Investing in big-block rares (not mythics) is generally a turble turble plan. Niche rares such as Geist (powerful, but still only borderline playable atm) and Geralf's Messenger (too much Black in the cost) are turble investments unless you're going to resell with every spike.
For the long game, you want cheap mythics and universally playable rares/uncs. Lingering souls might be okay, Snappy is probably fine (since even though it's a big-block rare, it's universally playable), and gravecrawler might be a decent guess.
Inn duals are okay but I wouldn't hang onto them after they spike post-rotation to avoid risking duals being printed in m13 that outclass them (or just are them).
You fell into a trap that I fall into frequently: are you aggro or control with that deck? You drafted too many aggressive cards (think the shadow duder or even considering Isamaru) across three colors and multiple WW/BB/etc type cards. I think that taking the Precursor Golem pick 2 would have helped you stay more open instead of committing to an okay BB card. Then when Jace comes you can build around him (which is why brainstorm was fine, because you want to find the best card in the format!), and you can build either a WU aggro/tempo deck or a UBw control deck.
You can make tix off the bot price spread, but at 2 tix an hour (at most), is that really a good use of your time? Just stay 15 minutes longer at work, you'll make more money.
(the excitement of beating the system is higher trading back and forth on bots, I'll give you that)
I reply to you here quite randomly re: the speculation project, just to say: my comment last week was implicitly intended to say that you can succesfully (no skill, no luck involved) speculate over the bot spread, as I did, if you have a lot of patience, some time, and don't mind to make only tiny, tiny crumbs of tix. You can test that to verify it's true, but I assure you it's true.
What you are doing, instead, I would be very uncomfortable with, because it's really the same thing as predicting the stock market based on "how smart I am at seeing where the big business are" and/or "what my smartass friends tell me to invest into". It also reminds me of someone who's trying to test how much money you can make by betting on horse races. It's never a science, it's just a combination of acumen and luck.
The reason why there were so many anecdotes in the comments is because most of those aren't repeatable. I bought Elesh for 2. That was just luck. I bought her because I liked her, not because I was thinking, "wow, that's an investment, I can see this card going as up as 30 next year". It just taught me to not wait too long before buying the Mythics I like to have in my collection. But I'm not more able to predict the market now. Nobody really is, they're just all shots in the dark in the end, even when supported by some serious reasoning. It's just a matter of greater or lesser probability of being a winning horse.
Interesting buying decisions. I mentioned previously I think speculation is luck based, so I won't repeat myself, but I did have a suggestion. Because you are splitting your investment between all types of cards, might I suggest listing the Price to Earnings Ratio for each investment?
The reason I would never personally invest in Goyfs for speculation is they have to make an extremely large gain relative to other cards, which seems unlikely. A 20 ticket card has to go up 10 tickets to yield the same P/E ratio as a 10 ticket card going up 5. Even though I don't personally think it is going anywhere, I would sooner invest in 5 Vorapede than 1 Sorin for this reason. It seems more likely to me that Vorapede goes to 8 than Sorin hits roughly 40 tickets, although both are possible.
I like your methodology for the most part, it seems well thought out. Keep writing the best articles on modo.
The speculation portion is a great add to your series. I'm not sold on all your investment choices but some are certainly smart choices. DKA mythics are excellent choices, as are some of the big standard uncommons. Craig Wescoe wrote a pretty nice article on buying up uncommons on brainburstdotcom, definetly worth checking out.
I deliberately ignored the //buy/sell spread, along with the discount you can get if you buy in the marketplace, hang out in Auction, or shop BOTs. All of these will get you cards for less than the retail price, but all of these require you to invest time and effort. That's another debate. I realize the buy/sell difference is probably larger, but I'm just testing the concept that you can profit by investing in certain cards. I'm trying to hold the other variables constant.
That said, if Goyf jumps 3 TIX, I'm not going to claim I made a profit.
Each time you publish your investment portfolio of cards, you should put the total value so we can see how your entire portfolio is doing. Some speculators like to brag about their gains while hiding their losses, which is you know, illegal in real-world investing.
a couple people mentioned buying a high-priced, volatile card like Goyf and riding it up. So I'm trying it. Just one copy.
I bought only the really low priced Mythics that might have a chance of jumping. Agree that the this is not the time to by the costly ones.
