Id imagine this has more to do with the fact that DOTP is not real magic and therefore few if any players will complain if the text in the game matches the card. In addition, they are probably more concerned with making DoTP appealing to its player base since it is the gateway.
One thing I find interesting is that on the new Duals of the Planeswalkers game, WOTC has Errata'd Serra Ascendant to say "if you have 10 more than your starting life total." I'm not sure if WOTC has a reason that they are doing this in the simpler game and keeping in the more complicated game online or if it is more out of not caring about online multiplayer.
I don't have a problem with Serra ascendant in Classic 2hg, and here is why: It's classic, even casual decks can pull off incredibly broken things. I have a Casual Classic deck that has won turn 1(although without an absolutely perfect draw turn 2-3 is the best I can hope for), with valakut and prismatic omen as the win condition. a 1 CMC 6/6 flyer with lifelink isn't that stupid when you consider the rest of the stuff possible in classic.
I completely agree if you are playing a format other than Classic though.
I'm always conflicted about Damnation vs. BSZ. On one hand, Damnation is just an absolute, the board gets sweeped, period. On the other hand, and even not considering special cases (like: you have Melira in the deck, or the opponent has a lot of indestructible guys), in formats like Modern or Tribal Wars (don't really know about Vintage), about 80% of the times a 4-mana BSZ (X=2) does sweep the board just fine. And then recurs. And in later turns, when X=2 isn't enough, I'll get a returning BSZ and will just cast it as X=4 or whatever. With Damnation, once I used it in turn 4 to kill all those 2/2s, the chances to draw into another later are worse.
This said, lately I've been starting to use Damnation. But still wondering if it really is strictly better like everyone seems to think.
The Serra Problem is a "WotC neglecting the 2HG ban list" problem, actually. Serra Ascendant (like Sorin Markov and Magister Sphinx, which cause less issues because of their high mana cost) is just not supposed to work the way a 30/40-life environment makes it work (in Commander, the problem is self-mitigated by the 100-card singleton deck structure). The wording is wrong. How do I know that? Because WotC also knows that and lately started to word those kinds of cards in a different way. You can read Chalice of Life, for instance: "if you have 10 life more than your starting life total". A convoluted wording that however prevents the card to weirdly change functionality when it changes format. Serra Ascendant should be officially reworded in the same way, or banned from 2HG formats. The problem is that 2HG doesn't draw enough attention. We could still try writing some emails, though.
Yeah, I'm sure it's the sort of thing you don't even notice anymore when you're very used to it (it's true for me). A newbie's perspective can be very useful in these cases.
Yeah I enjoyed the few times we teamed up together with you piloting this deck. It is relatively fair and yet sneaky which is pretty funny when the opposition have no idea what you are doing. And I know what you mean about Ascendant. That monkish Angel wannabe was ubiquitous in Tribal Wars for a while too along with its walker cousins Student of Warfare and Transcendent Master. Got real tired of seeing them, in every casual game in Juff (if not facing elves/gobos).
I'm actually a fan of the removal you are using at the moment. Both Sun's Zeniths do some important things. More RSZ than BSZ but still both are good. I'd keep them.
I have found that I prefer paper play because, while it hits my wallet a lot more, it offers a more casual environment in which you don't feel bad about getting tromped by a really strong deck. Online, people don't say anything but just sit there and play cards. It's frustrating at times. There are also issues like system crashes, lack of communication from Wizards and so on and so forth. Most people don't even know that magic online exists. People comment on my youtube videos of magic online games saying, "Where can I get this program?"
I am also 100% sure that if Vintage and/or Legacy took off to the extent it has in paper, the majority of those cards would skyrocket. I can't see sellers offering a Black Lotus for 15 tix, not when its paper price is considerably higher. So who will be playing Vintage online since there are no proxies? Answer: people who play dredge or people who already have their decks that don't require P9. This will obviously make for a broken environment in which only a few decks dominate, as all formats tend to follow this pattern- even Modern which has 20+ tier 1 decks but is dominated by Jund at present.
So yes, enjoy your cheap(er) cards, but at the end of the day, count me out for online play. Wizards of the Coast needs to do a considerably better job at it before I'm willing to come back. So far, it doesn't seem like they are.
