Yeah, it is definitely another interesting thing to look at. However, finding numbers on the subject may be difficult to find. I will see what I can find, but I want to make sure whatever I discuss is backed up by data, not speculation. Thanks for the suggestion! And thanks for reading :)
Good point. A recent example is Thragtusk, who IIRC was pushing up against 10 tickets, maybe more, now he's something like half a ticket. Snapcaster Mage, on the other hand is right where he was, maybe even a couple higher, Geist of Saint Traft has held value well too. Certainly another thing to look at.
While it's nice to know the current state of things, and as someone who's been out of MTGO for a while I learned a lot from the article, I think it's also important to distinguish between cards that will retain their value after Standard rotates and those that are likely to tank. You touched on it a little bit with lands. Any dual that comes into play untapped is almost certain to continue to be in demand, the RAV Shocklands doubly so because of their synergy with Fetchlands. You also have a card like Thoughtseize, which is pretty much the best at what it does and sees play even in Legacy. On the other hand, there's stuff like Elspeth and Sphinx's Revelation. They're high dollar cards now, but see little if any time outside of Standard, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them in bargain bins a few years from now.
Wow, thank you very much! I take that as a high compliment. I am going to be updating the article every 2 weeks, with a subject article in between. Make sure to check back for updates! Thanks again for reading
Very good article, probably the most useful or a close second to State, for the casual semi competitive player..which I'd say makes up the majority of online. Thanks and please keep it up.
I was sad to see you shy away from the Chromanticore Challenge! I actually thought you should have taken the Wayfinders in P1, but then they both came back to you and you got 'em anyway! For a R/W deck I wonder if your curve wasn't quite low enough? Would be interested to see how you built the deck. Thanks for posting!!
Agreed, it would be an interesting metric to look at, but it is almost impossible to measure unless you opened 100,000+ packs and recorded observations. Even that might not be enough to conclusively prove anything. But you're right, there's no solid data on the subject.
It is highly unlikely to get even reasonably accurate numbers on any certain card. There are just too many factors. While the number of each rare/mythic opened would be the same after that it becomes quite murky. How many are removed through redemption? Do you count ones that people plan on holding as in circulation? What about players who never trade away cards? What about accounts that go dormant?
Thanks! I'm glad you found some value in this, and I will definitely be working to keep this article updated every other week. Thanks a lot for reading!
This was a great read, and a helpful way for people who have full-time jobs to get a quick appraisal of the metagame. I really hope you write more like this.
I don't really play longer events due to time constraints, but what you've posted of the metagame is definitely borne out in the 8-man queues as well. Easily 60% of what I've played against has featured a Desecration Demon & co.
Hey! First of all, thanks a lot for reading. I like the idea of circulation numbers, although I would be surprised if Wizards would be open enough to keep data on it. But yeah, data on the "chase rares" would definitely be interesting.
It seems like a lot of people enjoyed the article, so I definitely plan on updating it. I think I'm going to try to change the timing so that it can be published with "State of the Program" on Fridays. That way, the information isn't at risk of being obsolete from waiting for publication over the weekend. Please feel free to share the article!
I'm going to keep trying to develop more metrics. Any suggestions are always welcome!
Thank you for the article I really like reading up on other players take on the financials of the game and glad to see I am not the only one trying to figure it out. I would have to agree with the value in the Scry lands, I saw quite a profit in RTR lands just before GTC game out and expect the same during the next cycle.
It would also be interesting to see if there is any data available on the number of certain cards in "circulation". Being a very draft oriented player I feel I have a decent feel of what cards might be "more rare" than others.
I really hope you keep working on this article and post it regularly, it would make a nice compliment to "state of the program"
Thanks so much! Yeah I think the lands are the easiest to overlook because they aren't as "flashy". Well, it seems like there's some interest so hopefully I can keep updating these numbers every other week! Thanks for reading!
I think there is an inner math geek in almost anyone who plays Magic, and this really speaks to that! :P I also think you have a solid take-away: Start by getting the lands! Super solid and I hope to see more from you.
Good stuff. Killing people with Sorrow's Path is always fun: I had a Wizard tribal deck back in the day that used Vedalken Plotter or Political Trickery to swap it for a useful land, then Opposition, Magus of the Candelabra, Rimewind Taskmage, Floodbringer, Oboro Breezecaller (In conjunction with Rites of Flourishing and Azusa) to repeatedly tap and untap it until my opponent and all his creatures were shocked and pyroclasmed to death.
Thanks for the feedback! Yes I will be continuing to find ways to tweak the formula or create new ones that add value. This article is kind of the starting point to see what the interest level is. I think those are definitely some good ideas, I will have to spend some time and see if/how they can be incorporated. Thanks for reading!
It's an interesting concept for a metric. I would think that it could be better served by adding in some other factors however. The metric seems to be an answer for "what cards are or are not earning their value if the only format was standard?" Trying to compensate by adding factors such as other format influence, overall win rate (if MBC has ~20% of the wins but starts off as 60% of the meta it really isn't that cost efficient), or the pressure of redemption (rares will nearly always score significantly better because they will be much cheaper in comparison to mythics due to redemption).
