Rolling Earthquake is an interesting choice for Damnation. Good call! I'd say it replaces Savage Twister pretty easily in Classic. You know though, now that you've said it, you should build that horsemanship deck that you don't want to run into. :) You've already told us to buy the Rolling Earthquakes!
Thoughtseize, Duress, and Blightning can still cause annoying concession problems. :\
There's a problem with Malfegor, like you saw in game 4. His ability isn't optional, and if your opponent controls no creatures then you won't want to cast him. That can suck, especially when you're holding TWO Malfegor like you were, but this is the right deck for him. So I guess go for it. His promo is pretty cheap, too.
The classic match #2 with the GW Thallids sounds like it was an epic game. Kind of funny that it made you add Demonfire, which was also a late a addition to the modern maindeck, but only as a budget replacement for Banefire. Heh. I guess it was meant to be.
The reason mana crypt is banned (imo at least), is because the card acts like a double mox if you get it in your starting hand you are on 3 mana t1. That is better than sol ring, in fact the only equivalent is the moxes and lotus. The life gain can hurt and you can get unlucky and hit it 5 turns in a row, but it averages 1.5 life per turn.
all the cards jointly banned should stay banned. except for jitte. Ya its great, but so are alot of other equipments. If it was unbanned people would just get more prepared for artifacts.
all the others that are banned in paper or just online (bottom 2 lists) should be unbanned imo, except for gifts and maybe trinisphere. Gifts gives you the win, at instant speed. I havnt played with or against trinisphere but it seems easily broken (maybe with mana crypt, turn 1). The others are all strong cards that help provide the win. They are all cards that have very powerful abilities, but not overwhelming. They are just pieces of the puzzle, where gifts gives you the whole puzzle.
I was terrible at drawing Malfegor. The only game I drew him was late against the Staff of Domination deck when I was already totally locked down under circle of protection: red. I've played a bunch of games since writing this article, and Malfegor has shown up a couple of times and always been great. He's pretty much the perfect late-game card for this deck. The only time he's not is if CoP: Red is in play =)
Good article. I was sad to see Malfegor didn't get cast once during the games you mention. Did he ever get out? Obviously you need someone to have creatures in play to be effective, and there are probably more creatureless strategies in classic.
Nice idea. Sadly the avatars are really not a good choice imho. Id feel no incentive to play in an 8 man just to get an alt art avatar or even a new one. If I had the tickets Id play in them anyway if I was semi confident I had a winning deck. Otherwise no incentive that has no monetary value would get me to spend tickets.
I've been thinking a lot about ways that the community and WotC could promote our favorite formats. One of the ideas I've come up with is format specific avatars / alternate art avatars.
In other words create a unique avatar or an alternate art version of an already existing avatar that can be won only by winning an 8-man queue or making the top 8 of a weekend challenge for a specific format like 100 singleton.
Example of Unique Avatars
Eternal Witness - Avatar - for 100 Singleton
Force of Will - Avatar - for Classic
Lotus Cobra - Avatar - for Standard Singleton
etc...
Example of Alt. Art Avatar
Loxodon Hierarch - Avatar - for 100 Singleton
Necropetence - Avatar - for Classic
Birds of Paradise - Avatar - for Standard Singleton
etc...
This kind of promotion would give something unique to each format and encourage collectors to try out these formats. It would also be a way for us players to promote the format by responding to "Cool Avatar, how did you get it?" questions.
I'm not sure what the legal restrictions are but WotC might not even need to commission new art, they might be able to use a resampled version of card art for this kind of promotion.
I have been playing green red aggro for a while now with decent success. It was actually inspired by your pauper cascade article from a while back. Getting Rancor has definitely changed my deck and given it the edge it needed to finish off opponents. It is interesting to see your take on the deck type.
I'm running almost the same burn+rancor suite as you. My creature list is 100% different though. Mine is much more about haste and quick damage.
As far as your pinger goes you can also try the Vulshok Sorcerer. It can start pinging the same turn as the Fireslinger. Sure it is one more mana, but I think haste and also not hitting you in the face might make up for that.