I couldn't agree more on the Shred-Freak. In the kind of deck where you are calculating the damage potential of each card, Shred-Freak is great. He is worth 4-damage most of the time, and if each of your cards are worth 4-damage each in the majority of board-states, you're going to win. Odd that I have seen even very good streamers discuss the card as being of little value, then playing it in a game where they get in with it for 4, and go on to win the game. Too many evaluate creatures in terms of their ability to break past or trade with the typical creatures of the field, when not every deck needs to do that. Similarly, not every deck will want to make trades at the same position that others would. Most all of the Common Rakdos 2-drops implicate this question. Certain decks want Chainwalker, others want Shred-Freak, and still others will want Roustabout. You don't have your choice typically, but it is critical to listen to your creature base to know what kind of deck yours is turning out to be.
Equally right on with Syncopate. In a format with such slow, toughness based, or otherwise conditional removal, the unconditional quality of counterspells jumps to the fore and often justifies their timing restrictions. And they don't come more unconditional or cheaper than Syncopate. I've noticed a lot of success with it when I draft Izzet, and it fills a spot in my mana curve regardless of whether my creature base is cheap or expensive.
Domri Rade seems fine (is it a Goblin planeswalker?), I'm sure it will see play.
But damn, I want Kiora Atua! (And I want for her to have a very Timmy ultimate involving Leviathans). With the story of Ravnica discovering the existence of Merfolks, and Simic being featured in Gatecrash, a Simic Merfolk planeswalker seemed to be right at home there. Instead, we're getting Dormi and inevitably Gideon.
Oh well, since the third block will feature all the guilds, maybe there's still a chance Kiora will be there (assuming for a 2-2-1 distribution, which would mean that so far every block had a different planeswalker distribution, which is bizarre).
Maybe this is the right occasion to bring this up: I recently had to explain to a couple newbies that this is, in fact, a podcast: they skipped right after the article logo, missing the (honestly, a bit inconspicuous) play button and download link. I remember having the same overlook issue myself back when I started reading PureMTGO. Maybe you can just add a "click here to hear the podcast" line, or something like that?
Congrats on 200, that's pretty impressive for a podcast :).
Re the expensive spells thing, a simple search shows that the only non-creature spell >10 mana is blinkmouth infusion (12UU) which is the affinity for artifacts instant already mentioned. I think it's fair to call enter the infinite the most expensive non-creature spell ever given that blinkmouth is never intended to be cast at 14 mana (and in fact would do nothing if it was!).
Congrats on reaching 200! :) I have been against replays since the start of the ability to watch them during tourney matches because I've felt it is akin to scouting in paper which is not tolerated. And because of that I have generally avoided drafting/sealed more than I otherwise would have. I haven't felt incentivized by the last few sets (since ARB) to do limited tourneys anyway but the replay issue certainly sealed the deal for me. This seems like a change for the positive without completely hosing those who use the replays for other purposes.
RE: the Early Gatecrash spoilers, find myself unable to judge the cards properly in a vacuum. Not knowing what the rest of the set is like makes it hard to read how the few spoiled cards fit. That said it seems the blue card is designed purely for johnny casual with no applicability in competitive magic outside of something crazy involving Omniscience as mentioned in the show.
Even then I am going to go out on a limb and opine that it will never be tier 1. Hellkite Tyrant seems like a proactive card for dealing with a block like SOM except that it is 2.5 years late. (Should have been in ROE.) Also being extremely expensive at 6cmc means that it may not stand alone but will be a bomb mythic in limited since it is a 6 power trampling flyer.
Aurelia is double mana in 2 colors which makes it less interesting to me since it is obviously designed to be used in commander where you can competitively count on casting it in a red white deck. 6 power x4 for lethal isn't terrible and if you can pump it a few times it can almost be lethal in 2 hits. However that's for commander. For other formats it is outclassed in its casting cost slot.
EXCEPT if you can build some sort of swarm deck around it with perhaps Sublime Archangel and Finest Hour. So maybe there is some fun to be had with it in modern. Though as I have stated repeatedly fun in modern is hard to come by since everyone seems to bring their best deck to JuFF these days.
My first thought for the Cyclops was Lands.dec. But he'd be fairly impossible to get out in a reasonable time without some serious help. Again you could do something fun with him maybe in Modern with Dramatic Entrance.
