesn't arrive until their turn 3, your turn 4? Speaking of the Vanguard, how many times was it an early play? How many times was it played in a topdeck situation? What other cards are there in the deck that support it?
'However, for now, players playing Islands won 49.3% of their games while Swamps won 49.7%. So it isn't the color that's causing the difference.'
How many games were won when a player played both swamps and islands? Were the win percentages increased for these lands when paired with mountains? Since you NEVER cannot play a land that you have in hand, what happens to the data if a player gets colour screwed? What if they keep a risky 1 or 2 land hand, and fail to draw more?
On a side note, what happens if both players play Pacifism? Does that nudge the average closer to 50%?
i realize this of course. what makes people pay these prices? the utter awesomeness of many mythics maybe? people relying only on the strentgh of the "netdecks"? i dunno.
the thing i say is wrong is the inclusion of the mythic rare itself. i cannot believe that prices would rise up to these many many expensive cards if they weren't all mythics.
on the stance of mark roseberg, the potential of being awesome and the complexity of the card make it a mythic, got that. but then i misunderstood the word potential, too. for me that means, a card "can" be very good but doesn't mean "impossible to be not a multiformat allstar".
and of course a mythic may be a powerful card, but a feeled 50% of them seem to be staples in every deck, while next level bant (stupid deck name by the way :)) is a peak of nastyness (not play-wise).
Dolmir's right about Recoil. It's a blowout against Twiddle Storm, and I bet it'll be in bigger numbers next PE. I'm thinking about putting a full playset in the sideboard, Probes getting cut and probably a Dispel.
I've also tried out another EE for Exclude and I like it.
I could run a single Coffin Purge or Shred Memory in the SB. Maybe a Dispel could get cut for it.
Right now I'm testing Condescend instead of Prohibit but I'm finding mixed results. Sometimes better, sometimes not.
Thanks for the advice guys!
EDIT: Oops, forgot about Capsize. Capsize > Recoil.
but none the less interesting point i certainly wouldnt waste time doin it not that i am a shark. unfortunatly human i would rather pay for a better possible payout but i guess that makes the thing not for me then huh? nice post i couldnt find a way to be negative:(
i guess for me blink decks just feel so underwhelming. Like nothing i am doin feels like anything more than a cute trick. i know when i play vs blink even when i see them do the evoke mulldrifter blink for four cards thing everyone loves. i just think to myself oh thats cute knowing that nothing in the deck is really gonna beat me. Not to say i haven't lost to blink i actually lost to softpillow at that tpdc you got the list from i was playin MUC and he kept my EE tapped down one game and the other i was stuck on one island and a quicksand forever. Anyway i digress to me blink feels like it needs a better wincon or just somethin better to do. well thats my piece liked the article thanks for writin it.
It doesn't give counters, so it won't reset creatures with persist. I also quite like Necra Sanctuary as there are plenty of green/white cards that can trigger it, and causing life loss in G/W is a bit unusual. Works great with Sterling Grove, either as a tutor or to protect it. Privileged Position obviously works well too.
The Auratouched Mage/Eldrazi Conscription combo is OK. If you play with Arcanum Wings too, you can still get the Conscription into play even if it's in your hand when you cast the Mage.
Caustic Tar is especially good with effects that untap lands. OK, that's obvious, but if you've got an Earthcraft/Squirrel Nest combo in your deck and a few other other land untappers, Caustic Tar can be much better than Squirrel Nest simply due to the speed at which it can end the game--you can still end up losing matches when you get the Earthcraft/Nest combo going simply due to running out of time.
Willbender and other target-changing effects can upgrade Evangelize so that it steals the creature you want.
Grim Reminder ... a card I've been meaning to try since it was printed, since it seems like a natural fit in a 5-colour "good stuff" deck. This /should/ be much better in 100CS because of the potential for overlapping sets of cards between a 5-colour good stuff deck and any other deck you're likely to play against. A pity that Entomb is so expensive.
How did the Crystal ball fare compared to other scry spells and card draw?
Scry in general feels strong in limited and C-Ball looks like 'Divining Top junior' due its filtering ability.
