After both articles you've certainly used an impressive amount of cards. I'll have to bookmark both your articles so I can refer to them in the future when making decks.
One multicolored card that wasn't on your list that I've recently enjoyed is Fracturing Gust. The ability to get rid of all artifacts and enchantments at instant speed is great and the life gain is pure gravy.
Honestly, I don't know if RUG is really something you can try. It really does seem like an outlier, one that you just have to be lucky enough to have fall into your lap.
Yea, while it's probably awkward to us (and for them), it's pretty reasonable... they aren't going to just TANK their prices b/c of 2 weeks of IPA. If prices STAY down across the board, then Heath will drop'em some, but for now theres no point.
Rexdart, in my opinion, I think a flaw in your thinking may be this:
Dealers set their buy price on supply and current inventory. Until inventory is at some predetermined level, an increase in supply will have little effect on the buy price. If supply is still high after this level is reached, the buy price will drop. If inventory is low and turnaround is high, the price will increase.
The sell price is more than likely a combination of inventory, demand AND dollar-cost averaging. For example, in times of low demand, if a store bought 3 FOWs @ 100 and 2 @ 80, their investment is 460, thus their sell price would never drop below 92 (avg. price paid)even if inventory is high. If demand is high, once inventory drops below a set level, the sell price will rise (and accordingly the buy price).
Remember, digital objects are pretty unique in that they are non-perishable and don't depreciate with use (as they are always in mint condition, unlike paper cards). There are no reasons to sell-off inventories. Also, dealers make their profit on the buy/sell difference, so it is unreasonable to hold onto higher inventories based on what may or may not happen in the future. They make more on turnaround than on speculation.
Another very good article! Thanks for the effort. Older formats are the best thing about MTGO and need more focus. I have been forcing Grixis for my last 3 drafts and 3-0'ed all 3. This analysis supports what I found, but gives me the inclination to try RUG as well. I posted links to the drafts in this thread if anyone wants to see them:
Just a note - I write these articles a few days in advance, so the prices are from early/mid-week. I'm sure prices will fluctuation, then stabilize for a while. Right now, a lot of people are selling, and fewer are buying. That makes for a temporary downward price bubble. It will sort itself out. Few major chains chase downward bubbles, except maybe to try to buy at the bottom.
He repeatedly failed to reply to emails and pms. That seems like a decline to me. I can't ascribe motives but it struck me as rude to say the least.
No comment on the ripoff guys.
I do believe one reason Heath's prices are to pennies now is to foil the morons who can't figure out the economy for their own business and have to copy what he does.
The owner actually declined to answer? Or did he just not respond? The first case signifies more than the latter.
It seems like good business to randomly post wrong prices if you want to keep people from ripping off your price list.
The infamous bots that stole from their owners used to rip their price list right off MTGOtraders.com. For some time the promo Kjeldoran Outpost was mispriced on MTGOtraders.com and the other bots adapted the much too high price, hence you could make a fair amount of tix by buying the card from a MTGOtrader-bot and selling it to the rip-off bot chain.
Heath should randomly misreport prices for a little number of bad cards - that would keep other stores from coping his price list.
I used to think that was the case and typically I haven't had a problem with them but I have noticed that these discrepancies show the same numbers of cards on the same bots so no increase or decrease in product produces the jump or fall in price listings. I brought this to the bot owner's attention but he declined to respond which to me signifies much.
Saving money is good but so is reliability. I don't attribute any shady dealing here either but perhaps sloppy upkeep/maintenance and or bugs in the algorithms used to script the text files.
If you're talking about the falling star bot's website vs its bots' actual prices, I find it is usually pretty accurate.
HOWEVER.. The bots update in real time as cards are bought/sold. You will notice that if you buy four of one card it will charge you (for example) 1, 1, 1.1, 1.1 even though the card was listed at 1. Their website takes 15 minutes or longer to update. So it can sometimes be out of date if a card was just bought or sold.
I find they often have better prices than our fair leaders here for many things, but not always. Just seems like fair capitalism to me, nothing shady about differing prices between vendors. Also MTGO Traders gives us the option to pay with paypal.