Domri Rade seems like straight up card advantage in the right deck with at least the ability to predict how Miracles are going to show up. There may be some competitive uses for him(her?).
Toshiro and Tetsuo: MTG Salvation has that Toshiro was born in 3720 AR, while Tetsuo in 4150 AR. Also that, after countless tribulations, the Myojin of Night's Reach transported Toshiro to Dominaria (in the Madara archipelago), where he became the progenitor of Clan Umezawa. Centuries later, his descendant Tetsuo served under Nicol Bolas.
The MTG background is more complex than the Mahabharata at this point.
... I felt like I should jump in with a few comments, seeing as how I do mostly write about limited (and sealed in particular).
I dislike your build in the very first pool; the mana consistency is poor and the power of the cards you are running is not worth it. Rogue's Passage is probably not worth squeezing in there either.
Looking over your pool, you seem to have a pretty great Blue suite of cards, and a couple of great Black 4-drops, as well as some solid Red cards that could be brought into play, and you have three gates in this color combination (which also makes the Jailbreakers just really solid and reliable). I would probably go for something like this:
1 Isperia's Skywatch, 2 Voidwielder, 1 Inaction Injunction, 1 Dispel, 1 Doorkeeper, 1 Skyline Predator, 1 Hover Barrier, 1 Inspiration, 1 Cancel.
1 Mind Rot, 1 Dead Reveler, 2 Ogre Jailbreaker, 1 Sewer Shambler, 1 Zanikev Locust, 1 Desecration Demon.
1 Explosive Impact, 2 Gore-House Chainwalker, 1 Lobber Crew, 1 Annihilating Fire.
1 Frostburn Weird.
1 Izzet Guildgate, 2 Rakdos Guildgate, 3 Mountain, 4 Swamp, 7 Island.
I like your original build with pool number two a lot better, though I can't see a reason for splashing for Inspiration instead of Voidwielder (that card is absurd). I would also consider trying to play the Hussar Patrol and/or the Druid's Deliverance, probably cutting unimpressive cards like Rubbleback Rhino and Korozda Monitor for them. This is also a deck I could see running 18 lands in.
I don't really know what to think of pool number three - the creature-base in general is really bad, but I still really dislike playing Runewing (at all - and especially off a splash). I feel like you could have made the deck a little more aggressive by moving into Izzet splashing Rakdos for the removal and the Hellsteed instead of the current build, dropping Imp, Reveler, Rustabout, Longlegs and probably Locust for Electromancer, another Pursuit of Flight, Stealer of Secrets, Doorkeeper and Hover Barrier. Cut the Deviant Glee and you're back down to 40 cards (which you have no reason not to be at here).
The last pool's mana-base looks off to me, so I'm surprised you did not have issues with it - did you have to mulligan at all? I would probably try and cut the Black out and run the 4-5 playable (if unexciting) white and blue cards in your board instead, or change plans drastically and try to build a deck more around the Regent with Black as a main color. Splashing a triple-black card does not make sense (you should have 3 more black sources at least to run the Regent reliably out on time). Your blue does not seem strong enough to warrant a main-color, though I think you are in the right colors. My build would probably look somethig like this:
Due to the mana inconsistency (and the lack of playables), I added an 18th land. This deck looks like it has a good early-game without lacking ways to punch through, and it certainly has a sweet suite of removal (as well as one of the best singleton Ethereal Armors I've ever seen). The Izzet Guildgate is obviously for the Jailbreaker, though I probably wouldn't have run it without the Deviant Glee in there. A Rakdos Guildgate would obviously have been way better.
I hope you find the comment useful - feel free to ask if anything doesn't make intuitive sense! :)
To answer Adam (because the plug in isn't working just now): Tetsuo Umezawa is Toshiro's descendant. From this, we may assume that the events occurring in Madara happened after those in Kamigawa....or else planeswalkers can travel through time as well as space.
The GW matchup is almost unwinnable for the red deck particularly with budget considerations in mind (the best cards for it are hellrider and thundermaw, both of which can take away the GW deck's inevitability). Having said that, lightning mauler into pyreheart wolf can be a great way to push damage past a loxodon smiter and mizzium mortars (which is still fairly budget) is another good sideboard answer, even as an overpriced flame slash. It's also a deck against which treason effects (another thing - i'd choose traitorous blood over mark) are genuinely good against, and it's literally your only answer to a bonded silverheart. And on top of that of course is the play smart - always kill the first turn dork if you can, don't walk your stromkirk into a flashed 2/2 token (without a spear in hand) and try to save your spears up for blowouts like kill in response to rancor, or to break a silverheart bond mid-combat, or let your ash zealot first strike a smiter.