The idea to run Dispel obviously grows from my intention to win dogfights versus any types of Mono Blue, Blue and Black, UBr and other controls. Because the only serious finisher in this deck, Errant Ephemeron, goes for their souls at yours upkeep. So you should run cheap anti-counters in order to have some fuel for the following opponent's turn.
Wait...I missed the part where it actively hurts you to cast it. To me it seems like a devastating blow if it fires off unless you waste it to stop damage that wouldn't be disadvantageous to take. If you are taking that 33% from actual losses from games where it was cast I am going to start point fingers at otherwise bad decks and probably bad players. And I say that as a NONgood player.
Well, the two points about dispel were directed more towards Sexy_Commando. I'm not really suggesting you play either dispel or negate in this deck.
I'm not saying Bojuka Bog is the right card for this deck but I think you need some way to stop an opposing Grim Harvest. It could just be a single instant in the sideboard.
I always appreciate video in articles compared with write ups or reports. Live with commentary would probably be my first pick in terms of hearing why you make certain choices at certain points in the game. I know this is much more time consuming than straight up replays so if you are continue to do replays, I think replays with music would be better than stock mtgo sounds. The mtgo sounds can get quite annoying although I know I can mute these videos myself.
Good article though and it will be interesting to see how this deck transforms in the next few weeks as M11 cards become available.
Another thing I wanted to mention was the small synergy between Halimar Depths and Coiling Oracle in my pauper list. Use the depths to place a land at the top of your library, and cast the Oracle to guarantee acceleration. The rule is: if it feels like cheating, it must be good.
Secondly, I've no idea why the pic and link for Captivating Vampire isn't working. Apologies for that.
There is no argument that there is precedent. And sure it is nice to want everyone to have access to the cool cards. But that isn't how Wizards operates. Ever.
i think it could be said these were printed rare and they are "beginner" planeswalkers? then at least everyone could conceivably have a better chance at acquiring them.
And if they had players would complain how unfair it is that 5 planeswalkers aren't mythic and why aren't the rest not mythic? So to keep their word they have to screw someone.
thats very true. I think wizards could have eased a lot of this debate by simply releasing the 'Big Five' aka original 'walkers as rares like they were in Lorwyn. I dont think it would have messed with anyone of the current setup when they could have just shifted around some other rarities like protean hydra and akroms sword to mythic to fill the slots.
People who can't afford them don't want cheap answers for Planeswalkers, they want cheaper Planeswalkers.
I like all the work you have done, but I disagree with some of the conclusions being drawn from the data. Removal tests a players skill. Weaker players will misuse their removal, wasting it and giving the match away. Your data does however show something good magic players have known for some time, and that is removal that can go to the dome is preferable to removal that only kills critters. Removal that allows you to also choose new targets every turn is not only more versatile but also more forgiving than one shot effects(pacifism as opposed to blinding mage.) The blinding mage is obviously the better spell to M10 vets, but it is also easier to use than pacifism. Harms Way was infamously difficult to use(largely due in part to the limitations of the software), and I would expect it to have a poor showing despite the fact that it was very swingy in a strong players hands. I think the takeaway here is that a card that is difficult to use is going to rate lower stastically, even if it is a strong card. None-the-less I do find your data valuable in evaluating removal, at least in regards to comparing it to other removal.
There is also a significant difference between sealed deck and draft, and I could be wrong but unless I was mistaken LSV was reffering to Safe Passage's strength in draft. M10 draft left the battlefield clogged, and matches would end up coming down to who hit their bomb first. Safe Passage helped to end stale mates by turning unprofitable attacks into profitable ones, as well as neutering other opponents bombiest cards. It wasn't the sort of card that would turn a bad deck into a good one, but it gave good decks an edge against other good decks in a very common situation that would arrive during play. It could have ended up just sitting in your hand when you are already losing if you failed to establish and maintain some board presence, but in a draft set that played like M10 did it was worth that risk.
I wouldn't share my criticism if your work wasn't worth discussing, and its my personal opinion that your articles are a very strong addition to the site. I look forward to seeing the data on M11. Thank you for your hard work.