But we do agree that the price listing is not always matching the actual bot price. I would guess it is just some random algorithm that cuts random card prices (.... I am not much into conspiracy theories :-).
You can spot a wrong price by comparing with the surrounding prices. Even though the price is wrong, the card still keeps its place (the right place) in the ordering i.e. when the price is wrong, the ordering of the prices is wrong too - prices are not monotonicly increasing.
However, you cannot spot the wrong price for Force of Will because it is the most expensive card in ME and even when they cut the price (in the list) the ordering of the cards still seems ok.
No implication. They do undercut. They deliberately set their buy and sell prices lower. Not judging it, just noting it. The crazy price listing is what makes me insane since I watch prices on various bots on certain cards just to keep up with how the economy is trending (as a non economist.)
I have seen the site's prices drop dramatically when the bots stay the same so I expect it is someone manually changing things around.
In this case it does seem like fow is dropping steadily if slowly. And I am wondering at the cause.
I was able to buy 3 Vindicates this week at only 30 tix each. While I love mtgotraders and buy from them more than any other source, their decision to just ignore IPA drafting and stubbornly hold to their old prices on IPA is baffling. The actual demand for these cards clearly warrants a much lower price, as people who opened them recently have found. It's not merely Vindicate and Deed, either. Casual favorites like Absorb and Blazing Spectre and others are still 4+ tix each there despite an obvious influx of them into the market. Spiritmonger has hardly moved. I think the IPA prices have always been inflated, as the demand never justified that price. Those cards just sat in stock bc nobody wanted to lower the price and sell them off. I'm afraid the major bots and retailers think they can just pretend these two weeks never happened and go on charging ridiculous prices nobody will ever pay. The bots are buying Vindicates for 20-30 tix this week... What do you wanna bet everyone is back to selling at 60 in a month?
What's really puzzling to me is that I know just enough economics that I realize there can't possibly be collusion on these prices, because the incentive to cheat the cartel is too high. Nobody is doing anything dishonest, the market is so liquid it just wouldnt work. So the only rational conclusion is that every major retailer has decided independently that "someday" the legacy mtgo market will fully emerge, demand will rise, and they'll be sitting on a pile of 200 tix cards, so they all price them NOT to move on purpose.
$84 was not a genuine price. It is selling close to $90. As you note the listed prices are not always correct. Heath does a similar thing if someone tries to rip off his prices (... or he used to?).
You seem to imply that they (..the something-about-a-dying-star people..) set the price to sometimes "undercut" the stores. That is not true. The prices are purely driven by supply and demand. If you buy a card -> the price goes up. If you sell a card -> the price goes down. If nobody buys a card -> the price goes down etc. I.e. no single-person is setting a price.
That kind of system has a hard time reacting to rapid price-changes for the hot cards like Restoration Angel.
Stores like MTGOtraders do more to manage their prices which is why they always have a good stock of the hot cards.
All that being said.... Force of Will might still be falling??
I think that Pikula is your anti-Justice, someone who was also at the top of the (early) game, but who had an impeccable reputation and did a ton for the game when that wasn't an easy thing to do! These days you fire up the internet, browse to the site you're interested in and submit an article about why you need to be honest and not cheat; back then he had to crusade and do so wearing dumb glasses (I wear glasses like them).
I think your other spots after PV have to be Kenji, maybe Chapin (but only if you get Pikula in first, he had a Chapin-like impact before Chapin for a while), Yasooka because he's so good, and dual championships is amazing amazing stuff, and Paul Rietzl who has been dominant most of the time he was on tour.
In fact, this is from 2010, so unless there have been changes:
Apr 24, 2010 -- 11:56AM, Door_Closer wrote:
From community.wizards.com/go/thread/view/758...
WotC_MattT's exact words, taken from the post I linked above (second-to-last paragraph):
And stop confusing cheating for prize splitting in the finals. We're fine with prize splits in the finals, but understand that until we get a system into place to do it through the system, you enter these agreements at your own risk. Sorry about that.