I completely agree that Hellrider is a superior choice in the 4-drop slot to the cards used in this deck. However, as Hellriders are about 6-7 tix each these days they aren't a great budget option. I wish I had picked up a playset when they were cheaper like you.
I also agree with your assessment of the four-drops. Hound can go a long way provided they don't have Pillar of Flame. Mark of Mutiny is a bit controversial but I agree that it depends on what types of matchup you are expecting to face. Lightning Mauler is a fine replacement and I hadn't really considered how good it is with Pyreheart Wolf.
GW Aggro can be rough as their creatures tend to outmatch your own. I'm not sure if there are any cards that really help shore up that matchup. I guess you just have to be aggressive and try and get some Pyreheart shenanigans going on.
Nice analysis of what is a genuinely competitive budget standard deck, which as you say is rare and nice. I think the list you use is strictly better with maindeck hellriders if people have them available, I understand they bump the budget up a fair bit though (luckly I got them back when they were $3 :). Instigator gang is really pretty average and archwing dragon is decent, but only as a sideboard option against control. I do quite like hound though, particularly if you can play enough early threats to draw out the pillars first. Maindeck mark is fairly techy and very bad against a lot of different types of deck (BR aggro, UWX flash, junk tokens, creatureless control), not sure I'd go with that, maybe use something like lightning mauler which is a pretty sick lead into pyreheart wolf.
As for where the deck sits, I think tier 1.5 is about right. One thing to note is that it does quite well in the BR pseudo-mirror so that's definitly a consideration given the popularity of that deck. It's very awful against GW aggro though - I play GW aggro mostly and my match record against it in 8-person and daily events is something like 14-2 atm.
The interesting thing is that you grabbed that data shortly after a large dip in prices. Duals plunged last week to the point where I was able get some at reasonable prices ($7.5 @ for taigas $14 for a tundra, etc.) If you waited a few more weeks or went back a few weeks the percentage between then and now would be much higher than 6%. Also I didn't realize Maze of Ith was included in his speculation. That dropped like a rock after Realms was published. I expect it will climb back to $12-15 when people stop buying Realms.
I wasn't trying to prove anything, I was just presenting data that I thought was kind of interesting seeing as how bullish he was on his idea in the article.
If anything I think the data would discourage people from trying to do something like Knutson did because it looks like he's facing a loss, and potentially a pretty substantial one depending on the exact size and nature of his investment. It certainly wasn't the "sure thing" that he seemed to think it was at the time. But there's lots of things that you could read into it one way or another - I wasn't trying to do anything of the sort.
This doesn't prove much of anything. If the hoarder makes an already small format even more unpopular it can be the tipping point to irrelevance. So he would not have made the cards hoarded more expensive but made their use irrelevant and harmed the player's ability to enjoy the game. Another scenario is that the prices are still inflated and should be much lower based on their natural demand. Again this harms player's ability to enjoy the game. One way or the other hoarding is bad for the community. It can certainly be argued however that a system that doesn't allow hoarding would crash the game altogether. Again though your evidence isn't evidence of much.
Id imagine this has more to do with the fact that DOTP is not real magic and therefore few if any players will complain if the text in the game matches the card. In addition, they are probably more concerned with making DoTP appealing to its player base since it is the gateway.
One thing I find interesting is that on the new Duals of the Planeswalkers game, WOTC has Errata'd Serra Ascendant to say "if you have 10 more than your starting life total." I'm not sure if WOTC has a reason that they are doing this in the simpler game and keeping in the more complicated game online or if it is more out of not caring about online multiplayer.
I don't have a problem with Serra ascendant in Classic 2hg, and here is why: It's classic, even casual decks can pull off incredibly broken things. I have a Casual Classic deck that has won turn 1(although without an absolutely perfect draw turn 2-3 is the best I can hope for), with valakut and prismatic omen as the win condition. a 1 CMC 6/6 flyer with lifelink isn't that stupid when you consider the rest of the stuff possible in classic.