I gotta disagree with the mono red comparison. That was an almost entirely brainless "creature-spam and hope for the best" deck, as I complained about repeatedly during my commentary on that format, whereas this is a skill intensive pseudo aggro/combo deck that plays out very differently from traditional aggro decks. There's not many formats where your 1-drop will quite probably eat a Polukranos in combat by the time it gets down! I think WoTC have done a great job with the block aggro decks this time around, they're far more interesting than the tilt-inducing mono red deck was in RTR block.
Nice article, and thanks for the very kind shoutout :). I was going to write about the deck in this week's article, but i've been sidelined by grinding for 15 QPs in other formats so my article this week is probably going to be a bit different from normal. I'll probably take a look at it next week, so will be interested to see how my testing goes. From what I've played so far, I feel like your naya results may be unrepresentative but I want to do more testing. This deck does straight out beat BWR though, and I feel like it should have a good match against esper though others do seem to disagree.
I've been building and playing these decks you're coming up with and it's been a lot of fun.
The Trading Post deck worked really well for me, but the Vraska deck just didn't click for me at all. It never had what it needed when it needed it. That's how it goes sometimes...
But... this deck works very consistently for me. I've been tinkering with Angelic Accord for a while and never got it to work as well as yours does. I did make one change, however: I got rid of the two Gift of Immortality and replaced them with two copies of Heroes' Reunion. I've been facing down a lot of R/W burn and Gift just wasn't working for me. But, when you can pay two mana and gain seven life AND get a 4/4 angel token it really helps get me over the hump.
I'd like to see you take a crack at building a deck using Crackling Perimeter as a wincon. I saw a guy with just such a deck at a recent PTQ. I'd like to see your take on it. (The games I saw him win did not involve Maze's End. He just burned them out with the Perimeter which was the only red card in his deck.)
Well you know how to reach me any time I am actually awake (and advanced notice will obtain that) if you want me to participate. 2HG could be done but maybe some ground rules for that. It is really not hard to make super fast combos with 2 players on a side.
Unfortunately I won't be up for this kaleido event despite enjoying the idea of it.
Update on the Emperor Challenge: No luck, not enough people accessible and no viable time to get 6 together. Suggest we downgrade from Emperor to something more doable with the resources available.
Yeah, it is definitely another interesting thing to look at. However, finding numbers on the subject may be difficult to find. I will see what I can find, but I want to make sure whatever I discuss is backed up by data, not speculation. Thanks for the suggestion! And thanks for reading :)
Good point. A recent example is Thragtusk, who IIRC was pushing up against 10 tickets, maybe more, now he's something like half a ticket. Snapcaster Mage, on the other hand is right where he was, maybe even a couple higher, Geist of Saint Traft has held value well too. Certainly another thing to look at.
While it's nice to know the current state of things, and as someone who's been out of MTGO for a while I learned a lot from the article, I think it's also important to distinguish between cards that will retain their value after Standard rotates and those that are likely to tank. You touched on it a little bit with lands. Any dual that comes into play untapped is almost certain to continue to be in demand, the RAV Shocklands doubly so because of their synergy with Fetchlands. You also have a card like Thoughtseize, which is pretty much the best at what it does and sees play even in Legacy. On the other hand, there's stuff like Elspeth and Sphinx's Revelation. They're high dollar cards now, but see little if any time outside of Standard, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them in bargain bins a few years from now.
Wow, thank you very much! I take that as a high compliment. I am going to be updating the article every 2 weeks, with a subject article in between. Make sure to check back for updates! Thanks again for reading
Very good article, probably the most useful or a close second to State, for the casual semi competitive player..which I'd say makes up the majority of online. Thanks and please keep it up.
I'll try to find the deck copy, but I think it's gone. I know it was not a great deck tho
I was sad to see you shy away from the Chromanticore Challenge! I actually thought you should have taken the Wayfinders in P1, but then they both came back to you and you got 'em anyway! For a R/W deck I wonder if your curve wasn't quite low enough? Would be interested to see how you built the deck. Thanks for posting!!
Agreed, it would be an interesting metric to look at, but it is almost impossible to measure unless you opened 100,000+ packs and recorded observations. Even that might not be enough to conclusively prove anything. But you're right, there's no solid data on the subject.
It is highly unlikely to get even reasonably accurate numbers on any certain card. There are just too many factors. While the number of each rare/mythic opened would be the same after that it becomes quite murky. How many are removed through redemption? Do you count ones that people plan on holding as in circulation? What about players who never trade away cards? What about accounts that go dormant?
Thanks! I'm glad you found some value in this, and I will definitely be working to keep this article updated every other week. Thanks a lot for reading!
This was a great read, and a helpful way for people who have full-time jobs to get a quick appraisal of the metagame. I really hope you write more like this.
I don't really play longer events due to time constraints, but what you've posted of the metagame is definitely borne out in the 8-man queues as well. Easily 60% of what I've played against has featured a Desecration Demon & co.
