Wow, that Arcum deck looks like a double whammy of douchebaggery: prison and combo.
Personally, I dislike instant-win combos because they go against the nature of the game. At its heart, Commander is meant to be a social format, and sitting there with a masturbatory "hey, look, I win!" deck is the opposite of that. Also, for Pete's sake, Commander is a very broken format . . . you (in general, not Leviathan) aren't clever for assembling a game-breaking combo.
P.S.: FYI, if someone is interested, there's a great Commander podcast (although aimed largely at paper players) that just had its latest episode (season 2, episode 1) talk about another deck type that Leviathan isn't going to touch on, that is chaos decks. Look for it at mtgcast.com
Stompy is an old favorite from back in the day (I mean last century even :p). Senor Stompy too. Unfortunately it is often outclassed in the format it is intended for by other options. How does it fair in the current Pauper meta? Does it have decent sideboard options against the major players?
And I think our publisher has determined that two heads are better than one :-) Definitely keep in touch...you'll catch me in between testing out my own rouge-ish build that I plan to enter.
Great article Alex! Now I want to play the deck as soon as I can! :)
There's one thing I need your opinion about: Copperhorn Scout has tingled my interest since the SOM spoiler...Do you think he could have a spot in this deck, providing "mass vigilance on a stick"?
But it's the current UB the base for the future(1) Tezz? Because it doesn't look like that to me, it's very low on artifacts. The typical list is something like that:
4 Darkslick Shores
12 Swamp
11 Island
4 Carnifex Demon
4 Skinrender
1 Geth, Lord of the Vault
4 Memoricide
4 Grasp of Darkness
4 Stoic Rebuttal
4 Halt Order
4 Disperse
3 Contagion Clasp
1 Trigon of Thought
You can see it among the 4-0s or 3-1s in every recent daily event. So, what's that called? Like, UB Geth Control?
I think Memoricide is its best weapon, since in this format, with so few archetypes (so far, at least) you would know what to take out after the first land drop, and if you take out Venser/Koth/Architect, the opponent's deck will start to look like an empty shell.
(1) Well, that would be future for MTGO - Matignon played it in the match with Nelson, and the commenters made it seem like it was old story already.
I like the article; it has fair explanations of card choices and analyses. I would comment on the following however:
Briar Shield - I often auto-include this as a 4-of, as the gains from it are often huge. Sure, it may be an obvious telegraph but it interacts with the pit-skulk very nicely as there is a big difference between 2 power and 3 power against pauper goblins. In addition, many of the aggro decks you look to control in the metagame often tap out early, so responding to an early shield is not as simple as one might think.
Rogue Elephant - I agree with your comment here, however it is hugely meta-dependent and definitely puts a good dent in certain matchups. Resolving one on the play against mono-U or UB on turn one can be devastating (bar edict-shenanigans of course), and lays down some good early beats, especially if backed up by a briar shield on turn 2 against aforementioned mono-U control deck. It also provides storm with a very nasty clock, though comes at the cost of delaying thermokarst which many see as critical for dealing with non-traditional storm variants.
Shinen of Life's Roar - This again is an often undervalued card, even a miser's copy drawn and played in game 1 can throw off your opponent (even if the odds are a little low). It also acts very efficiently against Martyr of Ashes post-board, if it is cast turn 2 on the play.
Quirion Ranger - This is where I disagree with your article the most; I would say running 4-of this in every pauper stompy deck is not only a good idea, it is essential. The ability to cast this allows you to safely reduce your land count (thus spell-drawing probability is higher, and gives you more bodies for rancor and splitter) and even acts as a late-game enabler of groundswell. It also helps fill up your hand for mongrel if you have ~3 lands out that you don't need anymore. It also untaps your sentinel if it gets stuck. It untaps a creature for gather courage. It can get in for a critical bloodthirst damage for your pit-skulk against a deck that misses its one drop (granted, this is a rare case against aggro, but I digress). This kind of versatility means you not only have more options, but also allows for some very interesting mind games. Speaking of mind games...
Gather Courage - I am very happy you mentioned this, when I started running stompy in pauper very few people were using it so it had a lot of surprise value. It still does, but I'm not sure just how much anymore as pauper PE players will definitely expect it. It's certainly a card you want in there, but the question is how many to run without neutering your pump capabilities. I would consider lowering to 2, but thats personal preference imho.
Vines of Vastwood - This is purely a matter of taste, but again I would always maindeck four of these. There's rarely a point where I've found a vines and wished it was a GC or something else. Perhaps your experience differs.