I wanted to try one Titan. Right now, Primeval is high, and grave and Inferno seem to be at the tops of thier cycles. Av. erstored seems like it might have some decent white, so I'm betting on a UW control deck wanting Sun Titan. It is also about half the price it was at a few months ago, so i think the promo issue is past.
The duals are really cheap, played in Modern, and will almost certainly not be reprinted again, which will drive them up over time.
I agree with most of what you say, but I want pretty restrictive rules, otherwise the debate will degenerate into whether I sodl out at the right time, or took a loss too early, etc. I'll probably hae to revise that - maybe have a periodic poll on whether I should cash in certain losses. We have some time to figure that out.
I don't agree with your assessment of WHY Voropede is the card to watch. But that said I am no pro and certainly no merchant. So I take my own opinion with a grain of salt. On to the thing you said that does jibe with my own thoughts (aside from the obviousness that is snapcaster) Mox Opal is certainly a staple now for any deck that has easy metalcraft. Unfortunately it is pricy enough that people would rather just stick to the moxen that are more readily available. Maybe when SOM cycles the price will drop a little but I doubt it. As you indicate it will probably remain stable or raise.
In Re: Lingering Souls/Intangible Virtue this was clearly a popularity ban rather than a broken beyond belief ban. Same reasoning as Mystic and Jace 2. People were including these cards in every deck pretty much and those who weren't were vocal about how much they disliked seeing them everywhere. Being ubiquitous is enough to earn a ban these days I guess. And tokens will still be popular even without the flagships because the theme is so imbedded in the sets. Too bad for ISD block because there are plenty of other interesting possibilities that will be ignored because Hellriders + tokens is just awesomeness waiting to happen.
Oh man, I have the Vorapede argument every damn time I play paper. Nobody believes me. I think, and keep your laughing down, that:
Vorapede > Thrun.
On a long term curve here, Vorapede is nasty, and Wizards announced that they want to lower the power level of creatures to go down. (Read anything that R&D has mentioned recently in interviews). That is why we are pretty much guaranteed that Titans aren't being reprinted. Vorapede takes 2 removal spells to kill. And very few decks can deal with that late game. That is why it is run in my Ramp Deck. Not to mention if you clone it, the clone gains undying. I think it is overlooked and will be a green staple. I know, Thrun is 4/4 for 4 mana, hexproof, amazing, etc.. But Vorapede is nasty.
When it comes to Snappy, he can actually be used the way he is supposed to be used. With no Flashback in Avacyn Restored, there might be some badass things to flash back with the once Format Dominating Snappy the Snapcasting Mage.
Oh and speculative note, which this is about, how about you put Mox Opal on the "future buy list" and buy it when SOM is cycling out. I think it will be one of the few cards from SOM that have lasting appeal.
**I'm confused. When SOM block was around, Tezzeret was owning the format. It was winning every tournament, and they didn't ban that. So why make bans in ISD block when you didn't do the same in SOM block? It isn't like Intangible Virtue and Lingering Souls were the greatest card in the deck. It just makes Curse of Death's hold that much better. That means that BW decks will just change to BWg, and there will still be RW. Although I doubt Werewolves will catch on.
- Smart choice with Isolated Chapel. Sulfur Falls was once the #1 land, now it's one of the cheapest in paper. It is still the best land though.
***I am taking 3-1 odds that Goyf is being reprinted in M13.
For the duals, I've been investing in the blue ones, Sulfur Falls and Hinterland Harbor. If we look at the SOM Block duals, the blues saw the greatest increase in price. I see these as pretty low risk specs. It is very doubtful that WOTC is going to print another set of enemy duals, which is only the real thing that I see as keeping the price from reaching 3-5 tix each.
Lingering Souls is obviously a very powerful card and I think it is a steal at the ~.5 tix it's been going for. This speculation is a bit risky since it was just banned in Block, so perhaps WOTC is beginning to regret printing this card and will, when SOM Block rotates, likewise ban Lingering Souls in standard. This card won the recent Legacy GP and I wouldn't be surprised if it became a player in Modern. If it is banned in Standard I still think it will go up in the long run.
Gravecrawler/Geralf's Messenger -- Zombies is one of the top decks now and I see no reason that it won't remain so once SOM Block rotates.
Dungeon Geist -- Same as above. Though it has fallen out of favor, once Corrosive Gale rotates this could certainly be a major deck.