Until that post I was never splitting (as I do not want to even slightly endanger myself). But this quote from an official WotC representative (We're fine with prize splits in the finals) clearly states that splitting in finals is legal and therefore nobody should be penalized for that.
So I am now totally confused.
Edit: By the way, I want to thank Ambitious for originally pointing out Matt's statement to me.
Nope. CoC doesn't appreciate offers made before finals of events. Scooping once there is something to split is different from "hey scoop to me this round and I'll give you 6 tix".
Great stuff. I have been looking forward to seeing this project finished.
Like last time I'll throw out a few personal faves you haven't tried.
Green
Heart Warden- if you want mana dorks he is a good one. The ability to "mind stone" himself gives him nice flexibility and some value. Plus if you draw him late, he basically cycles.
Scryb Ranger- She is just a personal favorite of mine. She is a combat trick, she is a landfall enabler, she flies, she can block blue baddies all day, she just has a huge bag of tricks.
Carpet of Flowers- It is risky card, but it seems most times someone will be blue. It can be hit or miss, but when it hits, it can accelerate you massively.
Gutter Grime- I have grown to love this card lately. It lets you grab more value with every creature you play, and help critter decks maintain pressure against board sweeps. Can also throw a nice wrench want to gave pact their way to victory. It is a fun card.
Holistic Wisdom- This card can be disgusting in the right deck. It is best in green combo decks to just loop big spells and creatures. Even in a regular deck the ability to rebuy the bast cards in your graveyard can be super powerful.
Black
Seems like all of my favorite black critters you have tried.
Spreading Plague, Tainted Pact- I have used both of these to great effect in my creatureless deck. They are powerful, but won't win you many friends.
Mind Slash- In a deck looking to sac it's own creatures this card can force your opponents into top deck mode for answers.
Cremate- Really painless graveyard hate. If you are staring down a deck looking to abuse the yard, hold it and burn when they try something nasty. If they are all playing it straight then just use it real fast with a spare mana to cantrip it.
Skeletal Scrying- I am a bit surprised you have never run this one. It is bargin priced instant speed card draw. The one down side is you have to chew up your yard and it is hard to use early one, but that really isn't to big of a deal.
Brainspoil- Sure it is in your deck for the transmute, honestly though I probaly use it as spot removal as often as a transmute. Its Just a really flexible card.
Gold
You made me realize that I don't run a ton of gold cards. I guess it is because the vast majority of my decks tend to be mono or two colored. There is really only one card that stood out at me as one you had not used.
Soul Manipulation- It is just a hand two for one counter, that you can also just use one mode in a pinch. I find it pretty handy.
As far as the land you pretty much have me covered. Although let me just say give the Tower of Magistrates a little more play. There is so much powerful equipment running around, and it can really throw a wrinkle at it. Plus people forget about it all the time, and you can really burn them when they make bad attacks or blocks. It is a staple for me in any deck that can squeeze it in.
I tried percentages for a while, but I have had problems making it work. Sometimes events seem to get posted twice, and some events lag - for example, an event from the 20th appeared on the list late on the 26th. The result is that some weeks the total number of events is overstated, followed by slight understatements in the following week, and vice versa. That is not a huge problem when just reporting numbers. However, it does occasionally mean I would show a percentage of over 100%, which is just screwy.
I could make it work if I went and verified every link each week, but MTGO Online has an average of 180 links per week, and I don't have the time.
Even if I don't try to account for out-of-period adjustments, I would still have to count PEs, TNMOs, PTQs and anything else in the format that week, to make it possible to calculate the percentage. That was way too much work.
I might put in a column for DEs scheduled. That is not perfect, but it would be something - and that would not change week to week.
After both articles you've certainly used an impressive amount of cards. I'll have to bookmark both your articles so I can refer to them in the future when making decks.
One multicolored card that wasn't on your list that I've recently enjoyed is Fracturing Gust. The ability to get rid of all artifacts and enchantments at instant speed is great and the life gain is pure gravy.