Here's the blurb from the 1/2 off promotion. It doesn't mention the 2-man queues, so I'm assuming they are still full price. Still, if we can spread the word to all the 100 singleton players and people who might like to try 100 singleton for the first time, the 8-man queues for half the cost is still a wonderful deal and a cheap way to enter the format.
"Standard and Zendikar Block Constructed can be fun but have you tried your deckbuilding skills in some of the other formats on Magic Online? Now you can for half the normal tickets! During each week of the holiday promotion all 8-player queues, daily events, premier events, and weekend challenges for the selected format will cost half the normal amount of event tickets to enter while still offering the same prizes! Start testing your deck ideas now!"
Also, are you sure the 100 singleton queues will be giving out MED3 packs. I played in 2 100-singleton queues yesterday and they both paid out Exodus packs. It would seem silly if they reverted back to MED3 after they've already switched to Exodus.
However I've noticed that WotC has done a lot of weird things with pack payouts.
This is very interesting, and on the whole, great work. Some things for the less statistically-minded to keep in mind as reading re: biasing factors:
-This is really a correlation study, not a causation study - there may be cards that are "generally" found next to each other that are driven up/down due to factors like synergy, and the existence of a card doesn't guarantee its impact on winning the game (directly, at least). That doesn't mean the card didn't help, either - just that it's not guaranteed in each specific case.
-Skill level still exists, and it's hard to say how large an impact that has, even on sealed.
-Separately, but related, there may be a "perception gap" whereby better players select a certain subset of cards at a higher rate because of factors other than the card's actual (inherent) quality or ability to affect the game . . . some examples may include the general distaste for green among top players or a preference for black, or a general thought that "aggro is best" so the strategy is "forced" in more pools by better players. This would amplify skill level factors for a subset of cards (although the correlation would be unchanged, the causation tilts toward play skill).
With that said, I'm kind of surprised at the low level of significance given the high n - and I can't imagine how much time this took. Thanks for tracking this down - it's always interesting to see how the data interacts with conventional wisdom. Great work.
I, for one, don't think you were assuming anything. If you say it's so then you have solid reasons for that. I know you don't go around declaring decks to be net decks on scant evidence.
I am not really sure what the relevance of it being a net deck in casual is. I see nothing wrong with people bringing well known tier 1 decks to casual (or whatever tier) because if they are doing so they are probably not very good players and they are merely trying to even the playing field. On the other hand as they become better we can hope they outgrow that habit.
As you know I like to add details to my reports and leave little out but I like your style too. variety is the spice of life. :D
We will have to do more testing when I have the time. I am not a huge fan of standard as you know but that is more my frustration at knowing the tiered decks really are very much the same. But casual standard decks can be very rogue and yours usually are. At least within a spikish framework. It is true you lost some of those games (I'd forgotten that) but I felt they were fun games. Which is unusual. Normally I dislike the format so much that even winning isn't fun.
Ah, I had misinterpreted the article as saying that you -had- seen statistically significant results on Blood Seeker, since you mentioned it in the 90% confidence section. Never mind me.
I appreciate the effort that went into gathering this data, and it was a good read even if, as you point out, a lot of the results can be chalked up to randomness.
As a math major, it's good to see someone writing that actually understands statistics beyond dividing things by the sample size. People love to throw around percentages in this game.
I loved using my one Planeswalker I got in a draft. Almost never got to use it though. One just isnt enough. Had me both Ajanis at one point. Sold em to draft.
i liked this article, i mean if you read the other articles about zen commons, you already deducted the majority of this content, but its always nice to see a new evaluation put forth.
Excellent! I didn't realize glory of warfare was that cheap, must put on shopping list!
Your description of the feeling a casual player gets when he sees a turn 3 Ajani (of either stripe) or some other tier 1 combination was absolutely spot on. It is a very helpless feeling, like someone brought in Kobe Bryant to be their teammate in a pick up basketball game.
I don't agree with the assumption comment but I can understand where it comes from.
When I write about game reports, I don't write every single thing that happens during the game but rather summarize the game by naming a few key cards that has been played and some important actions that happen during the game. And then when I use "Asension & Mine" + "netdeck" in the same sentence, you may think that I'm making some assumptions, because I'm not giving you any other card name or any other clue about the opponent's deck.