I completely agree if you are playing a format other than Classic though.
I'm always conflicted about Damnation vs. BSZ. On one hand, Damnation is just an absolute, the board gets sweeped, period. On the other hand, and even not considering special cases (like: you have Melira in the deck, or the opponent has a lot of indestructible guys), in formats like Modern or Tribal Wars (don't really know about Vintage), about 80% of the times a 4-mana BSZ (X=2) does sweep the board just fine. And then recurs. And in later turns, when X=2 isn't enough, I'll get a returning BSZ and will just cast it as X=4 or whatever. With Damnation, once I used it in turn 4 to kill all those 2/2s, the chances to draw into another later are worse.
This said, lately I've been starting to use Damnation. But still wondering if it really is strictly better like everyone seems to think.
The Serra Problem is a "WotC neglecting the 2HG ban list" problem, actually. Serra Ascendant (like Sorin Markov and Magister Sphinx, which cause less issues because of their high mana cost) is just not supposed to work the way a 30/40-life environment makes it work (in Commander, the problem is self-mitigated by the 100-card singleton deck structure). The wording is wrong. How do I know that? Because WotC also knows that and lately started to word those kinds of cards in a different way. You can read Chalice of Life, for instance: "if you have 10 life more than your starting life total". A convoluted wording that however prevents the card to weirdly change functionality when it changes format. Serra Ascendant should be officially reworded in the same way, or banned from 2HG formats. The problem is that 2HG doesn't draw enough attention. We could still try writing some emails, though.
Yeah, I'm sure it's the sort of thing you don't even notice anymore when you're very used to it (it's true for me). A newbie's perspective can be very useful in these cases.
Yeah I enjoyed the few times we teamed up together with you piloting this deck. It is relatively fair and yet sneaky which is pretty funny when the opposition have no idea what you are doing. And I know what you mean about Ascendant. That monkish Angel wannabe was ubiquitous in Tribal Wars for a while too along with its walker cousins Student of Warfare and Transcendent Master. Got real tired of seeing them, in every casual game in Juff (if not facing elves/gobos).
I'm actually a fan of the removal you are using at the moment. Both Sun's Zeniths do some important things. More RSZ than BSZ but still both are good. I'd keep them.
Good work,its really amazing.You Hard-work can been seen through these Drafts. salvage jeep
I have found that I prefer paper play because, while it hits my wallet a lot more, it offers a more casual environment in which you don't feel bad about getting tromped by a really strong deck. Online, people don't say anything but just sit there and play cards. It's frustrating at times. There are also issues like system crashes, lack of communication from Wizards and so on and so forth. Most people don't even know that magic online exists. People comment on my youtube videos of magic online games saying, "Where can I get this program?"
I am also 100% sure that if Vintage and/or Legacy took off to the extent it has in paper, the majority of those cards would skyrocket. I can't see sellers offering a Black Lotus for 15 tix, not when its paper price is considerably higher. So who will be playing Vintage online since there are no proxies? Answer: people who play dredge or people who already have their decks that don't require P9. This will obviously make for a broken environment in which only a few decks dominate, as all formats tend to follow this pattern- even Modern which has 20+ tier 1 decks but is dominated by Jund at present.
So yes, enjoy your cheap(er) cards, but at the end of the day, count me out for online play. Wizards of the Coast needs to do a considerably better job at it before I'm willing to come back. So far, it doesn't seem like they are.
Interesting...
I will have a talk with the powers that be and see if there is something we can do about it.
Thanks for pointing this out. We are always looking for ways to improve and making sure that people know to listen is rather high on my list :)
I couldn't agree more on the Shred-Freak. In the kind of deck where you are calculating the damage potential of each card, Shred-Freak is great. He is worth 4-damage most of the time, and if each of your cards are worth 4-damage each in the majority of board-states, you're going to win. Odd that I have seen even very good streamers discuss the card as being of little value, then playing it in a game where they get in with it for 4, and go on to win the game. Too many evaluate creatures in terms of their ability to break past or trade with the typical creatures of the field, when not every deck needs to do that. Similarly, not every deck will want to make trades at the same position that others would. Most all of the Common Rakdos 2-drops implicate this question. Certain decks want Chainwalker, others want Shred-Freak, and still others will want Roustabout. You don't have your choice typically, but it is critical to listen to your creature base to know what kind of deck yours is turning out to be.