Honestly, I don't know if RUG is really something you can try. It really does seem like an outlier, one that you just have to be lucky enough to have fall into your lap.
Yea, while it's probably awkward to us (and for them), it's pretty reasonable... they aren't going to just TANK their prices b/c of 2 weeks of IPA. If prices STAY down across the board, then Heath will drop'em some, but for now theres no point.
Rexdart, in my opinion, I think a flaw in your thinking may be this:
Dealers set their buy price on supply and current inventory. Until inventory is at some predetermined level, an increase in supply will have little effect on the buy price. If supply is still high after this level is reached, the buy price will drop. If inventory is low and turnaround is high, the price will increase.
The sell price is more than likely a combination of inventory, demand AND dollar-cost averaging. For example, in times of low demand, if a store bought 3 FOWs @ 100 and 2 @ 80, their investment is 460, thus their sell price would never drop below 92 (avg. price paid)even if inventory is high. If demand is high, once inventory drops below a set level, the sell price will rise (and accordingly the buy price).
Remember, digital objects are pretty unique in that they are non-perishable and don't depreciate with use (as they are always in mint condition, unlike paper cards). There are no reasons to sell-off inventories. Also, dealers make their profit on the buy/sell difference, so it is unreasonable to hold onto higher inventories based on what may or may not happen in the future. They make more on turnaround than on speculation.
Another very good article! Thanks for the effort. Older formats are the best thing about MTGO and need more focus. I have been forcing Grixis for my last 3 drafts and 3-0'ed all 3. This analysis supports what I found, but gives me the inclination to try RUG as well. I posted links to the drafts in this thread if anyone wants to see them:
http://forums.mtgsalvation.com/showthread.php?t=424729&page=2
Just a note - I write these articles a few days in advance, so the prices are from early/mid-week. I'm sure prices will fluctuation, then stabilize for a while. Right now, a lot of people are selling, and fewer are buying. That makes for a temporary downward price bubble. It will sort itself out. Few major chains chase downward bubbles, except maybe to try to buy at the bottom.
He repeatedly failed to reply to emails and pms. That seems like a decline to me. I can't ascribe motives but it struck me as rude to say the least.
No comment on the ripoff guys.
I do believe one reason Heath's prices are to pennies now is to foil the morons who can't figure out the economy for their own business and have to copy what he does.
The owner actually declined to answer? Or did he just not respond? The first case signifies more than the latter.
It seems like good business to randomly post wrong prices if you want to keep people from ripping off your price list.
The infamous bots that stole from their owners used to rip their price list right off MTGOtraders.com. For some time the promo Kjeldoran Outpost was mispriced on MTGOtraders.com and the other bots adapted the much too high price, hence you could make a fair amount of tix by buying the card from a MTGOtrader-bot and selling it to the rip-off bot chain.
Heath should randomly misreport prices for a little number of bad cards - that would keep other stores from coping his price list.
I used to think that was the case and typically I haven't had a problem with them but I have noticed that these discrepancies show the same numbers of cards on the same bots so no increase or decrease in product produces the jump or fall in price listings. I brought this to the bot owner's attention but he declined to respond which to me signifies much.
Saving money is good but so is reliability. I don't attribute any shady dealing here either but perhaps sloppy upkeep/maintenance and or bugs in the algorithms used to script the text files.
If you're talking about the falling star bot's website vs its bots' actual prices, I find it is usually pretty accurate.
HOWEVER.. The bots update in real time as cards are bought/sold. You will notice that if you buy four of one card it will charge you (for example) 1, 1, 1.1, 1.1 even though the card was listed at 1. Their website takes 15 minutes or longer to update. So it can sometimes be out of date if a card was just bought or sold.
I find they often have better prices than our fair leaders here for many things, but not always. Just seems like fair capitalism to me, nothing shady about differing prices between vendors. Also MTGO Traders gives us the option to pay with paypal.
Ok. We do not agree on how the prices are set.
But we do agree that the price listing is not always matching the actual bot price. I would guess it is just some random algorithm that cuts random card prices (.... I am not much into conspiracy theories :-).
