I just want to say something about estimating your EV that gets overlooked in nearly every article like this, but is crucial if you wish to play limited and sell your cards to sustain yourself.
Unless you are a bot or have a large amount of free time (and even then it's questionable), you cannot assume that you will be selling your cards at bots' sell prices. To be realistic you must account for the loss of being in the human selling position. I recommend multiplying the price of rares by .75 and mythics by .85, however it may be better to adjust mythics by some "minus 1-2 tix rule" instead of a flat scaling because that's more realistic (It doesn't make sense to cut 15% of a 30 dollar card because you may be able to sell it for only 1-2 tix less). Also, are you really going to sell any of the cards that are worth less than .5 tix? In my experience those tend to rot in your account forever, so leaving those out of the estimation is more accurate than pretending that 30 cards listed at .08 are going to contribute 2.4 tix to the average when they ultimately contribute nothing.
When you account for these things you see that to go infinite in the new 4 pack takes higher than the 64.7% you stated (I would be content with up to 66.7% if it were true!) at current prices and is likely to require over 66% for any set that is not anomalously high value for current-year sets.
If you want to get even more realistic you can record how often you win in each round and by queue type to estimate a more fitting EV. For example, you might discover that you win more early rounds than late rounds (very likely) or that you win more matches in swiss than in 84s. A much more realistic model of a swiss tournament would be something like 75% to win round 1, 65% to win round 2 undefeated, 55% to win round 3 against an opponent who is nearly as good as you.
tl;dr to the everyday player, don't assume that you can sell your cards for bots' listed sell prices. You will lose significant value.
That looks like a really interesting list. A burn deck with some bigger and more threatening creatures. Seems like a solid idea to me. I think your deck has a considerably different strategy to Gruul Zoo with the heavy emphasis on burn but it looks like a solid list.
I like the idea of using Vengevine. If the card wasn't so overpriced I would happily give it a go in this deck. It seems like a solid addition.
Myr Superion probably needs more support than just Burning-Tree Emissary. I think most decks running it also play something like Priest of Urabrask in order to cast it more consistently. I think this type of strategy is probably more suited to a Vengevine-based deck.
That's an interesting idea Blippy. I think Paul's probably right that you would need to tweak the manabase somewhat as you really only want the black mana activation of Deathrite - all going to plan at least. Overall, I'm not sure I want Deathrite enough to make it worth the changes you'd have to make. Really I'm not too keen on Lavamancer in the first place and wouldn't mind cutting it for something a little more impactful.
For awhile, I was trying a RG aggro list inspired by the old Dryad Sligh deck (which morphed into Goyf Sligh after TSP, and into contemporary Zoo after Alara.) After the Nacatl ban, I thought it seemed a logical thing to try. The idea was that I could cut the plains from Zoo, since Nacatl was out and I didn't really want KotR which was bad in the meta at that time, and have a more stable mana base. As Modern evolved, the white sideboard cards became very good and it was too limited. I also found that it was, as you suggest, kind of just a bad version of other aggro decks -- though I'm always more suited to an aggro deck with a solid amount of burn, which I had.
Anyhow, the list looked like this:
4 Stomping Ground
4 Verdant Catacombs
2 Scalding Tarn
4 Arid Mesa
6 Mountain
4 Lightning Bolt
3 Seal of Fire
2 Tarfire
4 Incinerate
4 Rift Bolt
4 Magma Jet
4 Lava Spike
I really like the potential of Burning-Tree Emissary to give the deck some added explosiveness. I think you could easily start with that sort of list, cut a few spells to make room for Emissaries, and maybe have a somewhat competitive list.
I am a big fan of Lavamancer in general, but I concede that he might not be in a great position right now. He absolutely tears up decks like Merfolk single-handed, but when most of the small threats are hexproof he's "just" a way to dome your opponent for 2 on a regular basis. That's nice but maybe not as good as other options.