Snapcaster Mage -- The most difficult to properly examine. I am incredibly curious to see where he ends up by this time next year. It takes quite a lot for a rare to break the 10 dollar mark, much less hit the 15 or so some people might expect out of a card this powerful. Stoneforge Mystic was over 15 but was in Worldwake, the equivalent of DKA which had a much shorter draft-time than INN. Likewise, Birthing Pod hit 13 last year in a set with an even shorter draft-time than INN or WW. I'm pretty sure that Snapcaster Mage will go up. That being said, I would be incredibly surprised if he broke the 15 tix mark. Stoneforge Mystic and Birthing Pod were both pretty dominant during their price hike. Snapcaster Mage, on the other hand, sees play in a plethora of different decks, from control to Delver, but, unlike SM or BP, is not a signature card in either of those decks. He provides value, but is not a role-player.
I'd be very curious to see what people have to say on this Snapcaster Mage matter.
'Hard Satin' arose from a conversation 'twixt Blippy and myself. I was pondering either calling he deck 'in white satin' or 'a hard day's', and Blippy suggested the compromise, to which I replied with the comment attributed to my deck.
I really like what you've started here and the comments. I think it would make a whole column and could be a great educational piece for young investors who 'get Magic' but not the stock market, as much of the dicussions seems to be applying commodity lessons to MTGO.
Out of curiosity, how much did you invest? I might try and put a similiar amount down in a different strategy and compare notes periodically on value, timing and lessons learned. There are probably some others who'd do the same. I have an account which is mostly empty which I could use just for this project.
1) Tarmgoyf, this seems strange as you had just finished talking about how you wouldn't buy into modern. And your first pick is a modern staple. This one seems a mistake.
2) Onslaught fetchlands, I like this one, nice long term pick up at good prices, as long as they are not bloodstained mire, the least played and it was printed as a promo.
3) DA mythics, I like this, but the timing seems wrong. 4-5 weeks out, prices will probably be lower.
4) Random DA rares, cheap is fine, and can be worth a gamble, but not my favorite strategy due to high transaction costs.
5) Past in Flames, yep, a good pick up. I think most INN mythics will hold value in the coming year, and this one is Modern playable. If it breaks in Standard, look out.
6) Sun Titan, dislike this one. Heavily printed as a promo and now in two core sets.
7) Innistrad duals, good pick ups. Almost can't lose if you are looking out to Fall Standard and beyond.
8) M12 duals, printed too often, dislike this.
As for your core trading principles, they are all quite reactionary. Selling because a card has spike might be a mistake, because it might be going higher. It's better to take a step back and see why that card has spiked. If it's for no apparent reason, and I mean no trace of an increase in playability in any format, then go ahead and sell. If it has increased playability, it might just be the start of a move higher.
The second rule and third rule combined will work against you in the end. It's good to be invested, but sometimes there are no good opportunities around, and always moving from tix into cards will ensure you pickup some mistakes. With your third principle, more and more of your capital will be tied up in mistakes as you wait for a profit that might never materialize.
I'd suggest wait for the best opportunities (often to do with set rotation and timing of releases) and definitely understand that when you have made a mistake it's best to salvage some tix and find better opportunities.
For a primer on how I think about speculation, check my article out. The first half might not be of much use as it is a primer on the economics of modo, but the second half goes over how I look for value online.
I'd pick these up and wait a year until redemption deadlines hit. I've got 13 right now and refuse to sell. I think they'll hit $20+ at some point next year. I'm willing to wait.
How long term are you looking in you speculation strategy? Right now my favorite spec pick is Mikaus the Unhallowed, but I think the long game is the way to go with him. He is a sure fire casual and Commander staple mythic from what will be a underdrafted set. You can get them for about 3 tix now and I think once the supply dries up he will become a 6-9 tix card. It may take some time though.
sorry, I can't get past why someone would take a profile pic with their shirt off for a magic site
...lol
I'll put down 10 tix on goyf not being reprinted in m13, cool?
Investing in big-block rares (not mythics) is generally a turble turble plan. Niche rares such as Geist (powerful, but still only borderline playable atm) and Geralf's Messenger (too much Black in the cost) are turble investments unless you're going to resell with every spike.