You can spot a wrong price by comparing with the surrounding prices. Even though the price is wrong, the card still keeps its place (the right place) in the ordering i.e. when the price is wrong, the ordering of the prices is wrong too - prices are not monotonicly increasing.
However, you cannot spot the wrong price for Force of Will because it is the most expensive card in ME and even when they cut the price (in the list) the ordering of the cards still seems ok.
I just wanted to improve Enchantress and Elesh really. But the former shouldn't have been there, and the latter doesn't need improving.
IAS Coaching in Chandigarh
No implication. They do undercut. They deliberately set their buy and sell prices lower. Not judging it, just noting it. The crazy price listing is what makes me insane since I watch prices on various bots on certain cards just to keep up with how the economy is trending (as a non economist.)
I have seen the site's prices drop dramatically when the bots stay the same so I expect it is someone manually changing things around.
In this case it does seem like fow is dropping steadily if slowly. And I am wondering at the cause.
I saw an ORC_ discussing it in the limited queue room, he said it wasn't officially supported but it wasn't against the rules.
I was able to buy 3 Vindicates this week at only 30 tix each. While I love mtgotraders and buy from them more than any other source, their decision to just ignore IPA drafting and stubbornly hold to their old prices on IPA is baffling. The actual demand for these cards clearly warrants a much lower price, as people who opened them recently have found. It's not merely Vindicate and Deed, either. Casual favorites like Absorb and Blazing Spectre and others are still 4+ tix each there despite an obvious influx of them into the market. Spiritmonger has hardly moved. I think the IPA prices have always been inflated, as the demand never justified that price. Those cards just sat in stock bc nobody wanted to lower the price and sell them off. I'm afraid the major bots and retailers think they can just pretend these two weeks never happened and go on charging ridiculous prices nobody will ever pay. The bots are buying Vindicates for 20-30 tix this week... What do you wanna bet everyone is back to selling at 60 in a month?
What's really puzzling to me is that I know just enough economics that I realize there can't possibly be collusion on these prices, because the incentive to cheat the cartel is too high. Nobody is doing anything dishonest, the market is so liquid it just wouldnt work. So the only rational conclusion is that every major retailer has decided independently that "someday" the legacy mtgo market will fully emerge, demand will rise, and they'll be sitting on a pile of 200 tix cards, so they all price them NOT to move on purpose.
$84 was not a genuine price. It is selling close to $90. As you note the listed prices are not always correct. Heath does a similar thing if someone tries to rip off his prices (... or he used to?).
You seem to imply that they (..the something-about-a-dying-star people..) set the price to sometimes "undercut" the stores. That is not true. The prices are purely driven by supply and demand. If you buy a card -> the price goes up. If you sell a card -> the price goes down. If nobody buys a card -> the price goes down etc. I.e. no single-person is setting a price.
That kind of system has a hard time reacting to rapid price-changes for the hot cards like Restoration Angel.
Stores like MTGOtraders do more to manage their prices which is why they always have a good stock of the hot cards.
All that being said.... Force of Will might still be falling??
Pete,
I think that Pikula is your anti-Justice, someone who was also at the top of the (early) game, but who had an impeccable reputation and did a ton for the game when that wasn't an easy thing to do! These days you fire up the internet, browse to the site you're interested in and submit an article about why you need to be honest and not cheat; back then he had to crusade and do so wearing dumb glasses (I wear glasses like them).
I think your other spots after PV have to be Kenji, maybe Chapin (but only if you get Pikula in first, he had a Chapin-like impact before Chapin for a while), Yasooka because he's so good, and dual championships is amazing amazing stuff, and Paul Rietzl who has been dominant most of the time he was on tour.
In fact, this is from 2010, so unless there have been changes:
Apr 24, 2010 -- 11:56AM, Door_Closer wrote:
From community.wizards.com/go/thread/view/758...
WotC_MattT's exact words, taken from the post I linked above (second-to-last paragraph):
And stop confusing cheating for prize splitting in the finals. We're fine with prize splits in the finals, but understand that until we get a system into place to do it through the system, you enter these agreements at your own risk. Sorry about that.