Honestly your list looks alot like an older version of what Grapplingfarang was running in modern for a while. I talked to him for most of the evolution of the deck list he ran which ranged from Faithless Looting into Vengevine or Myr Superion both of which abuse Burning-Tree Emissary. Id work with either of those ideas first before using Grim Lavamancer main.
I'd be leery of replacing Grim Lavamancer with Deathspeaker Shaman for the simple reason that you don't always get to choose which mode Shaman will be in add that to the must have black mana and or green mana to operate and it changes the deck's play dynamic. Not saying it is wrong to do so but I'd want to fiddle with the mana structure too.
This thought has been kicking around in my head recently:
Why not splash B (You're already running Dismember), and run Deathrite Shaman instead of Grim Lavamancer?
Same 2 damage, plus lifegain, plus provisional mana dork, plus he's a 1/2 instead of a 1/1...
WOTC pretty much confirming what everyone knew in regards to the 4 booster sealed going away and now coming back. The EV for players was too good, they couldn't just change the entry fee/payout structure for no reason, so they take it away for a little while while offering a joke of a replacement, then bring it back and everyone rejoices. Nevermind the fact that they "altered" the entry fee/payout structure by making players pay 16 extra tix for 1 more pack.
Sorry if I sound bitter, I'm just still a bit irked about those bogus reasons they gave for taking away a very popular format in the first place, when I think it's pretty obvious what the one, singular reason was.
Also, Pete, FWIW I did 10-15 RTR 4 booster sealeds before they took it away and I didn't notice anything special about mill. Certainly wasn't "stupid good".
I very much like you because of the style of your play, decks, and card collecting, because in that way I am similar to you. That RPG element you mentioned (you get cards only by winning, and so you get stronger and stronger) describes my gameplay too. The only difference is that you are ahead of me by a year or two, and so you have bigger and stronger card pool. And because of that, you usually win against me, and since I hate losing (especielly when there is clearly a price difference in the decks, to the oppoments' favor), in the end that symphaty quickly disappears every time. I'm sorry about that, but that's how I feel.
I played poker too, but it's not my game. I can't stand losing, and I get mad quickly, which isn't healthy in that game. Magic is quite same too, and is not always equal either (because of prices of decks) like poker, but with PRE's there is nothing to lose.
Re: ranking, I think you answered yourself: how would be fair to be already automatically qualified for the Invitational by mid-March? But rest assured that nobody will be qualified without going undefeated several times, so the 2 points to a guy who ended 1-3 are just a consolation. If anything, it's more success-based now. The old system for 2013 showed a definite point creep (was actually very ill-devised), since any 3-1 score would give you 50 points vs. 100 points to the winner. Now it's 6 vs. 18.
Other things the 2 points to match system do are:
- reward participation and long-term fidelity
- push players to play all the rounds rather than drop
- make me have a (more or less) complete list of everyone who played
- one that I realized just now and I love: now you can use decks that just aim at scoring 2-4 points. Of course, that's far from the top decks that do 16 or 18, but still a little something. You can have fun without ending into complete oblivion.
I think that the planeswalkers are fine, except for Gideon. He doesn't really advance your goals, so I would take him out. I would also take out a bunch of the single use blink effects (Flicker, Liberate). Or if you like them, at least attach them to a body, like Flickerwisp and Glimmerpoint Stag.
Mirrorweave seems cool, but it doesn't really fit the point of the deck. I would cut that. Cache Raiders' ability is mandatory, I don't like that as well, so you can probably cut it.
I'm not a huge fan of Detention Sphere and Oblivion Stone in Commander. I understand what you're trying to do (blink it out when something worse comes along to stick under it) but plain removal is typically better. You don't want to have it blown up at the wrong time and have that bad thing come back when you least want it.
I think the tax to attack effects are fine. But cutting down on the blinking is probably going to serve you best. You don't want to be stuck with a bunch of blink effects in hand, but nothing to blink. Looking for value in your ETB dudes is really where it's at.
Other than that it's just play testing really. Hope this helps.