For the long game, you want cheap mythics and universally playable rares/uncs. Lingering souls might be okay, Snappy is probably fine (since even though it's a big-block rare, it's universally playable), and gravecrawler might be a decent guess.
Inn duals are okay but I wouldn't hang onto them after they spike post-rotation to avoid risking duals being printed in m13 that outclass them (or just are them).
You fell into a trap that I fall into frequently: are you aggro or control with that deck? You drafted too many aggressive cards (think the shadow duder or even considering Isamaru) across three colors and multiple WW/BB/etc type cards. I think that taking the Precursor Golem pick 2 would have helped you stay more open instead of committing to an okay BB card. Then when Jace comes you can build around him (which is why brainstorm was fine, because you want to find the best card in the format!), and you can build either a WU aggro/tempo deck or a UBw control deck.
That said, it was still interesting.
Good work.
You can make tix off the bot price spread, but at 2 tix an hour (at most), is that really a good use of your time? Just stay 15 minutes longer at work, you'll make more money.
(the excitement of beating the system is higher trading back and forth on bots, I'll give you that)
I reply to you here quite randomly re: the speculation project, just to say: my comment last week was implicitly intended to say that you can succesfully (no skill, no luck involved) speculate over the bot spread, as I did, if you have a lot of patience, some time, and don't mind to make only tiny, tiny crumbs of tix. You can test that to verify it's true, but I assure you it's true.
What you are doing, instead, I would be very uncomfortable with, because it's really the same thing as predicting the stock market based on "how smart I am at seeing where the big business are" and/or "what my smartass friends tell me to invest into". It also reminds me of someone who's trying to test how much money you can make by betting on horse races. It's never a science, it's just a combination of acumen and luck.
The reason why there were so many anecdotes in the comments is because most of those aren't repeatable. I bought Elesh for 2. That was just luck. I bought her because I liked her, not because I was thinking, "wow, that's an investment, I can see this card going as up as 30 next year". It just taught me to not wait too long before buying the Mythics I like to have in my collection. But I'm not more able to predict the market now. Nobody really is, they're just all shots in the dark in the end, even when supported by some serious reasoning. It's just a matter of greater or lesser probability of being a winning horse.
Interesting buying decisions. I mentioned previously I think speculation is luck based, so I won't repeat myself, but I did have a suggestion. Because you are splitting your investment between all types of cards, might I suggest listing the Price to Earnings Ratio for each investment?
The reason I would never personally invest in Goyfs for speculation is they have to make an extremely large gain relative to other cards, which seems unlikely. A 20 ticket card has to go up 10 tickets to yield the same P/E ratio as a 10 ticket card going up 5. Even though I don't personally think it is going anywhere, I would sooner invest in 5 Vorapede than 1 Sorin for this reason. It seems more likely to me that Vorapede goes to 8 than Sorin hits roughly 40 tickets, although both are possible.
I like your methodology for the most part, it seems well thought out. Keep writing the best articles on modo.
I plan to hit all 5 Elder Dragons. The Bolas deck is next, but is proving tougher than expected. I definitely will hit Chromium though.
The speculation portion is a great add to your series. I'm not sold on all your investment choices but some are certainly smart choices. DKA mythics are excellent choices, as are some of the big standard uncommons. Craig Wescoe wrote a pretty nice article on buying up uncommons on brainburstdotcom, definetly worth checking out.
Purchase price was 300 TIX.
I'll publish the inventory table (card, set, number, purchase price, current price, net) about once a month, plus info on sales and new acquisitions.
I deliberately ignored the //buy/sell spread, along with the discount you can get if you buy in the marketplace, hang out in Auction, or shop BOTs. All of these will get you cards for less than the retail price, but all of these require you to invest time and effort. That's another debate. I realize the buy/sell difference is probably larger, but I'm just testing the concept that you can profit by investing in certain cards. I'm trying to hold the other variables constant.
That said, if Goyf jumps 3 TIX, I'm not going to claim I made a profit.
Each time you publish your investment portfolio of cards, you should put the total value so we can see how your entire portfolio is doing. Some speculators like to brag about their gains while hiding their losses, which is you know, illegal in real-world investing.
a couple people mentioned buying a high-priced, volatile card like Goyf and riding it up. So I'm trying it. Just one copy.
I bought only the really low priced Mythics that might have a chance of jumping. Agree that the this is not the time to by the costly ones.