Hey! First of all, thanks a lot for reading. I like the idea of circulation numbers, although I would be surprised if Wizards would be open enough to keep data on it. But yeah, data on the "chase rares" would definitely be interesting.
It seems like a lot of people enjoyed the article, so I definitely plan on updating it. I think I'm going to try to change the timing so that it can be published with "State of the Program" on Fridays. That way, the information isn't at risk of being obsolete from waiting for publication over the weekend. Please feel free to share the article!
I'm going to keep trying to develop more metrics. Any suggestions are always welcome!
Thank you for the article I really like reading up on other players take on the financials of the game and glad to see I am not the only one trying to figure it out. I would have to agree with the value in the Scry lands, I saw quite a profit in RTR lands just before GTC game out and expect the same during the next cycle.
It would also be interesting to see if there is any data available on the number of certain cards in "circulation". Being a very draft oriented player I feel I have a decent feel of what cards might be "more rare" than others.
I really hope you keep working on this article and post it regularly, it would make a nice compliment to "state of the program"
Thanks so much! Yeah I think the lands are the easiest to overlook because they aren't as "flashy". Well, it seems like there's some interest so hopefully I can keep updating these numbers every other week! Thanks for reading!
I think there is an inner math geek in almost anyone who plays Magic, and this really speaks to that! :P I also think you have a solid take-away: Start by getting the lands! Super solid and I hope to see more from you.
Good stuff. Killing people with Sorrow's Path is always fun: I had a Wizard tribal deck back in the day that used Vedalken Plotter or Political Trickery to swap it for a useful land, then Opposition, Magus of the Candelabra, Rimewind Taskmage, Floodbringer, Oboro Breezecaller (In conjunction with Rites of Flourishing and Azusa) to repeatedly tap and untap it until my opponent and all his creatures were shocked and pyroclasmed to death.
Thanks for the feedback! Yes I will be continuing to find ways to tweak the formula or create new ones that add value. This article is kind of the starting point to see what the interest level is. I think those are definitely some good ideas, I will have to spend some time and see if/how they can be incorporated. Thanks for reading!
It's an interesting concept for a metric. I would think that it could be better served by adding in some other factors however. The metric seems to be an answer for "what cards are or are not earning their value if the only format was standard?" Trying to compensate by adding factors such as other format influence, overall win rate (if MBC has ~20% of the wins but starts off as 60% of the meta it really isn't that cost efficient), or the pressure of redemption (rares will nearly always score significantly better because they will be much cheaper in comparison to mythics due to redemption).
I gotta disagree with the mono red comparison. That was an almost entirely brainless "creature-spam and hope for the best" deck, as I complained about repeatedly during my commentary on that format, whereas this is a skill intensive pseudo aggro/combo deck that plays out very differently from traditional aggro decks. There's not many formats where your 1-drop will quite probably eat a Polukranos in combat by the time it gets down! I think WoTC have done a great job with the block aggro decks this time around, they're far more interesting than the tilt-inducing mono red deck was in RTR block.
Nice article, and thanks for the very kind shoutout :). I was going to write about the deck in this week's article, but i've been sidelined by grinding for 15 QPs in other formats so my article this week is probably going to be a bit different from normal. I'll probably take a look at it next week, so will be interested to see how my testing goes. From what I've played so far, I feel like your naya results may be unrepresentative but I want to do more testing. This deck does straight out beat BWR though, and I feel like it should have a good match against esper though others do seem to disagree.
I've been building and playing these decks you're coming up with and it's been a lot of fun.
The Trading Post deck worked really well for me, but the Vraska deck just didn't click for me at all. It never had what it needed when it needed it. That's how it goes sometimes...
But... this deck works very consistently for me. I've been tinkering with Angelic Accord for a while and never got it to work as well as yours does. I did make one change, however: I got rid of the two Gift of Immortality and replaced them with two copies of Heroes' Reunion. I've been facing down a lot of R/W burn and Gift just wasn't working for me. But, when you can pay two mana and gain seven life AND get a 4/4 angel token it really helps get me over the hump.
I'd like to see you take a crack at building a deck using Crackling Perimeter as a wincon. I saw a guy with just such a deck at a recent PTQ. I'd like to see your take on it. (The games I saw him win did not involve Maze's End. He just burned them out with the Perimeter which was the only red card in his deck.)
It's been that way for months. I assume they can pay out to 2-2 in Sealed since you're spending 3x more than you would in a Constructed Daily.
Really? 2-2 still nets you a prize? That's surprising.
Well you know how to reach me any time I am actually awake (and advanced notice will obtain that) if you want me to participate. 2HG could be done but maybe some ground rules for that. It is really not hard to make super fast combos with 2 players on a side.
Unfortunately I won't be up for this kaleido event despite enjoying the idea of it.
Update on the Emperor Challenge: No luck, not enough people accessible and no viable time to get 6 together. Suggest we downgrade from Emperor to something more doable with the resources available.