after 12-post, Hive Mind is the second offender for "most broken". Since when the enchantment resolves, all someone has to do is cast pacts since they don't pass priority until after the copies are made. The only out at that point (that I can think of) is Angel's Grace, which is an answer- to one turn of worth pacts anyway. If one traps the Hive Mind Player this way, they are stuck trying to pay for pacts at their upkeep...
Sundial of the Infinite is another potential answer, assuming you get out before someone hive minds.
They nerf 12-post and then Twin/Swath/Hive Mind variants will get the hammer next. This is the problem with them neutering control decks.
There is an old magical adage that I remember that basically said, "If you make the available countermagic weak, the combo decks will come out in force"
Cryptic Command is too slow. Mana Leak and Rune Snage are laughable in the face of Locus mana. Remand is for tempo and not a solution.
It is similar to "when the cats are away, the mice will come to play".
This is a combo driven format. The cat is out of the bag. Meddling Mage and Chalice of the Void should skyrocket any day now...
@Marzial- Statistics are also useless unless the math is correct. It is really hard to get good statistics unless you gather them for a living. Asking someone to put statistics together is like asking them to change professions. While I am sure that Andrea is good at math, even experienced statisticians would have to demonstrate their methodology of gathering and processing data, otherwise it is just a string of meaningless numbers.
good points apaulogy . It is combo environment and zoo etc.. look pathetic compared to combos. i have died so many times to first or second turn storm decks, it is not even funny. even chalice sometimes is slow. also hive mind decks are chalice proof. since it counters only the original spell and the copy kills you, plus those decks are immunu to enchnatment removal since you never get the priority. with pathetic counters around, it is combo rising not aggro and wizards failed once more.
Crack the fetch before brainstorm for 3 new cards, rather than seeing the card you put back on top, also agree with the beast within to kill Karakas. And, haven't used oath much, in response to the trigger can't you tap the orchard and create a spirit and get your creature? I don't see why fro reading the card why it wouldn't work but not having played at that time not sure the interaction.
UB Merfolk isn't a rogue deck, just a port from Legacy. Phantasmal Image is almost certainly just there to copy Lords/Dark Confidant. I suppose it is possible to copy Emrakul by putting it into play via Aether Vial, but then they are both legend ruled, you get time walked, and they can search it up again with Eye of Ugin, and that's the best case scenario. You also need a Vial on 2 for that to even work, and a Phantasmal Image in hand.
I'm not sure why a Merfolk deck is winning, since it is good vs control decks which comprise almost 1 percent of the field, which is combo heavy with a side of aggro.
It is worth noting a lot of decks are going to be over/under represented due to cost. Zoo is going to see much less play because it is the most expensive deck in the format. Burn will see more play than it deserves, and 12-post is broken in this format, and I think will see a very quick ban because it is harder to combat than Valakut. Wasteland keeps that deck mostly contained in Legacy, but you can't fight that deck with Tectonic Edge or Ghost Quarter. Blood Moon isn't even very good against it. I just don't think in a format with mostly conditional counters and weak land destruction a deck like 12-post will be beatable without completely warping the metagame.
You made a lot of work.
Thanks.
Just a suggestion. I see you like to write about Modern so if you continue, please consider to post stats of the % win/lose of the most popular decks. For all of them.
It would be interesting to know the real % of win/lose of the decks.
Stats of all the decks that entered in competition, not just those with good results, please.
Absolute values say nothing.
12post could be the most played deck but it could be winning less than the 50% of the matches, for example...
I am surprised that you didn't run strip or wasteland bro playing oath and know your gonna face hatebears its a great card vs hatebears, but great job bro.
While blood moon is seldom an auto-win, it can certainly buy you time and force your opponent to deal with it if they want to win. The majority of decks rely on nonbasic lands to make their deck reliable, and with very few other options to reliably disrupt it blood moon is really an obvious choice for the sideboard at least if you have any red at all.