But you can be sure that when I say netdeck, it's a netdeck. I know the decks, the meta and what's a netdeck and what's not. I know that not every Ascension deck is a netdeck but I also know very well which ones are. Magic is one of my prime hobbies and I'm following the "trends" very closely. Therefore I want you to trust me in that. If I say it's a netdeck, then we really shouldn't be arguing because... it is.
But as I said, I can understand why you say that I'm making assumptions. I just wanted to clarify.
Interesting article that I enjoyed reading, but you come across as aloof and a little silly by going on about what people should or shouldnt be playing in the casual room, and by making assumptions as to the origins of their decks.
I have been playing counters in the casual room alot lately (both in aggro control and control) and have not run into anyone complaining about it like they used to. I feel like Wizard's adjustment of the power level of counter spells in recent sets has had some effect on this. By getting rid of full counters in the 2cc spot (counter spell and mana laek)and replacing them with more limited counters essence scatter, negate, cancel and even spell pierce. I think it has made counters more palatible to alot of people. Another factor is I feel like card drawing in the current standard is less powerful overall, again making it more difficult to keep enough counters in hand.
I don't have any stats to back this up just a feeling about the current format. Does anyone else have an opinion on this??
This could be a spot where Wizard's has done an excellent job adjusting the power level in a format to make it more fun.
Rolling Earthquake is an interesting choice for Damnation. Good call! I'd say it replaces Savage Twister pretty easily in Classic. You know though, now that you've said it, you should build that horsemanship deck that you don't want to run into. :) You've already told us to buy the Rolling Earthquakes!
Thoughtseize, Duress, and Blightning can still cause annoying concession problems. :\
There's a problem with Malfegor, like you saw in game 4. His ability isn't optional, and if your opponent controls no creatures then you won't want to cast him. That can suck, especially when you're holding TWO Malfegor like you were, but this is the right deck for him. So I guess go for it. His promo is pretty cheap, too.
The classic match #2 with the GW Thallids sounds like it was an epic game. Kind of funny that it made you add Demonfire, which was also a late a addition to the modern maindeck, but only as a budget replacement for Banefire. Heh. I guess it was meant to be.
The reason mana crypt is banned (imo at least), is because the card acts like a double mox if you get it in your starting hand you are on 3 mana t1. That is better than sol ring, in fact the only equivalent is the moxes and lotus. The life gain can hurt and you can get unlucky and hit it 5 turns in a row, but it averages 1.5 life per turn.
all the cards jointly banned should stay banned. except for jitte. Ya its great, but so are alot of other equipments. If it was unbanned people would just get more prepared for artifacts.
all the others that are banned in paper or just online (bottom 2 lists) should be unbanned imo, except for gifts and maybe trinisphere. Gifts gives you the win, at instant speed. I havnt played with or against trinisphere but it seems easily broken (maybe with mana crypt, turn 1). The others are all strong cards that help provide the win. They are all cards that have very powerful abilities, but not overwhelming. They are just pieces of the puzzle, where gifts gives you the whole puzzle.
I was terrible at drawing Malfegor. The only game I drew him was late against the Staff of Domination deck when I was already totally locked down under circle of protection: red. I've played a bunch of games since writing this article, and Malfegor has shown up a couple of times and always been great. He's pretty much the perfect late-game card for this deck. The only time he's not is if CoP: Red is in play =)
Good article. I was sad to see Malfegor didn't get cast once during the games you mention. Did he ever get out? Obviously you need someone to have creatures in play to be effective, and there are probably more creatureless strategies in classic.
Nice idea. Sadly the avatars are really not a good choice imho. Id feel no incentive to play in an 8 man just to get an alt art avatar or even a new one. If I had the tickets Id play in them anyway if I was semi confident I had a winning deck. Otherwise no incentive that has no monetary value would get me to spend tickets.
I've been thinking a lot about ways that the community and WotC could promote our favorite formats. One of the ideas I've come up with is format specific avatars / alternate art avatars.