I wanted to try one Titan. Right now, Primeval is high, and grave and Inferno seem to be at the tops of thier cycles. Av. erstored seems like it might have some decent white, so I'm betting on a UW control deck wanting Sun Titan. It is also about half the price it was at a few months ago, so i think the promo issue is past.
The duals are really cheap, played in Modern, and will almost certainly not be reprinted again, which will drive them up over time.
I agree with most of what you say, but I want pretty restrictive rules, otherwise the debate will degenerate into whether I sodl out at the right time, or took a loss too early, etc. I'll probably hae to revise that - maybe have a periodic poll on whether I should cash in certain losses. We have some time to figure that out.
I don't agree with your assessment of WHY Voropede is the card to watch. But that said I am no pro and certainly no merchant. So I take my own opinion with a grain of salt. On to the thing you said that does jibe with my own thoughts (aside from the obviousness that is snapcaster) Mox Opal is certainly a staple now for any deck that has easy metalcraft. Unfortunately it is pricy enough that people would rather just stick to the moxen that are more readily available. Maybe when SOM cycles the price will drop a little but I doubt it. As you indicate it will probably remain stable or raise.
In Re: Lingering Souls/Intangible Virtue this was clearly a popularity ban rather than a broken beyond belief ban. Same reasoning as Mystic and Jace 2. People were including these cards in every deck pretty much and those who weren't were vocal about how much they disliked seeing them everywhere. Being ubiquitous is enough to earn a ban these days I guess. And tokens will still be popular even without the flagships because the theme is so imbedded in the sets. Too bad for ISD block because there are plenty of other interesting possibilities that will be ignored because Hellriders + tokens is just awesomeness waiting to happen.
Oh man, I have the Vorapede argument every damn time I play paper. Nobody believes me. I think, and keep your laughing down, that:
Vorapede > Thrun.
On a long term curve here, Vorapede is nasty, and Wizards announced that they want to lower the power level of creatures to go down. (Read anything that R&D has mentioned recently in interviews). That is why we are pretty much guaranteed that Titans aren't being reprinted. Vorapede takes 2 removal spells to kill. And very few decks can deal with that late game. That is why it is run in my Ramp Deck. Not to mention if you clone it, the clone gains undying. I think it is overlooked and will be a green staple. I know, Thrun is 4/4 for 4 mana, hexproof, amazing, etc.. But Vorapede is nasty.
When it comes to Snappy, he can actually be used the way he is supposed to be used. With no Flashback in Avacyn Restored, there might be some badass things to flash back with the once Format Dominating Snappy the Snapcasting Mage.
Oh and speculative note, which this is about, how about you put Mox Opal on the "future buy list" and buy it when SOM is cycling out. I think it will be one of the few cards from SOM that have lasting appeal.
**I'm confused. When SOM block was around, Tezzeret was owning the format. It was winning every tournament, and they didn't ban that. So why make bans in ISD block when you didn't do the same in SOM block? It isn't like Intangible Virtue and Lingering Souls were the greatest card in the deck. It just makes Curse of Death's hold that much better. That means that BW decks will just change to BWg, and there will still be RW. Although I doubt Werewolves will catch on.
- Smart choice with Isolated Chapel. Sulfur Falls was once the #1 land, now it's one of the cheapest in paper. It is still the best land though.
***I am taking 3-1 odds that Goyf is being reprinted in M13.
Thanks Paul! Good to see you're still around Magic, and Pure.
My investments for the future:
INN Duals
Lingering Souls
Gravecrawler
Geralf's Messenger
Dungeon Geist
Snapcaster Mage
For the duals, I've been investing in the blue ones, Sulfur Falls and Hinterland Harbor. If we look at the SOM Block duals, the blues saw the greatest increase in price. I see these as pretty low risk specs. It is very doubtful that WOTC is going to print another set of enemy duals, which is only the real thing that I see as keeping the price from reaching 3-5 tix each.
Lingering Souls is obviously a very powerful card and I think it is a steal at the ~.5 tix it's been going for. This speculation is a bit risky since it was just banned in Block, so perhaps WOTC is beginning to regret printing this card and will, when SOM Block rotates, likewise ban Lingering Souls in standard. This card won the recent Legacy GP and I wouldn't be surprised if it became a player in Modern. If it is banned in Standard I still think it will go up in the long run.