Obviously it hurts 12post, but I think it hurts a lot more against kird ape/wild nacatl in zoo decks which depend on non-basics and fetches to build momentum. Dropping blood moon can stall them pretty badly.
Personally, I'm in favor of running whatever land disruption is open to you, at least in the sideboard. Spreading seas similarly can give you a nice boost in the early game, particularly if you can hit a land that produces multiple colours.
With combos going off really early in this format, pushing the other guy off of the mana he needs is one of the only ways you can be certain of delaying.
When brewing at the moment I'm always trying to put it in =P. Its awesome against 12post , Zoo , 5cc , Teachings , any Punishing Fire.dek and even if it doesnt completely destroy their mana it still a pain against most of the field.
I am rather astounded at the clarity of the bot spam. It is almost as if a human took the time to post that nonsense. *sigh* looks like more severe security is called for.
I draft 4-3-2-2 far more often than any other payout. If my deck is bad, I lose and move on. If it's decent, I'm in for at least two packs, and if I drafted well, I win three or four. My rating and skill is high enough that I win at least something nearly every time, but not so high that I'm taking first all the time. So for me, this "middle of the road payout" works okay. Something about it still bothers me though...
Here's my analogy:
You and seven friends go out for pizza. It's very expensive pizza, and sort of an unusual establishment. You all pay $14, but your waiter tells you that you've got three options for how the slices will be dealt out. In each case, the pizza will be cut into twelve equal pieces.
The first option, six of people eating will either get 3, 2, or 1 slices, the remaining two will get zero. The downside is that for reasons that aren't very clear, he tells you it will take up to an hour longer to get your pizza this way.
Option two, only two people get pizza. The two that get it will either get 8 or 4 slices, and if they'd like to share they can both have 6, but the waiter doesn't actually endorse this sharing plan. This will be faster than option one.
The third and final option gets pizza to half the people, given as 4, 3, 2, and 2 slices. This will be far faster than option one, roughly equal in time to option two.
"I don't like waiting around," one of your friends says, "I'm willing to roll the dice on option three, which will at least get pizza for half of us."
Everyone murmurs their agreements, and as you consider the options you realize something. "Hey, in options one and two we get 12 slices," you begin. "But in the third option we're only getting 11 slices, even though all of us are paying the same amount. Where does the other slice go?"
The waiter looks at you with a smirk. "I eat a slice in option three, I forgot to mention it. But it's still the most popular option by far, there's just a little less pizza for the customer."
Not feeling it's an entirely fair deal, you go along with your friends for option three, but you can't help wondering why, for all the oddness of the restaurant you're eating at, there is an option where your group gets less pizza total for the same money. Still, you reason, no one likes to wait and at least this way half of you get fed.
"Why don't you give it out as 5, 3, 2, and 2," You suggest. "Wouldn't that be more fair..." But you're interrupted by the seven other people at the table who are calling you names, throwing things at you, and even defending the waiter saying that he has to eat as well. Some of them start showing you math which seems to be based on elaborate fuzzy logic proving that letting the waiter have a slice is a better deal for all eight of you.
This analogy may not be relevant to the current discussion, I'm not sure.
OK I have been tracking my win loss ratio as well as packs won/lost since LLM. but for most sets I only played 8-4 up until ZZZ. I am an above average player with a rating between 1750-1800 on most days but it has been as high as 1912 depending on the format.
My records in:
ZZZ 8-4 (34 tourneys)
33-29 in matches
.53 win percentage
-48 packs overall
-1.41 average
1: My win percentage is 12-14% higher in 4322 so I saved myself about half a pack per draft
2: IF I had been playing swiss and had the exact same win percentage as 4322 in ZZW I would have had exactly the same negative packs average in zzw (-1.2) and a WORSE result in ZZZ (-1.05 in swiss vs -.8 in 4322) so I would have needed to improve my win percentage in swiss to more than .733 to achieve better results in zzz or by any amount in zzw.