Giant Growth - I feel this deserves a mention in the other options section, since it is the go-to card for a more explosive, albeit less consistent stompy builds. It was almost always a 4-of in stompy builds of old and certainly has not outlived it's time in the sun.
Interesting read (certainly worthy of a long comment :p), though I would prefer some different formatting. Breaking up the text with card images and perhaps formatting your subheadings would certainly aid readability.
With control decks making up the majority of the format, it's a really slow and boring format.
I mostly blame this on poor set design, at a minimum I would say really really lazy set design the likes of which I haven't seen since Mercadian Masques. (I understand that there will always be bad sets and that in order to make some of the worst mechanics viable they have to tone down power levels so far that a set doesn't do much in relation to the sets around it.) interblock synergy is supposed to help cary these sets but with a mechanic like infect or a watered down mechanic like Metalcraft it's really hard to see where these mechanics are going without support.
The precedeing set design going from shards are good, to lands matter, to sometimes combat damage isn't and artifacts kinda matter doesn't make much sense to me. (I know I'm skipping sub themes.)
"Forcing mechanics with flavor rationalization is lazy and poor design."
-Mark Rosewater, out of context but can be easily applied to Infect (although pushing a bad mechanic and rationalizing it after the fact as flavorful is a good disguise.)
Currently almost all of the best tools and counters to those tools are in the 3 colors that are the problem to begin with it doesn't leave much room for innovation.
Without better exile options digger engines and skyfisher based reccursion strategies are the best way to generate incremental and sometimes absolute card advantage.
When almost every permanent you play is board presence and a +1.
It is not hard to figure out that playing as many of these as possible will help keep you ahead.
Currently I'm hoping for a new deck out of Mirrodin besieged, I mostly enjoy formats that have a lot of variety and more then 1 general archetype dominating everything.
Jumbled rant over, man dragon Naturally speaking is great but now I need an editor for even the simplest of forum replies.
Piston Sledge + Spine of Ish Sah is tech and Grand Architect decks might want to try/use that tech. Of course that would mean dropping a few cards from the current list to be able to add them. I will surely think about this.
I still have my doubts about the Sphinx. Architect Blue won't play it because its big spells must be artifacts. WU Control might try it but the casting cost is what concerns me. For the same price that deck has the new Wrath of God AND a Wrath of God on legs (wings rather). Another six drop would be simply too much. And UB will not use it because Tezz needs artifacts. So what's left?
As you see, I have my doubts about it. When you look at the card it looks very nice, I know that. But when it comes to building decks, I just can't see a place for it. But of course that's just me.
Oh and the third article will be about Tezz mainly and plus a few other nice new options. So yes, I will cover UB.
Glad to see Cryptoplasm acknowledged as an interesting option, I think it's a very tactical creature. But it's true, it has no home yet, and probably can't find one just in the block.
Also, I'm expecting to see Consecrated Sphinx in blue decks very soon. Granted, if it was an artifact, that would be seen differently (it would have been an auto-4 of them in every blue deck, period), but as a 6-drop, it can block dragons and it gives you a ridiculously huge card advantage. I would put it as a candidate for "best in show" among all the block's creatures.
Another thought: the Johnny in me immediately liked Spine of Ish Sah when I saw it spoiled. Yet it's so sad to see it not being fully exploited. So, thinking about how all those Treasure Mages will just be 2/2 vanilla creatures once on the battlefield... what about trying a couple of Piston Sledges main deck? They would turn mages into juggernauts and thopters into sphinges, just for 3 colorless mana, and would start to recur the Spine once it's there. Also, they would protect the Architects from 3-burn spells.
I agree about the role reversal between Blue and Red in SOM block, that's nice.
In tournament reports, I see a lot of UB decklists with Carnifex Demons, Skinrenders and Memoricide, yet I never see that listed as one of the block's archetypes (it's always about Architect Blue, Koth Red and UW Control, plus sometimes infect). Do you plan to cover it in the third article of your cycle?
People were already using Tumble Magnet in their Koth Red decks; it's not a card I added (the first Koth Red deck at the beginning of the article has 4 for example). Even though at first it seems as a defensive card, you can always use it to tap an opposing Wurmcoil Engine and to attack freely with your 4/4 Mountain.
Koth Red relies on two cards to win which are Koth of the Hammer and Kuldotha Phoenix. The rest is for clearing the board and controling the game. This deck in my opinion is a bit different than usual Red decks because it has more Control elements than Aggro ones.