Gravecrawler/Geralf's Messenger -- Zombies is one of the top decks now and I see no reason that it won't remain so once SOM Block rotates.
Dungeon Geist -- Same as above. Though it has fallen out of favor, once Corrosive Gale rotates this could certainly be a major deck.
Snapcaster Mage -- The most difficult to properly examine. I am incredibly curious to see where he ends up by this time next year. It takes quite a lot for a rare to break the 10 dollar mark, much less hit the 15 or so some people might expect out of a card this powerful. Stoneforge Mystic was over 15 but was in Worldwake, the equivalent of DKA which had a much shorter draft-time than INN. Likewise, Birthing Pod hit 13 last year in a set with an even shorter draft-time than INN or WW. I'm pretty sure that Snapcaster Mage will go up. That being said, I would be incredibly surprised if he broke the 15 tix mark. Stoneforge Mystic and Birthing Pod were both pretty dominant during their price hike. Snapcaster Mage, on the other hand, sees play in a plethora of different decks, from control to Delver, but, unlike SM or BP, is not a signature card in either of those decks. He provides value, but is not a role-player.
I'd be very curious to see what people have to say on this Snapcaster Mage matter.
Welcome back Splendid! Good to see you are still funny and still enjoying magic. :D
Beatles + Moody Blues ftw! :D Old geezers strike back!
Reading is fundamental
'Hard Satin' arose from a conversation 'twixt Blippy and myself. I was pondering either calling he deck 'in white satin' or 'a hard day's', and Blippy suggested the compromise, to which I replied with the comment attributed to my deck.
Pete-
I really like what you've started here and the comments. I think it would make a whole column and could be a great educational piece for young investors who 'get Magic' but not the stock market, as much of the dicussions seems to be applying commodity lessons to MTGO.
Out of curiosity, how much did you invest? I might try and put a similiar amount down in a different strategy and compare notes periodically on value, timing and lessons learned. There are probably some others who'd do the same. I have an account which is mostly empty which I could use just for this project.
Again, thanks for your work.
I will comment on your picks.
1) Tarmgoyf, this seems strange as you had just finished talking about how you wouldn't buy into modern. And your first pick is a modern staple. This one seems a mistake.
2) Onslaught fetchlands, I like this one, nice long term pick up at good prices, as long as they are not bloodstained mire, the least played and it was printed as a promo.
3) DA mythics, I like this, but the timing seems wrong. 4-5 weeks out, prices will probably be lower.
4) Random DA rares, cheap is fine, and can be worth a gamble, but not my favorite strategy due to high transaction costs.
5) Past in Flames, yep, a good pick up. I think most INN mythics will hold value in the coming year, and this one is Modern playable. If it breaks in Standard, look out.
6) Sun Titan, dislike this one. Heavily printed as a promo and now in two core sets.
7) Innistrad duals, good pick ups. Almost can't lose if you are looking out to Fall Standard and beyond.
8) M12 duals, printed too often, dislike this.
As for your core trading principles, they are all quite reactionary. Selling because a card has spike might be a mistake, because it might be going higher. It's better to take a step back and see why that card has spiked. If it's for no apparent reason, and I mean no trace of an increase in playability in any format, then go ahead and sell. If it has increased playability, it might just be the start of a move higher.
The second rule and third rule combined will work against you in the end. It's good to be invested, but sometimes there are no good opportunities around, and always moving from tix into cards will ensure you pickup some mistakes. With your third principle, more and more of your capital will be tied up in mistakes as you wait for a profit that might never materialize.
I'd suggest wait for the best opportunities (often to do with set rotation and timing of releases) and definitely understand that when you have made a mistake it's best to salvage some tix and find better opportunities.
For a primer on how I think about speculation, check my article out. The first half might not be of much use as it is a primer on the economics of modo, but the second half goes over how I look for value online.
http://tinyurl.com/42lez9y
I'd pick these up and wait a year until redemption deadlines hit. I've got 13 right now and refuse to sell. I think they'll hit $20+ at some point next year. I'm willing to wait.
How long term are you looking in you speculation strategy? Right now my favorite spec pick is Mikaus the Unhallowed, but I think the long game is the way to go with him. He is a sure fire casual and Commander staple mythic from what will be a underdrafted set. You can get them for about 3 tix now and I think once the supply dries up he will become a 6-9 tix card. It may take some time though.