The reason why I don't play swiss is the time. waiting for every match to finish 1st round is normally painful I seem to always finish 20 minutes earlier than the last match... having to do that every round would be horrible. and even If I did play I would have to do quite a bit better to get better results.
That said I HATE the very idea of 4322. I hate only being able to profit by one pack if I win...
I have long advocated that wotc have a higher ticket entry fee highr payout queue...
3 ticket 6-4-2-2 (or 6-3-2-2 if they have to keep stealing a pack from us) is the easiest option
I even like 4 ticket 8-4-2-2 as it easily splits to 6-6 for the winner but I haven't seen any movement on this despite years of advocacy.
There is a difference in total time between Swiss and single elimination drafts, because you have to wait for four matches to complete each round.
I single elimination drafts, you only have to wait for another three rounds in round one, one other match in round two, and there is only one match in round three.
This is more of a problem for fast players - they wait longer.
Avenger of Zendikar is the one play where a mana leak could seriously wreck them since typically the Valakut player rushes Avenger out to get in a massive advantage before you can stem the tide so a "NO if you don't pay 3" is really good despite what I said about it earlier. I would consider how common this deck is in your meta and then think about filling the SB accordingly. It is really tough to predict without knowing who is a regular and what they do to prepare. (Do they read m:tg sites for example?)
You can also deal with it by bringing your Metamorphs to bear (copying the Avenger with a nice stack of lands in play can really be a beating they didn't count on. Particularly if you show no blue and then Whoops!
On the other hand if you decide to BG you can use Go For The Throats to take care of bombs and Massacre Wurms and Black Sun's Zenith for the tokens.
That match up is where the Obstinate Baloths really shine too since Valakut is focused on your 20 and a 4/4 in the 4 slot is a nice beef they can't just bolt/valakut away.
Overall your problem is that you are trying a rogue (overlooked rather) archetype in a field of fairly well known well tuned decks. Tempered Steel is just a beating that is hard to overcome. That you can go toe to toe with it speaks well of the deck but might also be a sign the player isn't that good. (No offense I hope.)
The positive is your opponents may underestimate your chances, particularly since there is STILL a prevailing theory that Green is just bad among a certain class of player. Also adding Primeval Titan will give you some top end to work with. It is most definitely an A list team member for green.
Here is a possible GB build:
creatures (18)
4 Primeval Titan (!)
4 Birds of Paradise
2 Acidic Slime (2 main = answers to enemy swords, Tempered Steel etc)
4 Dungrove Elder
3 Obstinate Baloth (The extra life you gain here is complimented by the 4/4 for 4 body. And it is a bonus main vs random discard.)
1 Masacre Wurm (nice to have a body that sweeps.)
spells (12)
3 Go For the Throat (Try this out and if you like it maybe think about upping it to 4.)
1 Black Sun's Zenith (Main deck it is just a good mass sweeper and keeps giving, toss in the others vs Valakut and other decks that produce a lot of guys (Tempered Steel might not like seeing this either since they like to build up a little army.))
2 Green Sun's Zenith (Lowered this to two since you don't need it in the opening hand normally.)
3 Dismember (Not really convinced by this but it does kill a lot of things that aren't titans.)
3 Cultivate (this is imho strictly better than Veridian Emissary even though you don't get the blocker.) Two lands thinned/two lands in hand/play > 1 land thin/in play.
artifacts (4)
4 Swords (your choice which but Id go with at least one of each)
Planeswalkers (2)
2 Garruk, Primal Hunter
(36 nonlands)
Lands (24)
3 Bojuka Bog
4 Swamp (could be two verdant catacombs + 2 swamps but I think that is cutting it close)
4 Tectonic Edge (You could alternate this with Khalni Garden and see how each does in the slot, mixing and matching until it is right.)