Which makes me thinking: Red is normally the color of aggression and Blue is the color of Control. In SOM Block, however, Blue is the aggressor and Red is the color of Control. I mean, Architect Blue likes to cast creatures over creatures and Koth Red likes to cast removal after removal.
And I think this is a nice change from what we usually do. WotC really neatly managed to switch roles for colors and I think I'm liking this!
huh, i missed that part since i havent seen anything about a standard deck yet. Though Im sure blue will be a component of the deck so i would expect its packing stoic rebuttals and/or Spell Pierce
Hey Hammy, you missed maybe an slightly obscured reason for FOW going up. It's tax return season, so people are buying. I was actually planning on buying a couple with my tax return. I wanted to do that last year when they were $80, and by the time I got my return they were $150. I'm wondering if this is a repeat of last year.
Hi Hamtastic, I drafted a ton of MED4 and have around 20 money cards left unsold.. (mostly lands, at least 1 of every dual and the lib and workshop etc) I plan to keep them a few more months in the hope they would gain a bit of value.. Is this a good plan historically? I learn a lot from your price graphs, but those only include extended and standard cards, or if older, non master ed cards....
Well, I mainly question the use of Magnets in a deck like this. This red deck has Phoenixes and Koths as win conditions and everything else is removal. With no six drops, mostly creature directed burn spells, and delaying tactics, this deck seems to rely too much on Koth and has few other aggressive options. Admittedly, I haven't tested any Mirrodin Besieged, but I always thought that some more aggression is needed.
I would agree with you that Architect decks gain a lot of enemies, and that's why I'm fairly confident that most of them will evolve and add a second color. Adding black for Tezzeret would definitely give the deck less dependancy on a surviving architect. Tezzeret's ability to make 5/5 creatures is just what the deck needs to stay out of Burn the Impure/Slagstorm/Grasp of Darkness range.
Also, your Koth deck seems to rely too much on Koth and doesn't seem to do much without him. 4x Sphere of the Suns and 3x Tumble Magnets with no way to reset them seems a bit weak to me.
I am a block only player right now and can't wait for the new set. Based on your updates both these decks look like they won't be too expensive to update outside of the Inkmoth Nexus. I think the infect lands will be more expensive than half of the Mythics when everything stabalizes.
Man, everytime I see that Gimli I remember my old LotR Dwarves deck. You know, the one with Gimli, Bearer of Grudges, Durin III and all those dwarven rings and stuff. It was really a sick deck!
Regarding the new Teferi called Shimmer Myr: Well, I played against it. I didn't take it seriously and payed that mistake pretty badly. I was somehow reading the card as "myr creatures you control have flash". But no, the card says "artifacts" and not just Myr. Meaning ANYTHING from Wurmcoil Engine to Spine of Ish Sah, from Myr Battlesphere to Mindslaver, from Molten-Tail Masticore to Precursor Golem. Anything!
So my advise will be very simple: Kill it the moment you see it! Believe me, you won't be sorry for that.
Sell prices mean almost nothing? Maybe to you! You might be trying to get someone to buy your rares from a draft 9 times out of 10. Me, I'm looking to find a store that'll sell me cards I want almost 10 times out of 10. So sell prices are 100% non-meaningless to me, also known as "meaningful".
This draft & deck were a little more loose than I usually play. But there's method to my madness. Since I was deciding to go "balls to the wall aggro", I decided to put in some bad artifacts to turn on my metalcraft dudes quicker. That worked out, as with 14 artifacts instead of 12 I ended up almost always having metalcraft. I should have drafted the liquimetal coating, though.
On the splashes, in a mono-colored deck where even the green mana requirements are pretty light, the extra value in having 14-15 forests is pretty small. I could see 12 rather than 11, especially if I'd had more double-green spells, but I didn't have many. The idea is instead of my replicas being a 1/4 and a 2/2 that "occasionally have extra value", this way they're almost always full-value cards, while I'm unlikely to ever be short on green mana I need. In this particular draft, I never was missing green, ever. And the replicas indeed usually had their abilities available. The one time I had an opener of two islands, Horizon Spellbomb (also in opening hand) got me a forest, then I topdecked another.
Mind you, there is a higher risk of a green mana shortage at 11 forests. It's just not much higher, so I went for it. If I had it to do over again, I might run 12.
is very hard to read. blank lines between paragraphs would make it easier.
Wow, that Arcum deck looks like a double whammy of douchebaggery: prison and combo.
