Null rod can certainly be a powerful tool. Its biggest downside is the price. Unless you already happen to have one, I doubt most people are willing to shell out that much for such a narrow, all be it powerful card.
Anyway it is interesting to see all the cards you have used laid out like this. It is half "why hasn't he ever used X, it is one of my favorites", and half "Oh that is a cool card, I should try that".
It also struck me just how much I fiddle around with red decks. In all the other colors you have used way more cards then me. On the red stuff though, I have tried twice the things you have.
Deck looks interesting, you weren't tempted by Naya panroama? Also re the decision to keep your land in hand to guard against discount, when I'm in topdeck mode vs black decks I tend to play everything out even surplus land because otherwise they can chittering rats to set you back. I guess it depends if you think you're racing them or not, but you could basically play anything you drew by that stage (even if you wouldn't get much profit out of the torch) so you didn't have that much to protect.
Also with the popularity stats, why not just express them as % rather than raw numbers? that automatically normalises it all for you.
Thanks guys. Eternal Dominion is the only Epic spell that I have tried. I only cast it once and that time I had great success with it. Now, obviously how I feel about the spell is colored by how that game went. It's entirely possible that if I played it 5 more times each time I would be hamstrung by the limitations of being an Epic spell. Is it the best? No, of course not. But can it be fun? The one time I used it it was!
Null Rod is a great suggestion, I will definitely give it a shot soon! Thanks again for the comments guys, it took a while longer than I thought it would to assemble these lists.
I do appreciate this comment. Let me explain this part... I'm not a math person. I'm a professional writer. I'm very good at math, but I've never learned much about math.
What I'm doing in this article is pretty simple math, as you probably noticed. However, I am currently working my way through learning some stuff about statistics on my own. You'll see extra things popping up in this article as I learn more about how to do the math.
So... expect standard deviation at some point! Not sure when I'll figure that out though :)
No planechase for me, I don't even know what it is really. Good luck with the planning, it may sound cheesy but the day I was married was the best day of my life. You will do fine. Thanks for helping me with my laundry.
Thanks for the feedback! You make a fair point regarding the Thallid vs. Sentinel discard. My thinking at the time was to have the one Sentinel that could do big damage as opposed to two doing a bit less. Playing the deck you get used to this idea that you only need to keep one alive to win and as long as you're hitting creature drops you're doing more damage each turn.
As far as the Thallid comment it wasn't meant specifically about that particular game. While its an admittedly awful win-con in this deck, it does have that potential if you REALLY have to.
really enjoyed the lists ... there is an artifact card I didn't see on your list that I have just discovered to be an apparent all-star in Commander. You should give Null Rod a try. In the 3 games I have played it; it has really killed many shennanigans. It shut down a Sharuum deck. It is also great at shutting down fast artifact mana, Sen. Div. Top, and equipment. What a gem!
Looking at your third game I think it's a mistake to pitch the Vent Sentinel instead of the Thallid to the second Raven's Crime. You lose out on two damage the following turn, but if you fail to draw creatures you're dealing 4 damage a turn instead of 2. Even if you continue to draw creatures like you did in the game you're only behind two damage from the game state you chose and if you ever miss a creature drop and hit lands you're suddenly dealing twice as much damage per turn while remaining more of a threat if one of them gets removed.
You spoke briefly about needing an alternate win condition against a potentially removal heavy deck, but Thallid isn't going to be a win condition against a blue black control deck...generally they simply have too much card advantage (had it been a red deck with lots of removal I'd be more inclined to agree since they tend to have less card advantage and their removal tends to have difficulties with x/5 bodies). Between Mulldrifters and Ragers a 1/1 every three turns isn't going to get there which further reinforces why I dislike your line of play.
I haven't played with the deck so maybe I'm missing something, but I was just curious if you still thought your line of play was best..
On a side note, I always read your articles and seldom comment. Keep up the good work.
The article is really really good. Great job and very interesting (it incites me to do the same exercice, but i should be too lazy).
The almost only point I disagree with is that I really dislike epic spell in commander. To me it is very boring to play with or to deal with. But that's a detail on the huge amount of opinion / details provided here. Waiting the next article of the serie.