In other words create a unique avatar or an alternate art version of an already existing avatar that can be won only by winning an 8-man queue or making the top 8 of a weekend challenge for a specific format like 100 singleton.
Example of Unique Avatars
Eternal Witness - Avatar - for 100 Singleton
Force of Will - Avatar - for Classic
Lotus Cobra - Avatar - for Standard Singleton
etc...
Example of Alt. Art Avatar
Loxodon Hierarch - Avatar - for 100 Singleton
Necropetence - Avatar - for Classic
Birds of Paradise - Avatar - for Standard Singleton
etc...
This kind of promotion would give something unique to each format and encourage collectors to try out these formats. It would also be a way for us players to promote the format by responding to "Cool Avatar, how did you get it?" questions.
I'm not sure what the legal restrictions are but WotC might not even need to commission new art, they might be able to use a resampled version of card art for this kind of promotion.
hahaha well can't believe I missed that one. Well Innocent Blood isn't in extended anymore and that's the one I really wanted to use =)
Magnivore is still Ext legal: It was also reprinted in 9th Ed, which won't rotate for a good while.
I have been playing green red aggro for a while now with decent success. It was actually inspired by your pauper cascade article from a while back. Getting Rancor has definitely changed my deck and given it the edge it needed to finish off opponents. It is interesting to see your take on the deck type.
I'm running almost the same burn+rancor suite as you. My creature list is 100% different though. Mine is much more about haste and quick damage.
As far as your pinger goes you can also try the Vulshok Sorcerer. It can start pinging the same turn as the Fireslinger. Sure it is one more mana, but I think haste and also not hitting you in the face might make up for that.
Here's the blurb from the 1/2 off promotion. It doesn't mention the 2-man queues, so I'm assuming they are still full price. Still, if we can spread the word to all the 100 singleton players and people who might like to try 100 singleton for the first time, the 8-man queues for half the cost is still a wonderful deal and a cheap way to enter the format.
"Standard and Zendikar Block Constructed can be fun but have you tried your deckbuilding skills in some of the other formats on Magic Online? Now you can for half the normal tickets! During each week of the holiday promotion all 8-player queues, daily events, premier events, and weekend challenges for the selected format will cost half the normal amount of event tickets to enter while still offering the same prizes! Start testing your deck ideas now!"
Also, are you sure the 100 singleton queues will be giving out MED3 packs. I played in 2 100-singleton queues yesterday and they both paid out Exodus packs. It would seem silly if they reverted back to MED3 after they've already switched to Exodus.
However I've noticed that WotC has done a lot of weird things with pack payouts.
Thought you were taking a break. Nice to see that you're still around.
love the idea, but would really love to see some match reports to go with it
This is very interesting, and on the whole, great work. Some things for the less statistically-minded to keep in mind as reading re: biasing factors:
-This is really a correlation study, not a causation study - there may be cards that are "generally" found next to each other that are driven up/down due to factors like synergy, and the existence of a card doesn't guarantee its impact on winning the game (directly, at least). That doesn't mean the card didn't help, either - just that it's not guaranteed in each specific case.
-Skill level still exists, and it's hard to say how large an impact that has, even on sealed.
-Separately, but related, there may be a "perception gap" whereby better players select a certain subset of cards at a higher rate because of factors other than the card's actual (inherent) quality or ability to affect the game . . . some examples may include the general distaste for green among top players or a preference for black, or a general thought that "aggro is best" so the strategy is "forced" in more pools by better players. This would amplify skill level factors for a subset of cards (although the correlation would be unchanged, the causation tilts toward play skill).
With that said, I'm kind of surprised at the low level of significance given the high n - and I can't imagine how much time this took. Thanks for tracking this down - it's always interesting to see how the data interacts with conventional wisdom. Great work.
The list was sent out with the monthly player rewards newsletter:
Magic Online Factoid
Top 10 first picks of 8-4 ZEN draft winners:
1. Hideous End
2. Burst Lightning
3. Vampire Nighthawk
4. Journey to Nowhere
5. Marsh Casualties
6. Disfigure
7. Plated Geopede
8. Trusty Machete
9. Malakir Bloodwitch
10. Kor Skyfisher
I, for one, don't think you were assuming anything. If you say it's so then you have solid reasons for that. I know you don't go around declaring decks to be net decks on scant evidence.