Equally right on with Syncopate. In a format with such slow, toughness based, or otherwise conditional removal, the unconditional quality of counterspells jumps to the fore and often justifies their timing restrictions. And they don't come more unconditional or cheaper than Syncopate. I've noticed a lot of success with it when I draft Izzet, and it fills a spot in my mana curve regardless of whether my creature base is cheap or expensive.
Essentially agree on everything.
Domri Rade seems fine (is it a Goblin planeswalker?), I'm sure it will see play.
But damn, I want Kiora Atua! (And I want for her to have a very Timmy ultimate involving Leviathans). With the story of Ravnica discovering the existence of Merfolks, and Simic being featured in Gatecrash, a Simic Merfolk planeswalker seemed to be right at home there. Instead, we're getting Dormi and inevitably Gideon.
Oh well, since the third block will feature all the guilds, maybe there's still a chance Kiora will be there (assuming for a 2-2-1 distribution, which would mean that so far every block had a different planeswalker distribution, which is bizarre).
Congrats on my part, too!
Maybe this is the right occasion to bring this up: I recently had to explain to a couple newbies that this is, in fact, a podcast: they skipped right after the article logo, missing the (honestly, a bit inconspicuous) play button and download link. I remember having the same overlook issue myself back when I started reading PureMTGO. Maybe you can just add a "click here to hear the podcast" line, or something like that?
Congrats on 200, that's pretty impressive for a podcast :).
Re the expensive spells thing, a simple search shows that the only non-creature spell >10 mana is blinkmouth infusion (12UU) which is the affinity for artifacts instant already mentioned. I think it's fair to call enter the infinite the most expensive non-creature spell ever given that blinkmouth is never intended to be cast at 14 mana (and in fact would do nothing if it was!).
Congrats on reaching 200! :) I have been against replays since the start of the ability to watch them during tourney matches because I've felt it is akin to scouting in paper which is not tolerated. And because of that I have generally avoided drafting/sealed more than I otherwise would have. I haven't felt incentivized by the last few sets (since ARB) to do limited tourneys anyway but the replay issue certainly sealed the deal for me. This seems like a change for the positive without completely hosing those who use the replays for other purposes.
RE: the Early Gatecrash spoilers, find myself unable to judge the cards properly in a vacuum. Not knowing what the rest of the set is like makes it hard to read how the few spoiled cards fit. That said it seems the blue card is designed purely for johnny casual with no applicability in competitive magic outside of something crazy involving Omniscience as mentioned in the show.
Even then I am going to go out on a limb and opine that it will never be tier 1. Hellkite Tyrant seems like a proactive card for dealing with a block like SOM except that it is 2.5 years late. (Should have been in ROE.) Also being extremely expensive at 6cmc means that it may not stand alone but will be a bomb mythic in limited since it is a 6 power trampling flyer.
Aurelia is double mana in 2 colors which makes it less interesting to me since it is obviously designed to be used in commander where you can competitively count on casting it in a red white deck. 6 power x4 for lethal isn't terrible and if you can pump it a few times it can almost be lethal in 2 hits. However that's for commander. For other formats it is outclassed in its casting cost slot.
EXCEPT if you can build some sort of swarm deck around it with perhaps Sublime Archangel and Finest Hour. So maybe there is some fun to be had with it in modern. Though as I have stated repeatedly fun in modern is hard to come by since everyone seems to bring their best deck to JuFF these days.
My first thought for the Cyclops was Lands.dec. But he'd be fairly impossible to get out in a reasonable time without some serious help. Again you could do something fun with him maybe in Modern with Dramatic Entrance.
Domri Rade seems like straight up card advantage in the right deck with at least the ability to predict how Miracles are going to show up. There may be some competitive uses for him(her?).
Toshiro and Tetsuo: MTG Salvation has that Toshiro was born in 3720 AR, while Tetsuo in 4150 AR. Also that, after countless tribulations, the Myojin of Night's Reach transported Toshiro to Dominaria (in the Madara archipelago), where he became the progenitor of Clan Umezawa. Centuries later, his descendant Tetsuo served under Nicol Bolas.