No. No planechase. I stopped playing paper m:tg before Planechase was invented though I will say I played a similar style game of chaos using an effects deck at PT NY in 2001 with K. Hahn (5c inventor) and a bunch of Colorado players. Seemed fun* though it was a total blow out and the decks we used were not designed for chaos or any multiplayer game.
I have some worries that the format might be a little hard to get used to since it is essentially adding another random element to an already somewhat random game. I mean I hate Momir so if PC is like Momir with huge swingy dicerolls I might find it too annoying to play. And if the 2ndary market for the planes isn't strong it could be a one-way purchase.
(*I mean it seemed like it would be fun with decks designed to handle the multiplayer and events aspects.)
Game theory in action, it's great :). It's funny that your data analysis effectively disproves itself after it becomes known (not necessarily because people have read the article, but because they've figured it out for themselves). I think it's highly interesting that black went from being in all of the bottom card combinations to being in a majority of the >50% winning ones. I'm sure there's a few reasons for this, from the obvious (bad rep -> underdrafted -> the average quality of black cards available to any particular drafter is higher) to the simple fact that a lot of its interractions and card values aren't immediately apparent so it's a colour that took a while to learn. Plus of course, black's the answer to the "where's the removal in this set" question and so I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of these decks are basically splashing black for removal (although the nature of bone splinters does ask you to put a bit more effort into the colour than straight out removal might).
I always assumed that formats were self correcting, but sometimes I wondered whether that was truly the case. But this data really seems to suggest that it is the case. We go from having one deck that is way more powerful than anything else in the format, to a format that is well balanced.
So I guess that Wizard's theory that color power is self correcting, turns out to be true!
OK, crazy thought: A closed beta on MTGO before a set is released. R&D could collect a ton of data and sort out some issues, similar to how online games do. They have such a small sampling of players internally it must be difficult to get an overview. They might even need another Lee Sharpe to keep track of all this data... hmm?
Thanks for sharing this information. I really like your way of expressing the opinions and sharing the information. It is good to move as chance bring new things in life, paves the way for advancement, etc. But it is well known to everyone that moving to new location with bulk of goods is not an easy task to move or shift from one place to other place because I have experienced about that and I face the problem like that. There I go to village near to my city faced that problem there.ibm DB2//SCJP//JNCIA//CompTIA Security+//CompTIA Network+
Excellent post. I want to thank you for this informative read, I really appreciate sharing this great post. Keep up your work. Thanks for this very useful info you have provided us.CCIE//CompTIA A+//CompTIA Linux+//CompTIA Project+//Oracle 11i
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Thanks for sharing this information. I really like your way of expressing the opinions and sharing the information. It is good to move as chance bring new things in life, paves the way for advancement, etc. But it is well known to everyone that moving to new location with bulk of goods is not an easy task to move or shift from one place to other place because I have experienced about that and I face the problem like that. There I go to village near to my city faced that problem there.vmware certification//ISC2//photoshop certification//sas certification//CCNP
Hmmm. This is actually a fascinating idea. I mean, if I put together an article on a nix tix format, it would be out of date by the time it was released, but it would be useful for people the next time the format comes around... I think I'll definitely keep that in mind.
Not a drafter of AVR or really any of the modern sets past Shards but I appreciate the logic and work that goes into an article like this. Glad to hear you are going to make a habit of it. :) I am curious what you have to say concerning IDA.
But last I checked 49% to 64% was a 15% increase ...not 25, still a large increase, but as you touched on there are probably better pilots with it now as "pros" know that UG is going to be heavily contested
No need to downgrade.
"Cards will be distributed during the downtime on Wednesday, July 11, and players will receive cards for each level they have qualified for"
Null rod can certainly be a powerful tool. Its biggest downside is the price. Unless you already happen to have one, I doubt most people are willing to shell out that much for such a narrow, all be it powerful card.
Anyway it is interesting to see all the cards you have used laid out like this. It is half "why hasn't he ever used X, it is one of my favorites", and half "Oh that is a cool card, I should try that".