14 Forest (could be two verdant catacombs + 12 forests)
(60 cards)
Sideboard (15)
4 Beast Within
1 Obstinate Baloth
3 Black Sun's Zenith
2 Masacre Wurm
3 Creeping Corrosion
2 Acidic Slime
(75 cards)
The misplay in game three was in the game against Tempered Steel. I got too greedy with my Dungrove Elder... went for too much green mana instead of black and then ended up one life short with both a Verdant Catacombs and a Dismember in hand... there wasn't a way for me to play the Dismember without hitting myself, and he had exactly lethal damage the following turn either way...
No, that Valakut matchup really hurt. Can't remember the name of the card at the moment, but I lost to the guy that makes lots of plants and then pumps them up with landfall triggers. My deck doesn't handle hordes well at all. It was an 0-2 loss, and I didn't notice any misplays... I was just overrun.
Tectonic Edge is indeed an addition I'm going to make... and to go along with them, I think I'm going to add Primeval Titans. They really fit the theme, letting me play fewer utility lands (like only one copy of Halimar Depths... and maybe the plant making green land... maybe even a Bojuka Bog for those stupid white titan shenanigans) while making Dungrove bigger by beefing up my forest count in the late game. They also trample, so getting damage through with swords will be easier too. I don't know why I didn't test them earlier. Doh!
after 12-post, Hive Mind is the second offender for "most broken". Since when the enchantment resolves, all someone has to do is cast pacts since they don't pass priority until after the copies are made. The only out at that point (that I can think of) is Angel's Grace, which is an answer- to one turn of worth pacts anyway. If one traps the Hive Mind Player this way, they are stuck trying to pay for pacts at their upkeep...
Sundial of the Infinite is another potential answer, assuming you get out before someone hive minds.
They nerf 12-post and then Twin/Swath/Hive Mind variants will get the hammer next. This is the problem with them neutering control decks.
There is an old magical adage that I remember that basically said, "If you make the available countermagic weak, the combo decks will come out in force"
Cryptic Command is too slow. Mana Leak and Rune Snage are laughable in the face of Locus mana. Remand is for tempo and not a solution.
It is similar to "when the cats are away, the mice will come to play".
This is a combo driven format. The cat is out of the bag. Meddling Mage and Chalice of the Void should skyrocket any day now...
@Marzial- Statistics are also useless unless the math is correct. It is really hard to get good statistics unless you gather them for a living. Asking someone to put statistics together is like asking them to change professions. While I am sure that Andrea is good at math, even experienced statisticians would have to demonstrate their methodology of gathering and processing data, otherwise it is just a string of meaningless numbers.
good points apaulogy . It is combo environment and zoo etc.. look pathetic compared to combos. i have died so many times to first or second turn storm decks, it is not even funny. even chalice sometimes is slow. also hive mind decks are chalice proof. since it counters only the original spell and the copy kills you, plus those decks are immunu to enchnatment removal since you never get the priority. with pathetic counters around, it is combo rising not aggro and wizards failed once more.
wasn't sure on that one thanks for that, seemed weird now makes more sense.
At the beginning means the trigger counts creatures before you can add to the count even though the trigger would resolve afterward.
Crack the fetch before brainstorm for 3 new cards, rather than seeing the card you put back on top, also agree with the beast within to kill Karakas. And, haven't used oath much, in response to the trigger can't you tap the orchard and create a spirit and get your creature? I don't see why fro reading the card why it wouldn't work but not having played at that time not sure the interaction.
I look forward to this every week. And while I do not play classic, I have learned a lot from watching you play.
Thanks for being a pillar in the community, whiffy.
You know what kills Karakas? That beast within you never tutored for and sided out...
A couple of quick points
UB Merfolk isn't a rogue deck, just a port from Legacy. Phantasmal Image is almost certainly just there to copy Lords/Dark Confidant. I suppose it is possible to copy Emrakul by putting it into play via Aether Vial, but then they are both legend ruled, you get time walked, and they can search it up again with Eye of Ugin, and that's the best case scenario. You also need a Vial on 2 for that to even work, and a Phantasmal Image in hand.