As you can see, there a lot of new things around us. Just like in the games, now, the modern time has a lot of progress not like before. - Michael Courouleau
I'll have to wait and see what the current year's standings look like once they're posted, but I'm a little concerned that 2 pts for a match win is going to turn this event into a bit more of a grind. I'm a bit biased, since under the old system I would have had enough points to qualify for the Invitational just with what I'd done by mid-March.
I agreed with almost everything mihahitlor said about the state of the format and player's attitudes towards deck choices, different budgets, and so on. I wasn't really a fan of playing against 3 Goblin decks in a row this week, solely because I didn't think I got a full tournament experience that way. But that was bad luck to face 3 in a row out of 6 total. I want to see variety (if for no other reason than to find something to make videos about) but guess what? In 15 consecutive weeks of doing this Show&Tell series, I've never failed to find at least 2-3 decks that I liked and wanted to talk about, that brought something new and cool to the PRE. So I think on the whole we're doing fine in that area.
I haven't played any games yet since I'm still missing a few cards that ill trade for at the pre release. I think I would like land tax the best as one activation would set me up for 3 more land drops. I had a mindstone in there as ramp/draw but cut it for gilded drake. What would u suggest cutting for thes e changes? I'm guess shave down the flicker bounce affetcs? Or maybe I lose some walkers and some of the tax to attacks?
Good to see your nice graphs get published here.
I just want to say something about estimating your EV that gets overlooked in nearly every article like this, but is crucial if you wish to play limited and sell your cards to sustain yourself.
Unless you are a bot or have a large amount of free time (and even then it's questionable), you cannot assume that you will be selling your cards at bots' sell prices. To be realistic you must account for the loss of being in the human selling position. I recommend multiplying the price of rares by .75 and mythics by .85, however it may be better to adjust mythics by some "minus 1-2 tix rule" instead of a flat scaling because that's more realistic (It doesn't make sense to cut 15% of a 30 dollar card because you may be able to sell it for only 1-2 tix less). Also, are you really going to sell any of the cards that are worth less than .5 tix? In my experience those tend to rot in your account forever, so leaving those out of the estimation is more accurate than pretending that 30 cards listed at .08 are going to contribute 2.4 tix to the average when they ultimately contribute nothing.
When you account for these things you see that to go infinite in the new 4 pack takes higher than the 64.7% you stated (I would be content with up to 66.7% if it were true!) at current prices and is likely to require over 66% for any set that is not anomalously high value for current-year sets.
If you want to get even more realistic you can record how often you win in each round and by queue type to estimate a more fitting EV. For example, you might discover that you win more early rounds than late rounds (very likely) or that you win more matches in swiss than in 84s. A much more realistic model of a swiss tournament would be something like 75% to win round 1, 65% to win round 2 undefeated, 55% to win round 3 against an opponent who is nearly as good as you.
tl;dr to the everyday player, don't assume that you can sell your cards for bots' listed sell prices. You will lose significant value.
This isn't really my territory because fast aggro is gross to me, but didn't the Standard version of this use Domri Rade? It seems his kind of deck.
That looks like a really interesting list. A burn deck with some bigger and more threatening creatures. Seems like a solid idea to me. I think your deck has a considerably different strategy to Gruul Zoo with the heavy emphasis on burn but it looks like a solid list.
I like the idea of using Vengevine. If the card wasn't so overpriced I would happily give it a go in this deck. It seems like a solid addition.
Myr Superion probably needs more support than just Burning-Tree Emissary. I think most decks running it also play something like Priest of Urabrask in order to cast it more consistently. I think this type of strategy is probably more suited to a Vengevine-based deck.
That's an interesting idea Blippy. I think Paul's probably right that you would need to tweak the manabase somewhat as you really only want the black mana activation of Deathrite - all going to plan at least. Overall, I'm not sure I want Deathrite enough to make it worth the changes you'd have to make. Really I'm not too keen on Lavamancer in the first place and wouldn't mind cutting it for something a little more impactful.