Personally, I dislike instant-win combos because they go against the nature of the game. At its heart, Commander is meant to be a social format, and sitting there with a masturbatory "hey, look, I win!" deck is the opposite of that. Also, for Pete's sake, Commander is a very broken format . . . you (in general, not Leviathan) aren't clever for assembling a game-breaking combo.
P.S.: FYI, if someone is interested, there's a great Commander podcast (although aimed largely at paper players) that just had its latest episode (season 2, episode 1) talk about another deck type that Leviathan isn't going to touch on, that is chaos decks. Look for it at mtgcast.com
Stompy is an old favorite from back in the day (I mean last century even :p). Senor Stompy too. Unfortunately it is often outclassed in the format it is intended for by other options. How does it fair in the current Pauper meta? Does it have decent sideboard options against the major players?
And I think our publisher has determined that two heads are better than one :-) Definitely keep in touch...you'll catch me in between testing out my own rouge-ish build that I plan to enter.
Great article Alex! Now I want to play the deck as soon as I can! :)
There's one thing I need your opinion about: Copperhorn Scout has tingled my interest since the SOM spoiler...Do you think he could have a spot in this deck, providing "mass vigilance on a stick"?
But it's the current UB the base for the future(1) Tezz? Because it doesn't look like that to me, it's very low on artifacts. The typical list is something like that:
4 Darkslick Shores
12 Swamp
11 Island
4 Carnifex Demon
4 Skinrender
1 Geth, Lord of the Vault
4 Memoricide
4 Grasp of Darkness
4 Stoic Rebuttal
4 Halt Order
4 Disperse
3 Contagion Clasp
1 Trigon of Thought
You can see it among the 4-0s or 3-1s in every recent daily event. So, what's that called? Like, UB Geth Control?
I think Memoricide is its best weapon, since in this format, with so few archetypes (so far, at least) you would know what to take out after the first land drop, and if you take out Venser/Koth/Architect, the opponent's deck will start to look like an empty shell.
(1) Well, that would be future for MTGO - Matignon played it in the match with Nelson, and the commenters made it seem like it was old story already.
I like the article; it has fair explanations of card choices and analyses. I would comment on the following however:
Briar Shield - I often auto-include this as a 4-of, as the gains from it are often huge. Sure, it may be an obvious telegraph but it interacts with the pit-skulk very nicely as there is a big difference between 2 power and 3 power against pauper goblins. In addition, many of the aggro decks you look to control in the metagame often tap out early, so responding to an early shield is not as simple as one might think.
Rogue Elephant - I agree with your comment here, however it is hugely meta-dependent and definitely puts a good dent in certain matchups. Resolving one on the play against mono-U or UB on turn one can be devastating (bar edict-shenanigans of course), and lays down some good early beats, especially if backed up by a briar shield on turn 2 against aforementioned mono-U control deck. It also provides storm with a very nasty clock, though comes at the cost of delaying thermokarst which many see as critical for dealing with non-traditional storm variants.
Shinen of Life's Roar - This again is an often undervalued card, even a miser's copy drawn and played in game 1 can throw off your opponent (even if the odds are a little low). It also acts very efficiently against Martyr of Ashes post-board, if it is cast turn 2 on the play.
Quirion Ranger - This is where I disagree with your article the most; I would say running 4-of this in every pauper stompy deck is not only a good idea, it is essential. The ability to cast this allows you to safely reduce your land count (thus spell-drawing probability is higher, and gives you more bodies for rancor and splitter) and even acts as a late-game enabler of groundswell. It also helps fill up your hand for mongrel if you have ~3 lands out that you don't need anymore. It also untaps your sentinel if it gets stuck. It untaps a creature for gather courage. It can get in for a critical bloodthirst damage for your pit-skulk against a deck that misses its one drop (granted, this is a rare case against aggro, but I digress). This kind of versatility means you not only have more options, but also allows for some very interesting mind games. Speaking of mind games...
Gather Courage - I am very happy you mentioned this, when I started running stompy in pauper very few people were using it so it had a lot of surprise value. It still does, but I'm not sure just how much anymore as pauper PE players will definitely expect it. It's certainly a card you want in there, but the question is how many to run without neutering your pump capabilities. I would consider lowering to 2, but thats personal preference imho.
Vines of Vastwood - This is purely a matter of taste, but again I would always maindeck four of these. There's rarely a point where I've found a vines and wished it was a GC or something else. Perhaps your experience differs.
Giant Growth - I feel this deserves a mention in the other options section, since it is the go-to card for a more explosive, albeit less consistent stompy builds. It was almost always a 4-of in stompy builds of old and certainly has not outlived it's time in the sun.