I'm not sure why a Merfolk deck is winning, since it is good vs control decks which comprise almost 1 percent of the field, which is combo heavy with a side of aggro.
It is worth noting a lot of decks are going to be over/under represented due to cost. Zoo is going to see much less play because it is the most expensive deck in the format. Burn will see more play than it deserves, and 12-post is broken in this format, and I think will see a very quick ban because it is harder to combat than Valakut. Wasteland keeps that deck mostly contained in Legacy, but you can't fight that deck with Tectonic Edge or Ghost Quarter. Blood Moon isn't even very good against it. I just don't think in a format with mostly conditional counters and weak land destruction a deck like 12-post will be beatable without completely warping the metagame.
You made a lot of work.
Thanks.
Just a suggestion. I see you like to write about Modern so if you continue, please consider to post stats of the % win/lose of the most popular decks. For all of them.
It would be interesting to know the real % of win/lose of the decks.
Stats of all the decks that entered in competition, not just those with good results, please.
Absolute values say nothing.
12post could be the most played deck but it could be winning less than the 50% of the matches, for example...
-1 anything
+1 Sol Ring.
I am surprised that you didn't run strip or wasteland bro playing oath and know your gonna face hatebears its a great card vs hatebears, but great job bro.
Go Clan Magic Eternal
Agreed.
While blood moon is seldom an auto-win, it can certainly buy you time and force your opponent to deal with it if they want to win. The majority of decks rely on nonbasic lands to make their deck reliable, and with very few other options to reliably disrupt it blood moon is really an obvious choice for the sideboard at least if you have any red at all.
Obviously it hurts 12post, but I think it hurts a lot more against kird ape/wild nacatl in zoo decks which depend on non-basics and fetches to build momentum. Dropping blood moon can stall them pretty badly.
Personally, I'm in favor of running whatever land disruption is open to you, at least in the sideboard. Spreading seas similarly can give you a nice boost in the early game, particularly if you can hit a land that produces multiple colours.
With combos going off really early in this format, pushing the other guy off of the mana he needs is one of the only ways you can be certain of delaying.
When brewing at the moment I'm always trying to put it in =P. Its awesome against 12post , Zoo , 5cc , Teachings , any Punishing Fire.dek and even if it doesnt completely destroy their mana it still a pain against most of the field.
I get the distinct impression you think people should be playing Blood Moon. I don't know why I do but I do.
I had not seen one of those bot postings in a while.
I am rather astounded at the clarity of the bot spam. It is almost as if a human took the time to post that nonsense. *sigh* looks like more severe security is called for.
I totally ignored those White signals, and missed some solid Red because I waited to late to make those selections.
Now I'm thinking it's important to just pick the most useful card available and worry about the colour as a secondary concern.
If I got the Chandra in the first pack everything would have been different :)
Actually in swiss, just as only 1 player wins, only 1 player loses...
The payout is:
3-2-2-2-1-1-1-0
It is somewhat interesting to note that only the best two are worse off compared to 4-3-2-2...
SneakAttackKid has pulled a fast one on you, and came out with mono red affinity. I also took it to 13th in the PE Modern today.
I draft 4-3-2-2 far more often than any other payout. If my deck is bad, I lose and move on. If it's decent, I'm in for at least two packs, and if I drafted well, I win three or four. My rating and skill is high enough that I win at least something nearly every time, but not so high that I'm taking first all the time. So for me, this "middle of the road payout" works okay. Something about it still bothers me though...
Here's my analogy:
You and seven friends go out for pizza. It's very expensive pizza, and sort of an unusual establishment. You all pay $14, but your waiter tells you that you've got three options for how the slices will be dealt out. In each case, the pizza will be cut into twelve equal pieces.
The first option, six of people eating will either get 3, 2, or 1 slices, the remaining two will get zero. The downside is that for reasons that aren't very clear, he tells you it will take up to an hour longer to get your pizza this way.