I agree, i think they may have made them tooo mythic for my taste.
If you cast it because you are desperate to stop something, but end up losing anyway, does that make it a lesser card?
>>Yes. But lesser than what is a more important question.
What if you lay down a turn 1 on the play Elite Vanguard (41.3%) and use it to clear out their first blocker which doesn't arrive until their turn 3, your turn 4? Speaking of the Vanguard, how many times was it an early play? How many times was it played in a topdeck situation? What other cards are there in the deck that support it?
>>I can't answer those questions directly, but this methodology allows you to see how useful a 2/1 for one mana is. Sure, it is great on turn one. But how often does that happen in practice? I don't know. Let the data figure that out for you.
How many games were won when a player played both swamps and islands? Were the win percentages increased for these lands when paired with mountains? Since you NEVER cannot play a land that you have in hand, what happens to the data if a player gets colour screwed? What if they keep a risky 1 or 2 land hand, and fail to draw more?
>>A lot of questions that I cannot answer. But, then again, everyone else is clueless about this too. It would be nice to collect that type of data, but that is expensive to do--more expensive than anyone is willing to pay for at the moment.
While I agree about the mythic rare power being totally misrepresented early-on, there is a card that says (synonymously) destroy target planeswalker - Vampire Hexmage. Pulse does the job efficiently too, and Obliv Ring is a reasonable non-black answer.
That being said, hopefully we'll see more walker-killers. If they had brought back Faith's Fetters in M11 even, that would have been huge.
I like reading these articles, purely for another point of view, but in terms of usefulness I find them underwhelming. There is a simple reason for this, and if you've ever read a set review you'll have heard this one before - 'you can't judge cards in a vacuum'.
Take Pacifism, which reached 50.3%. If you stop a fatty with it, then the opponent casts Solemn Offering (a quite unbelievable 68%, and a card that cannot even be cast without a target) on your Pacifism, your data would move towards the idea that Solemn Offering is a better card than Pacifism, which it has. If you cast it because you are desperate to stop something, but end up losing anyway, does that make it a lesser card? What if you lay down a turn 1 on the play Elite Vanguard (41.3%) and use it to clear out their first blocker which doesn't arrive until their turn 3, your turn 4? Speaking of the Vanguard, how many times was it an early play? How many times was it played in a topdeck situation? What other cards are there in the deck that support it?
'However, for now, players playing Islands won 49.3% of their games while Swamps won 49.7%. So it isn't the color that's causing the difference.'
How many games were won when a player played both swamps and islands? Were the win percentages increased for these lands when paired with mountains? Since you NEVER cannot play a land that you have in hand, what happens to the data if a player gets colour screwed? What if they keep a risky 1 or 2 land hand, and fail to draw more?
On a side note, what happens if both players play Pacifism? Does that nudge the average closer to 50%?
i realize this of course. what makes people pay these prices? the utter awesomeness of many mythics maybe? people relying only on the strentgh of the "netdecks"? i dunno.
the thing i say is wrong is the inclusion of the mythic rare itself. i cannot believe that prices would rise up to these many many expensive cards if they weren't all mythics.
on the stance of mark roseberg, the potential of being awesome and the complexity of the card make it a mythic, got that. but then i misunderstood the word potential, too. for me that means, a card "can" be very good but doesn't mean "impossible to be not a multiformat allstar".
and of course a mythic may be a powerful card, but a feeled 50% of them seem to be staples in every deck, while next level bant (stupid deck name by the way :)) is a peak of nastyness (not play-wise).
At least, it's cheaper and there are some situations when you do need 1 CMC doom blade in the middle-late game.
Maybe we should try single Ghastly Demise instead of single Doom Blade?
Dolmir's right about Recoil. It's a blowout against Twiddle Storm, and I bet it'll be in bigger numbers next PE. I'm thinking about putting a full playset in the sideboard, Probes getting cut and probably a Dispel.
I've also tried out another EE for Exclude and I like it.
I could run a single Coffin Purge or Shred Memory in the SB. Maybe a Dispel could get cut for it.
Right now I'm testing Condescend instead of Prohibit but I'm finding mixed results. Sometimes better, sometimes not.