Interesting read (certainly worthy of a long comment :p), though I would prefer some different formatting. Breaking up the text with card images and perhaps formatting your subheadings would certainly aid readability.
Keep on writing :p.
With control decks making up the majority of the format, it's a really slow and boring format.
I mostly blame this on poor set design, at a minimum I would say really really lazy set design the likes of which I haven't seen since Mercadian Masques. (I understand that there will always be bad sets and that in order to make some of the worst mechanics viable they have to tone down power levels so far that a set doesn't do much in relation to the sets around it.) interblock synergy is supposed to help cary these sets but with a mechanic like infect or a watered down mechanic like Metalcraft it's really hard to see where these mechanics are going without support.
The precedeing set design going from shards are good, to lands matter, to sometimes combat damage isn't and artifacts kinda matter doesn't make much sense to me. (I know I'm skipping sub themes.)
"Forcing mechanics with flavor rationalization is lazy and poor design."
-Mark Rosewater, out of context but can be easily applied to Infect (although pushing a bad mechanic and rationalizing it after the fact as flavorful is a good disguise.)
Currently almost all of the best tools and counters to those tools are in the 3 colors that are the problem to begin with it doesn't leave much room for innovation.
Without better exile options digger engines and skyfisher based reccursion strategies are the best way to generate incremental and sometimes absolute card advantage.
When almost every permanent you play is board presence and a +1.
It is not hard to figure out that playing as many of these as possible will help keep you ahead.
Currently I'm hoping for a new deck out of Mirrodin besieged, I mostly enjoy formats that have a lot of variety and more then 1 general archetype dominating everything.
Jumbled rant over, man dragon Naturally speaking is great but now I need an editor for even the simplest of forum replies.
Piston Sledge + Spine of Ish Sah is tech and Grand Architect decks might want to try/use that tech. Of course that would mean dropping a few cards from the current list to be able to add them. I will surely think about this.
I still have my doubts about the Sphinx. Architect Blue won't play it because its big spells must be artifacts. WU Control might try it but the casting cost is what concerns me. For the same price that deck has the new Wrath of God AND a Wrath of God on legs (wings rather). Another six drop would be simply too much. And UB will not use it because Tezz needs artifacts. So what's left?
As you see, I have my doubts about it. When you look at the card it looks very nice, I know that. But when it comes to building decks, I just can't see a place for it. But of course that's just me.
Oh and the third article will be about Tezz mainly and plus a few other nice new options. So yes, I will cover UB.
LE
Glad to see Cryptoplasm acknowledged as an interesting option, I think it's a very tactical creature. But it's true, it has no home yet, and probably can't find one just in the block.
Also, I'm expecting to see Consecrated Sphinx in blue decks very soon. Granted, if it was an artifact, that would be seen differently (it would have been an auto-4 of them in every blue deck, period), but as a 6-drop, it can block dragons and it gives you a ridiculously huge card advantage. I would put it as a candidate for "best in show" among all the block's creatures.
Another thought: the Johnny in me immediately liked Spine of Ish Sah when I saw it spoiled. Yet it's so sad to see it not being fully exploited. So, thinking about how all those Treasure Mages will just be 2/2 vanilla creatures once on the battlefield... what about trying a couple of Piston Sledges main deck? They would turn mages into juggernauts and thopters into sphinges, just for 3 colorless mana, and would start to recur the Spine once it's there. Also, they would protect the Architects from 3-burn spells.
I agree about the role reversal between Blue and Red in SOM block, that's nice.
In tournament reports, I see a lot of UB decklists with Carnifex Demons, Skinrenders and Memoricide, yet I never see that listed as one of the block's archetypes (it's always about Architect Blue, Koth Red and UW Control, plus sometimes infect). Do you plan to cover it in the third article of your cycle?
People were already using Tumble Magnet in their Koth Red decks; it's not a card I added (the first Koth Red deck at the beginning of the article has 4 for example). Even though at first it seems as a defensive card, you can always use it to tap an opposing Wurmcoil Engine and to attack freely with your 4/4 Mountain.
Koth Red relies on two cards to win which are Koth of the Hammer and Kuldotha Phoenix. The rest is for clearing the board and controling the game. This deck in my opinion is a bit different than usual Red decks because it has more Control elements than Aggro ones.
Which makes me thinking: Red is normally the color of aggression and Blue is the color of Control. In SOM Block, however, Blue is the aggressor and Red is the color of Control. I mean, Architect Blue likes to cast creatures over creatures and Koth Red likes to cast removal after removal.