Option two, only two people get pizza. The two that get it will either get 8 or 4 slices, and if they'd like to share they can both have 6, but the waiter doesn't actually endorse this sharing plan. This will be faster than option one.
The third and final option gets pizza to half the people, given as 4, 3, 2, and 2 slices. This will be far faster than option one, roughly equal in time to option two.
"I don't like waiting around," one of your friends says, "I'm willing to roll the dice on option three, which will at least get pizza for half of us."
Everyone murmurs their agreements, and as you consider the options you realize something. "Hey, in options one and two we get 12 slices," you begin. "But in the third option we're only getting 11 slices, even though all of us are paying the same amount. Where does the other slice go?"
The waiter looks at you with a smirk. "I eat a slice in option three, I forgot to mention it. But it's still the most popular option by far, there's just a little less pizza for the customer."
Not feeling it's an entirely fair deal, you go along with your friends for option three, but you can't help wondering why, for all the oddness of the restaurant you're eating at, there is an option where your group gets less pizza total for the same money. Still, you reason, no one likes to wait and at least this way half of you get fed.
"Why don't you give it out as 5, 3, 2, and 2," You suggest. "Wouldn't that be more fair..." But you're interrupted by the seven other people at the table who are calling you names, throwing things at you, and even defending the waiter saying that he has to eat as well. Some of them start showing you math which seems to be based on elaborate fuzzy logic proving that letting the waiter have a slice is a better deal for all eight of you.
This analogy may not be relevant to the current discussion, I'm not sure.
--Chantry
OK I have been tracking my win loss ratio as well as packs won/lost since LLM. but for most sets I only played 8-4 up until ZZZ. I am an above average player with a rating between 1750-1800 on most days but it has been as high as 1912 depending on the format.
My records in:
ZZZ 8-4 (34 tourneys)
33-29 in matches
.53 win percentage
-48 packs overall
-1.41 average
ZZZ 4-3-2-2 (64 tourneys)
93-50 in matches
.65 win percentage
-51 packs overall
-.80 average.
ZZW 84 (33 tourneys)
25-29 in matches
.46 win percentage
-55 packs
-1.7 average
zzw 4322 (66 tourneys)
78-51
.60 win percentage
-77 packs
-1.2 average
There are a few important things to note here...
1: My win percentage is 12-14% higher in 4322 so I saved myself about half a pack per draft
2: IF I had been playing swiss and had the exact same win percentage as 4322 in ZZW I would have had exactly the same negative packs average in zzw (-1.2) and a WORSE result in ZZZ (-1.05 in swiss vs -.8 in 4322) so I would have needed to improve my win percentage in swiss to more than .733 to achieve better results in zzz or by any amount in zzw.
The reason why I don't play swiss is the time. waiting for every match to finish 1st round is normally painful I seem to always finish 20 minutes earlier than the last match... having to do that every round would be horrible. and even If I did play I would have to do quite a bit better to get better results.
That said I HATE the very idea of 4322. I hate only being able to profit by one pack if I win...
I have long advocated that wotc have a higher ticket entry fee highr payout queue...
3 ticket 6-4-2-2 (or 6-3-2-2 if they have to keep stealing a pack from us) is the easiest option
I even like 4 ticket 8-4-2-2 as it easily splits to 6-6 for the winner but I haven't seen any movement on this despite years of advocacy.
There is a difference in total time between Swiss and single elimination drafts, because you have to wait for four matches to complete each round.
I single elimination drafts, you only have to wait for another three rounds in round one, one other match in round two, and there is only one match in round three.
This is more of a problem for fast players - they wait longer.
Avenger of Zendikar is the one play where a mana leak could seriously wreck them since typically the Valakut player rushes Avenger out to get in a massive advantage before you can stem the tide so a "NO if you don't pay 3" is really good despite what I said about it earlier. I would consider how common this deck is in your meta and then think about filling the SB accordingly. It is really tough to predict without knowing who is a regular and what they do to prepare. (Do they read m:tg sites for example?)