For awhile, I was trying a RG aggro list inspired by the old Dryad Sligh deck (which morphed into Goyf Sligh after TSP, and into contemporary Zoo after Alara.) After the Nacatl ban, I thought it seemed a logical thing to try. The idea was that I could cut the plains from Zoo, since Nacatl was out and I didn't really want KotR which was bad in the meta at that time, and have a more stable mana base. As Modern evolved, the white sideboard cards became very good and it was too limited. I also found that it was, as you suggest, kind of just a bad version of other aggro decks -- though I'm always more suited to an aggro deck with a solid amount of burn, which I had.
Anyhow, the list looked like this:
4 Stomping Ground
4 Verdant Catacombs
2 Scalding Tarn
4 Arid Mesa
6 Mountain
4 Tarmogoyf
3 Grim Lavamancer
4 Quirion Dryad
4 Kird Ape
4 Lightning Bolt
3 Seal of Fire
2 Tarfire
4 Incinerate
4 Rift Bolt
4 Magma Jet
4 Lava Spike
I really like the potential of Burning-Tree Emissary to give the deck some added explosiveness. I think you could easily start with that sort of list, cut a few spells to make room for Emissaries, and maybe have a somewhat competitive list.
I am a big fan of Lavamancer in general, but I concede that he might not be in a great position right now. He absolutely tears up decks like Merfolk single-handed, but when most of the small threats are hexproof he's "just" a way to dome your opponent for 2 on a regular basis. That's nice but maybe not as good as other options.
Honestly your list looks alot like an older version of what Grapplingfarang was running in modern for a while. I talked to him for most of the evolution of the deck list he ran which ranged from Faithless Looting into Vengevine or Myr Superion both of which abuse Burning-Tree Emissary. Id work with either of those ideas first before using Grim Lavamancer main.
I'd be leery of replacing Grim Lavamancer with Deathspeaker Shaman for the simple reason that you don't always get to choose which mode Shaman will be in add that to the must have black mana and or green mana to operate and it changes the deck's play dynamic. Not saying it is wrong to do so but I'd want to fiddle with the mana structure too.
This thought has been kicking around in my head recently:
Why not splash B (You're already running Dismember), and run Deathrite Shaman instead of Grim Lavamancer?
Same 2 damage, plus lifegain, plus provisional mana dork, plus he's a 1/2 instead of a 1/1...
I think he meant to say GTC mill, not RTR mill.
WOTC pretty much confirming what everyone knew in regards to the 4 booster sealed going away and now coming back. The EV for players was too good, they couldn't just change the entry fee/payout structure for no reason, so they take it away for a little while while offering a joke of a replacement, then bring it back and everyone rejoices. Nevermind the fact that they "altered" the entry fee/payout structure by making players pay 16 extra tix for 1 more pack.
Sorry if I sound bitter, I'm just still a bit irked about those bogus reasons they gave for taking away a very popular format in the first place, when I think it's pretty obvious what the one, singular reason was.
Also, Pete, FWIW I did 10-15 RTR 4 booster sealeds before they took it away and I didn't notice anything special about mill. Certainly wasn't "stupid good".
Re the facebook comment: It's the MTGO beta client (which I highly recommend). I use the "gruul" skin in it atm.
The odd thing is there are some very common decks out there that win that are not expensive. They just need a good pilot and some luck with matchups.
I very much like you because of the style of your play, decks, and card collecting, because in that way I am similar to you. That RPG element you mentioned (you get cards only by winning, and so you get stronger and stronger) describes my gameplay too. The only difference is that you are ahead of me by a year or two, and so you have bigger and stronger card pool. And because of that, you usually win against me, and since I hate losing (especielly when there is clearly a price difference in the decks, to the oppoments' favor), in the end that symphaty quickly disappears every time. I'm sorry about that, but that's how I feel.