It also struck me just how much I fiddle around with red decks. In all the other colors you have used way more cards then me. On the red stuff though, I have tried twice the things you have.
Deck looks interesting, you weren't tempted by Naya panroama? Also re the decision to keep your land in hand to guard against discount, when I'm in topdeck mode vs black decks I tend to play everything out even surplus land because otherwise they can chittering rats to set you back. I guess it depends if you think you're racing them or not, but you could basically play anything you drew by that stage (even if you wouldn't get much profit out of the torch) so you didn't have that much to protect.
Also with the popularity stats, why not just express them as % rather than raw numbers? that automatically normalises it all for you.
Thanks guys. Eternal Dominion is the only Epic spell that I have tried. I only cast it once and that time I had great success with it. Now, obviously how I feel about the spell is colored by how that game went. It's entirely possible that if I played it 5 more times each time I would be hamstrung by the limitations of being an Epic spell. Is it the best? No, of course not. But can it be fun? The one time I used it it was!
Null Rod is a great suggestion, I will definitely give it a shot soon! Thanks again for the comments guys, it took a while longer than I thought it would to assemble these lists.
I do appreciate this comment. Let me explain this part... I'm not a math person. I'm a professional writer. I'm very good at math, but I've never learned much about math.
What I'm doing in this article is pretty simple math, as you probably noticed. However, I am currently working my way through learning some stuff about statistics on my own. You'll see extra things popping up in this article as I learn more about how to do the math.
So... expect standard deviation at some point! Not sure when I'll figure that out though :)
No planechase for me, I don't even know what it is really. Good luck with the planning, it may sound cheesy but the day I was married was the best day of my life. You will do fine. Thanks for helping me with my laundry.
Thanks for the feedback! You make a fair point regarding the Thallid vs. Sentinel discard. My thinking at the time was to have the one Sentinel that could do big damage as opposed to two doing a bit less. Playing the deck you get used to this idea that you only need to keep one alive to win and as long as you're hitting creature drops you're doing more damage each turn.
As far as the Thallid comment it wasn't meant specifically about that particular game. While its an admittedly awful win-con in this deck, it does have that potential if you REALLY have to.
really enjoyed the lists ... there is an artifact card I didn't see on your list that I have just discovered to be an apparent all-star in Commander. You should give Null Rod a try. In the 3 games I have played it; it has really killed many shennanigans. It shut down a Sharuum deck. It is also great at shutting down fast artifact mana, Sen. Div. Top, and equipment. What a gem!
Looking at your third game I think it's a mistake to pitch the Vent Sentinel instead of the Thallid to the second Raven's Crime. You lose out on two damage the following turn, but if you fail to draw creatures you're dealing 4 damage a turn instead of 2. Even if you continue to draw creatures like you did in the game you're only behind two damage from the game state you chose and if you ever miss a creature drop and hit lands you're suddenly dealing twice as much damage per turn while remaining more of a threat if one of them gets removed.
You spoke briefly about needing an alternate win condition against a potentially removal heavy deck, but Thallid isn't going to be a win condition against a blue black control deck...generally they simply have too much card advantage (had it been a red deck with lots of removal I'd be more inclined to agree since they tend to have less card advantage and their removal tends to have difficulties with x/5 bodies). Between Mulldrifters and Ragers a 1/1 every three turns isn't going to get there which further reinforces why I dislike your line of play.
I haven't played with the deck so maybe I'm missing something, but I was just curious if you still thought your line of play was best..
On a side note, I always read your articles and seldom comment. Keep up the good work.
The article is really really good. Great job and very interesting (it incites me to do the same exercice, but i should be too lazy).
The almost only point I disagree with is that I really dislike epic spell in commander. To me it is very boring to play with or to deal with. But that's a detail on the huge amount of opinion / details provided here. Waiting the next article of the serie.
So great to see real numbers. It's like science!
Suggestion for next time: Include error bars (standard deviation).