You can also deal with it by bringing your Metamorphs to bear (copying the Avenger with a nice stack of lands in play can really be a beating they didn't count on. Particularly if you show no blue and then Whoops!
On the other hand if you decide to BG you can use Go For The Throats to take care of bombs and Massacre Wurms and Black Sun's Zenith for the tokens.
That match up is where the Obstinate Baloths really shine too since Valakut is focused on your 20 and a 4/4 in the 4 slot is a nice beef they can't just bolt/valakut away.
Overall your problem is that you are trying a rogue (overlooked rather) archetype in a field of fairly well known well tuned decks. Tempered Steel is just a beating that is hard to overcome. That you can go toe to toe with it speaks well of the deck but might also be a sign the player isn't that good. (No offense I hope.)
The positive is your opponents may underestimate your chances, particularly since there is STILL a prevailing theory that Green is just bad among a certain class of player. Also adding Primeval Titan will give you some top end to work with. It is most definitely an A list team member for green.
Here is a possible GB build:
creatures (18)
4 Primeval Titan (!)
4 Birds of Paradise
2 Acidic Slime (2 main = answers to enemy swords, Tempered Steel etc)
4 Dungrove Elder
3 Obstinate Baloth (The extra life you gain here is complimented by the 4/4 for 4 body. And it is a bonus main vs random discard.)
1 Masacre Wurm (nice to have a body that sweeps.)
spells (12)
3 Go For the Throat (Try this out and if you like it maybe think about upping it to 4.)
1 Black Sun's Zenith (Main deck it is just a good mass sweeper and keeps giving, toss in the others vs Valakut and other decks that produce a lot of guys (Tempered Steel might not like seeing this either since they like to build up a little army.))
2 Green Sun's Zenith (Lowered this to two since you don't need it in the opening hand normally.)
3 Dismember (Not really convinced by this but it does kill a lot of things that aren't titans.)
3 Cultivate (this is imho strictly better than Veridian Emissary even though you don't get the blocker.) Two lands thinned/two lands in hand/play > 1 land thin/in play.
artifacts (4)
4 Swords (your choice which but Id go with at least one of each)
Planeswalkers (2)
2 Garruk, Primal Hunter
(36 nonlands)
Lands (24)
3 Bojuka Bog
4 Swamp (could be two verdant catacombs + 2 swamps but I think that is cutting it close)
4 Tectonic Edge (You could alternate this with Khalni Garden and see how each does in the slot, mixing and matching until it is right.)
14 Forest (could be two verdant catacombs + 12 forests)
(60 cards)
Sideboard (15)
4 Beast Within
1 Obstinate Baloth
3 Black Sun's Zenith
2 Masacre Wurm
3 Creeping Corrosion
2 Acidic Slime
(75 cards)
The misplay in game three was in the game against Tempered Steel. I got too greedy with my Dungrove Elder... went for too much green mana instead of black and then ended up one life short with both a Verdant Catacombs and a Dismember in hand... there wasn't a way for me to play the Dismember without hitting myself, and he had exactly lethal damage the following turn either way...
No, that Valakut matchup really hurt. Can't remember the name of the card at the moment, but I lost to the guy that makes lots of plants and then pumps them up with landfall triggers. My deck doesn't handle hordes well at all. It was an 0-2 loss, and I didn't notice any misplays... I was just overrun.
Tectonic Edge is indeed an addition I'm going to make... and to go along with them, I think I'm going to add Primeval Titans. They really fit the theme, letting me play fewer utility lands (like only one copy of Halimar Depths... and maybe the plant making green land... maybe even a Bojuka Bog for those stupid white titan shenanigans) while making Dungrove bigger by beefing up my forest count in the late game. They also trample, so getting damage through with swords will be easier too. I don't know why I didn't test them earlier. Doh!