I played poker too, but it's not my game. I can't stand losing, and I get mad quickly, which isn't healthy in that game. Magic is quite same too, and is not always equal either (because of prices of decks) like poker, but with PRE's there is nothing to lose.
Re: ranking, I think you answered yourself: how would be fair to be already automatically qualified for the Invitational by mid-March? But rest assured that nobody will be qualified without going undefeated several times, so the 2 points to a guy who ended 1-3 are just a consolation. If anything, it's more success-based now. The old system for 2013 showed a definite point creep (was actually very ill-devised), since any 3-1 score would give you 50 points vs. 100 points to the winner. Now it's 6 vs. 18.
Other things the 2 points to match system do are:
- reward participation and long-term fidelity
- push players to play all the rounds rather than drop
- make me have a (more or less) complete list of everyone who played
- one that I realized just now and I love: now you can use decks that just aim at scoring 2-4 points. Of course, that's far from the top decks that do 16 or 18, but still a little something. You can have fun without ending into complete oblivion.
With Venser and Sundial in play you can reuse Detention Sphere, Oblivion Ring pretty much indefinitely.
I think that the planeswalkers are fine, except for Gideon. He doesn't really advance your goals, so I would take him out. I would also take out a bunch of the single use blink effects (Flicker, Liberate). Or if you like them, at least attach them to a body, like Flickerwisp and Glimmerpoint Stag.
Mirrorweave seems cool, but it doesn't really fit the point of the deck. I would cut that. Cache Raiders' ability is mandatory, I don't like that as well, so you can probably cut it.
I'm not a huge fan of Detention Sphere and Oblivion Stone in Commander. I understand what you're trying to do (blink it out when something worse comes along to stick under it) but plain removal is typically better. You don't want to have it blown up at the wrong time and have that bad thing come back when you least want it.
I think the tax to attack effects are fine. But cutting down on the blinking is probably going to serve you best. You don't want to be stuck with a bunch of blink effects in hand, but nothing to blink. Looking for value in your ETB dudes is really where it's at.
Other than that it's just play testing really. Hope this helps.
Can't wait to take into action on Conqueror & Commander. Do we to customize the deck stats? - Michael Courouleau
As you can see, there a lot of new things around us. Just like in the games, now, the modern time has a lot of progress not like before. - Michael Courouleau
I like the content of this article. I never had a chance to play this, but I guess this maybe the right time. - Michael Courouleau
These are all wonderful front liner. Nice pick for the covers, it is really nice. - Casa Sandoval
Whoa, Shadowmoor? That's my favorite draft format of all time!
(Actually, that would be triple Shadowmoor, but I won't let a single pack of Eventide dampen my excitement)
I'll have to wait and see what the current year's standings look like once they're posted, but I'm a little concerned that 2 pts for a match win is going to turn this event into a bit more of a grind. I'm a bit biased, since under the old system I would have had enough points to qualify for the Invitational just with what I'd done by mid-March.
I agreed with almost everything mihahitlor said about the state of the format and player's attitudes towards deck choices, different budgets, and so on. I wasn't really a fan of playing against 3 Goblin decks in a row this week, solely because I didn't think I got a full tournament experience that way. But that was bad luck to face 3 in a row out of 6 total. I want to see variety (if for no other reason than to find something to make videos about) but guess what? In 15 consecutive weeks of doing this Show&Tell series, I've never failed to find at least 2-3 decks that I liked and wanted to talk about, that brought something new and cool to the PRE. So I think on the whole we're doing fine in that area.
I haven't played any games yet since I'm still missing a few cards that ill trade for at the pre release. I think I would like land tax the best as one activation would set me up for 3 more land drops. I had a mindstone in there as ramp/draw but cut it for gilded drake. What would u suggest cutting for thes e changes? I'm guess shave down the flicker bounce affetcs? Or maybe I lose some walkers and some of the tax to attacks?
Thx for replying was hopiing you would.
I have a friend looking to get into Commander with this exact deck. Nice timing! I'll send this his way.