And I think this is a nice change from what we usually do. WotC really neatly managed to switch roles for colors and I think I'm liking this!
LE
huh, i missed that part since i havent seen anything about a standard deck yet. Though Im sure blue will be a component of the deck so i would expect its packing stoic rebuttals and/or Spell Pierce
Hey Hammy, you missed maybe an slightly obscured reason for FOW going up. It's tax return season, so people are buying. I was actually planning on buying a couple with my tax return. I wanted to do that last year when they were $80, and by the time I got my return they were $150. I'm wondering if this is a repeat of last year.
He said it was for standard. :-) The legacy version is indeed amazing.
Hi Hamtastic, I drafted a ton of MED4 and have around 20 money cards left unsold.. (mostly lands, at least 1 of every dual and the lib and workshop etc) I plan to keep them a few more months in the hope they would gain a bit of value.. Is this a good plan historically? I learn a lot from your price graphs, but those only include extended and standard cards, or if older, non master ed cards....
Well, I mainly question the use of Magnets in a deck like this. This red deck has Phoenixes and Koths as win conditions and everything else is removal. With no six drops, mostly creature directed burn spells, and delaying tactics, this deck seems to rely too much on Koth and has few other aggressive options. Admittedly, I haven't tested any Mirrodin Besieged, but I always thought that some more aggression is needed.
Koth decks are all about the aggro. If you need to reset a tumble magnet or sphere of suns than you have already lost the game
I would agree with you that Architect decks gain a lot of enemies, and that's why I'm fairly confident that most of them will evolve and add a second color. Adding black for Tezzeret would definitely give the deck less dependancy on a surviving architect. Tezzeret's ability to make 5/5 creatures is just what the deck needs to stay out of Burn the Impure/Slagstorm/Grasp of Darkness range.
Also, your Koth deck seems to rely too much on Koth and doesn't seem to do much without him. 4x Sphere of the Suns and 3x Tumble Magnets with no way to reset them seems a bit weak to me.
I am a block only player right now and can't wait for the new set. Based on your updates both these decks look like they won't be too expensive to update outside of the Inkmoth Nexus. I think the infect lands will be more expensive than half of the Mythics when everything stabalizes.
Man, everytime I see that Gimli I remember my old LotR Dwarves deck. You know, the one with Gimli, Bearer of Grudges, Durin III and all those dwarven rings and stuff. It was really a sick deck!
Regarding the new Teferi called Shimmer Myr: Well, I played against it. I didn't take it seriously and payed that mistake pretty badly. I was somehow reading the card as "myr creatures you control have flash". But no, the card says "artifacts" and not just Myr. Meaning ANYTHING from Wurmcoil Engine to Spine of Ish Sah, from Myr Battlesphere to Mindslaver, from Molten-Tail Masticore to Precursor Golem. Anything!
So my advise will be very simple: Kill it the moment you see it! Believe me, you won't be sorry for that.
LE
Unless I'm missing something, spine of ish-shah and glissa don't do anything particularly exciting together (except trigger glissa once)?
Sell prices mean almost nothing? Maybe to you! You might be trying to get someone to buy your rares from a draft 9 times out of 10. Me, I'm looking to find a store that'll sell me cards I want almost 10 times out of 10. So sell prices are 100% non-meaningless to me, also known as "meaningful".
This draft & deck were a little more loose than I usually play. But there's method to my madness. Since I was deciding to go "balls to the wall aggro", I decided to put in some bad artifacts to turn on my metalcraft dudes quicker. That worked out, as with 14 artifacts instead of 12 I ended up almost always having metalcraft. I should have drafted the liquimetal coating, though.
On the splashes, in a mono-colored deck where even the green mana requirements are pretty light, the extra value in having 14-15 forests is pretty small. I could see 12 rather than 11, especially if I'd had more double-green spells, but I didn't have many. The idea is instead of my replicas being a 1/4 and a 2/2 that "occasionally have extra value", this way they're almost always full-value cards, while I'm unlikely to ever be short on green mana I need. In this particular draft, I never was missing green, ever. And the replicas indeed usually had their abilities available. The one time I had an opener of two islands, Horizon Spellbomb (also in opening hand) got me a forest, then I topdecked another.
Mind you, there is a higher risk of a green mana shortage at 11 forests. It's just not much higher, so I went for it. If I had it to do over again, I might run 12.
im pretty sure this deck is for legacy. at least all the versions i have seen are.