No. No planechase. I stopped playing paper m:tg before Planechase was invented though I will say I played a similar style game of chaos using an effects deck at PT NY in 2001 with K. Hahn (5c inventor) and a bunch of Colorado players. Seemed fun* though it was a total blow out and the decks we used were not designed for chaos or any multiplayer game.
I have some worries that the format might be a little hard to get used to since it is essentially adding another random element to an already somewhat random game. I mean I hate Momir so if PC is like Momir with huge swingy dicerolls I might find it too annoying to play. And if the 2ndary market for the planes isn't strong it could be a one-way purchase.
(*I mean it seemed like it would be fun with decks designed to handle the multiplayer and events aspects.)
Game theory in action, it's great :). It's funny that your data analysis effectively disproves itself after it becomes known (not necessarily because people have read the article, but because they've figured it out for themselves). I think it's highly interesting that black went from being in all of the bottom card combinations to being in a majority of the >50% winning ones. I'm sure there's a few reasons for this, from the obvious (bad rep -> underdrafted -> the average quality of black cards available to any particular drafter is higher) to the simple fact that a lot of its interractions and card values aren't immediately apparent so it's a colour that took a while to learn. Plus of course, black's the answer to the "where's the removal in this set" question and so I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of these decks are basically splashing black for removal (although the nature of bone splinters does ask you to put a bit more effort into the colour than straight out removal might).
Interesting stats whichever way you cut them!
I always assumed that formats were self correcting, but sometimes I wondered whether that was truly the case. But this data really seems to suggest that it is the case. We go from having one deck that is way more powerful than anything else in the format, to a format that is well balanced.
Whodathunk!
I would like to report this as spam. *points finger at dark silhouette*
So I guess that Wizard's theory that color power is self correcting, turns out to be true!
OK, crazy thought: A closed beta on MTGO before a set is released. R&D could collect a ton of data and sort out some issues, similar to how online games do. They have such a small sampling of players internally it must be difficult to get an overview. They might even need another Lee Sharpe to keep track of all this data... hmm?
I know, I am insane.
Thanks for the great content!
Thanks for sharing this information. I really like your way of expressing the opinions and sharing the information. It is good to move as chance bring new things in life, paves the way for advancement, etc. But it is well known to everyone that moving to new location with bulk of goods is not an easy task to move or shift from one place to other place because I have experienced about that and I face the problem like that. There I go to village near to my city faced that problem there.ibm DB2//SCJP//JNCIA//CompTIA Security+//CompTIA Network+
Excellent post. I want to thank you for this informative read, I really appreciate sharing this great post. Keep up your work. Thanks for this very useful info you have provided us.CCIE//CompTIA A+//CompTIA Linux+//CompTIA Project+//Oracle 11i
enjoying your post! I used to be more than happy to seek out this internet-site.I wanted to thanks in your time for this glorious read!! I positively enjoying each little bit of it and I have you bookmarked to check out new stuff you weblog post.CCNA//CCNP//CCNP//ibm certification//symantec certification
Thanks for sharing this information. I really like your way of expressing the opinions and sharing the information. It is good to move as chance bring new things in life, paves the way for advancement, etc. But it is well known to everyone that moving to new location with bulk of goods is not an easy task to move or shift from one place to other place because I have experienced about that and I face the problem like that. There I go to village near to my city faced that problem there.vmware certification//ISC2//photoshop certification//sas certification//CCNP
Hmmm. This is actually a fascinating idea. I mean, if I put together an article on a nix tix format, it would be out of date by the time it was released, but it would be useful for people the next time the format comes around... I think I'll definitely keep that in mind.
Not a drafter of AVR or really any of the modern sets past Shards but I appreciate the logic and work that goes into an article like this. Glad to hear you are going to make a habit of it. :) I am curious what you have to say concerning IDA.
Thanks for pointing that out! After doing a ton of math for three days straight, I guess I just missed that little bit there.
As you said, though, 15 points is a huge increase.
But last I checked 49% to 64% was a 15% increase ...not 25, still a large increase, but as you touched on there are probably better pilots with it now as "pros" know that UG is going to be heavily contested
Your brekdown of the draft series is quite nice with the grafts and such. I look forward to your future articles now that your a regular.