I am not really sure what the relevance of it being a net deck in casual is. I see nothing wrong with people bringing well known tier 1 decks to casual (or whatever tier) because if they are doing so they are probably not very good players and they are merely trying to even the playing field. On the other hand as they become better we can hope they outgrow that habit.
As you know I like to add details to my reports and leave little out but I like your style too. variety is the spice of life. :D
We will have to do more testing when I have the time. I am not a huge fan of standard as you know but that is more my frustration at knowing the tiered decks really are very much the same. But casual standard decks can be very rogue and yours usually are. At least within a spikish framework. It is true you lost some of those games (I'd forgotten that) but I felt they were fun games. Which is unusual. Normally I dislike the format so much that even winning isn't fun.
Ah, I had misinterpreted the article as saying that you -had- seen statistically significant results on Blood Seeker, since you mentioned it in the 90% confidence section. Never mind me.
I appreciate the effort that went into gathering this data, and it was a good read even if, as you point out, a lot of the results can be chalked up to randomness.
As a math major, it's good to see someone writing that actually understands statistics beyond dividing things by the sample size. People love to throw around percentages in this game.
the best equip for double strike is without doubt.. the jitte.
the second best is Quietus Spike
Equipped creature has deathtouch.
Whenever equipped creature deals combat damage to a player, that player loses half his or her life, rounded up.
Math behind getting hit by 1/1 double strike
first strike
20-1=19
19-10=9
second strike
9-1=8
8-4=4
and how dare u miss out first strike+deathtouch combo..
+Quietus spike is quite cheap
I loved using my one Planeswalker I got in a draft. Almost never got to use it though. One just isnt enough. Had me both Ajanis at one point. Sold em to draft.
i liked this article, i mean if you read the other articles about zen commons, you already deducted the majority of this content, but its always nice to see a new evaluation put forth.
keep it up
Excellent! I didn't realize glory of warfare was that cheap, must put on shopping list!
Your description of the feeling a casual player gets when he sees a turn 3 Ajani (of either stripe) or some other tier 1 combination was absolutely spot on. It is a very helpless feeling, like someone brought in Kobe Bryant to be their teammate in a pick up basketball game.
This was an amazing Article! I really appreciate you taking the time to do this and cannot wait to read the rest!!! Thank you, Luke
I don't agree with the assumption comment but I can understand where it comes from.
When I write about game reports, I don't write every single thing that happens during the game but rather summarize the game by naming a few key cards that has been played and some important actions that happen during the game. And then when I use "Asension & Mine" + "netdeck" in the same sentence, you may think that I'm making some assumptions, because I'm not giving you any other card name or any other clue about the opponent's deck.
But you can be sure that when I say netdeck, it's a netdeck. I know the decks, the meta and what's a netdeck and what's not. I know that not every Ascension deck is a netdeck but I also know very well which ones are. Magic is one of my prime hobbies and I'm following the "trends" very closely. Therefore I want you to trust me in that. If I say it's a netdeck, then we really shouldn't be arguing because... it is.
But as I said, I can understand why you say that I'm making assumptions. I just wanted to clarify.
Thank you again for all the comments.
LE
Interesting article that I enjoyed reading, but you come across as aloof and a little silly by going on about what people should or shouldnt be playing in the casual room, and by making assumptions as to the origins of their decks.
I have been playing counters in the casual room alot lately (both in aggro control and control) and have not run into anyone complaining about it like they used to. I feel like Wizard's adjustment of the power level of counter spells in recent sets has had some effect on this. By getting rid of full counters in the 2cc spot (counter spell and mana laek)and replacing them with more limited counters essence scatter, negate, cancel and even spell pierce. I think it has made counters more palatible to alot of people. Another factor is I feel like card drawing in the current standard is less powerful overall, again making it more difficult to keep enough counters in hand.
I don't have any stats to back this up just a feeling about the current format. Does anyone else have an opinion on this??
This could be a spot where Wizard's has done an excellent job adjusting the power level in a format to make it more fun.