Thanks for the advice guys!
EDIT: Oops, forgot about Capsize. Capsize > Recoil.
SB now: 1 Coffin Purge, 3 Capsize, 2 Disfigure, 1 Doom Blade, 2 Dispel, 1 Deep Analysis, 1 Hydroblast, 4 Duress
Gobs: -4 teachings, +2 disfigure, +1 doom blade, +1 hydro
MUC: -2 mulldrifter, -4 blood, +1 deep, +2 dispel, +1 doom
Twiddle: -4 blood, -1 grim, -2 mull, -1 wail, -3 edict, +4 duress, +2 dispel, +3 capsize, +2 disfigure
Stompy: -4 teachings, -1 exclude, +2 disfigure, +2 dispel, +1 doom
Affinity: -3 prohibit, +2 disfigure, +1 doom
This is what I love about posting decks here. I get such great feedback to make the deck better. Much appreciated.
Great, more cards I have to buy now!
but none the less interesting point i certainly wouldnt waste time doin it not that i am a shark. unfortunatly human i would rather pay for a better possible payout but i guess that makes the thing not for me then huh? nice post i couldnt find a way to be negative:(
unless it "starts to pull a J. Edgar Hoover". LOL :-)
i guess for me blink decks just feel so underwhelming. Like nothing i am doin feels like anything more than a cute trick. i know when i play vs blink even when i see them do the evoke mulldrifter blink for four cards thing everyone loves. i just think to myself oh thats cute knowing that nothing in the deck is really gonna beat me. Not to say i haven't lost to blink i actually lost to softpillow at that tpdc you got the list from i was playin MUC and he kept my EE tapped down one game and the other i was stuck on one island and a quicksand forever. Anyway i digress to me blink feels like it needs a better wincon or just somethin better to do. well thats my piece liked the article thanks for writin it.
It doesn't give counters, so it won't reset creatures with persist. I also quite like Necra Sanctuary as there are plenty of green/white cards that can trigger it, and causing life loss in G/W is a bit unusual. Works great with Sterling Grove, either as a tutor or to protect it. Privileged Position obviously works well too.
The Auratouched Mage/Eldrazi Conscription combo is OK. If you play with Arcanum Wings too, you can still get the Conscription into play even if it's in your hand when you cast the Mage.
Caustic Tar is especially good with effects that untap lands. OK, that's obvious, but if you've got an Earthcraft/Squirrel Nest combo in your deck and a few other other land untappers, Caustic Tar can be much better than Squirrel Nest simply due to the speed at which it can end the game--you can still end up losing matches when you get the Earthcraft/Nest combo going simply due to running out of time.
Willbender and other target-changing effects can upgrade Evangelize so that it steals the creature you want.
Grim Reminder ... a card I've been meaning to try since it was printed, since it seems like a natural fit in a 5-colour "good stuff" deck. This /should/ be much better in 100CS because of the potential for overlapping sets of cards between a 5-colour good stuff deck and any other deck you're likely to play against. A pity that Entomb is so expensive.
How did the Crystal ball fare compared to other scry spells and card draw?
Scry in general feels strong in limited and C-Ball looks like 'Divining Top junior' due its filtering ability.
The idea to run Dispel obviously grows from my intention to win dogfights versus any types of Mono Blue, Blue and Black, UBr and other controls. Because the only serious finisher in this deck, Errant Ephemeron, goes for their souls at yours upkeep. So you should run cheap anti-counters in order to have some fuel for the following opponent's turn.
Wait...I missed the part where it actively hurts you to cast it. To me it seems like a devastating blow if it fires off unless you waste it to stop damage that wouldn't be disadvantageous to take. If you are taking that 33% from actual losses from games where it was cast I am going to start point fingers at otherwise bad decks and probably bad players. And I say that as a NONgood player.
Well, the two points about dispel were directed more towards Sexy_Commando. I'm not really suggesting you play either dispel or negate in this deck.
I'm not saying Bojuka Bog is the right card for this deck but I think you need some way to stop an opposing Grim Harvest. It could just be a single instant in the sideboard.