Until that post I was never splitting (as I do not want to even slightly endanger myself). But this quote from an official WotC representative (We're fine with prize splits in the finals) clearly states that splitting in finals is legal and therefore nobody should be penalized for that.
So I am now totally confused.
Edit: By the way, I want to thank Ambitious for originally pointing out Matt's statement to me.
It's not. Bribery is before the finals.
EDIT or if you added something outside the prizes.
Really? Sounds like bribery to me.
Nope. CoC doesn't appreciate offers made before finals of events. Scooping once there is something to split is different from "hey scoop to me this round and I'll give you 6 tix".
Isn't scooping to split against the CoC? I dont think you did your friend any favors mentioning that here.
Great stuff. I have been looking forward to seeing this project finished.
Like last time I'll throw out a few personal faves you haven't tried.
Green
Heart Warden- if you want mana dorks he is a good one. The ability to "mind stone" himself gives him nice flexibility and some value. Plus if you draw him late, he basically cycles.
Scryb Ranger- She is just a personal favorite of mine. She is a combat trick, she is a landfall enabler, she flies, she can block blue baddies all day, she just has a huge bag of tricks.
Carpet of Flowers- It is risky card, but it seems most times someone will be blue. It can be hit or miss, but when it hits, it can accelerate you massively.
Gutter Grime- I have grown to love this card lately. It lets you grab more value with every creature you play, and help critter decks maintain pressure against board sweeps. Can also throw a nice wrench want to gave pact their way to victory. It is a fun card.
Holistic Wisdom- This card can be disgusting in the right deck. It is best in green combo decks to just loop big spells and creatures. Even in a regular deck the ability to rebuy the bast cards in your graveyard can be super powerful.
Black
Seems like all of my favorite black critters you have tried.
Spreading Plague, Tainted Pact- I have used both of these to great effect in my creatureless deck. They are powerful, but won't win you many friends.
Mind Slash- In a deck looking to sac it's own creatures this card can force your opponents into top deck mode for answers.
Cremate- Really painless graveyard hate. If you are staring down a deck looking to abuse the yard, hold it and burn when they try something nasty. If they are all playing it straight then just use it real fast with a spare mana to cantrip it.
Skeletal Scrying- I am a bit surprised you have never run this one. It is bargin priced instant speed card draw. The one down side is you have to chew up your yard and it is hard to use early one, but that really isn't to big of a deal.
Brainspoil- Sure it is in your deck for the transmute, honestly though I probaly use it as spot removal as often as a transmute. Its Just a really flexible card.
Gold
You made me realize that I don't run a ton of gold cards. I guess it is because the vast majority of my decks tend to be mono or two colored. There is really only one card that stood out at me as one you had not used.
Soul Manipulation- It is just a hand two for one counter, that you can also just use one mode in a pinch. I find it pretty handy.
As far as the land you pretty much have me covered. Although let me just say give the Tower of Magistrates a little more play. There is so much powerful equipment running around, and it can really throw a wrinkle at it. Plus people forget about it all the time, and you can really burn them when they make bad attacks or blocks. It is a staple for me in any deck that can squeeze it in.
Somebody record the live chat and put it up here as an article!!
I tried percentages for a while, but I have had problems making it work. Sometimes events seem to get posted twice, and some events lag - for example, an event from the 20th appeared on the list late on the 26th. The result is that some weeks the total number of events is overstated, followed by slight understatements in the following week, and vice versa. That is not a huge problem when just reporting numbers. However, it does occasionally mean I would show a percentage of over 100%, which is just screwy.
I could make it work if I went and verified every link each week, but MTGO Online has an average of 180 links per week, and I don't have the time.
Even if I don't try to account for out-of-period adjustments, I would still have to count PEs, TNMOs, PTQs and anything else in the format that week, to make it possible to calculate the percentage. That was way too much work.
I might put in a column for DEs scheduled. That is not perfect, but it would be something - and that would not change week to week.