The MTG background is more complex than the Mahabharata at this point.
Great article, btw.
... I felt like I should jump in with a few comments, seeing as how I do mostly write about limited (and sealed in particular).
I dislike your build in the very first pool; the mana consistency is poor and the power of the cards you are running is not worth it. Rogue's Passage is probably not worth squeezing in there either.
Looking over your pool, you seem to have a pretty great Blue suite of cards, and a couple of great Black 4-drops, as well as some solid Red cards that could be brought into play, and you have three gates in this color combination (which also makes the Jailbreakers just really solid and reliable). I would probably go for something like this:
1 Isperia's Skywatch, 2 Voidwielder, 1 Inaction Injunction, 1 Dispel, 1 Doorkeeper, 1 Skyline Predator, 1 Hover Barrier, 1 Inspiration, 1 Cancel.
1 Mind Rot, 1 Dead Reveler, 2 Ogre Jailbreaker, 1 Sewer Shambler, 1 Zanikev Locust, 1 Desecration Demon.
1 Explosive Impact, 2 Gore-House Chainwalker, 1 Lobber Crew, 1 Annihilating Fire.
1 Frostburn Weird.
1 Izzet Guildgate, 2 Rakdos Guildgate, 3 Mountain, 4 Swamp, 7 Island.
I like your original build with pool number two a lot better, though I can't see a reason for splashing for Inspiration instead of Voidwielder (that card is absurd). I would also consider trying to play the Hussar Patrol and/or the Druid's Deliverance, probably cutting unimpressive cards like Rubbleback Rhino and Korozda Monitor for them. This is also a deck I could see running 18 lands in.
I don't really know what to think of pool number three - the creature-base in general is really bad, but I still really dislike playing Runewing (at all - and especially off a splash). I feel like you could have made the deck a little more aggressive by moving into Izzet splashing Rakdos for the removal and the Hellsteed instead of the current build, dropping Imp, Reveler, Rustabout, Longlegs and probably Locust for Electromancer, another Pursuit of Flight, Stealer of Secrets, Doorkeeper and Hover Barrier. Cut the Deviant Glee and you're back down to 40 cards (which you have no reason not to be at here).
The last pool's mana-base looks off to me, so I'm surprised you did not have issues with it - did you have to mulligan at all? I would probably try and cut the Black out and run the 4-5 playable (if unexciting) white and blue cards in your board instead, or change plans drastically and try to build a deck more around the Regent with Black as a main color. Splashing a triple-black card does not make sense (you should have 3 more black sources at least to run the Regent reliably out on time). Your blue does not seem strong enough to warrant a main-color, though I think you are in the right colors. My build would probably look somethig like this:
1 Dead Reveler, 1 Grim Rustabout, 1 Necropolis Regent, 1 Thrill-Kill Assassin, 1 Stab Wound, 1 Launch Party, 1 Deviant Glee, 1 Golgari Longlegs, 1 Tavern Swindler, 1 Ogre Jailbreaker.
1 Keening Apparition, 1 Knightly Valor, 2 Arrest, 1 Ethereal Armor, 2 Armory Guard, 1 Concordia Pegasus, 1 Soul Tithe.
1 Skymark Roc, 1 Lyev Skyknight, 1 Soulsworn Spirit.
1 Azorius Guildgate, 1 Transguild Promenade, 1 Izzet Guildgate, 1 Island, 6 Plains, 8 Swamp.
Due to the mana inconsistency (and the lack of playables), I added an 18th land. This deck looks like it has a good early-game without lacking ways to punch through, and it certainly has a sweet suite of removal (as well as one of the best singleton Ethereal Armors I've ever seen). The Izzet Guildgate is obviously for the Jailbreaker, though I probably wouldn't have run it without the Deviant Glee in there. A Rakdos Guildgate would obviously have been way better.
I hope you find the comment useful - feel free to ask if anything doesn't make intuitive sense! :)
To answer Adam (because the plug in isn't working just now): Tetsuo Umezawa is Toshiro's descendant. From this, we may assume that the events occurring in Madara happened after those in Kamigawa....or else planeswalkers can travel through time as well as space.
The GW matchup is almost unwinnable for the red deck particularly with budget considerations in mind (the best cards for it are hellrider and thundermaw, both of which can take away the GW deck's inevitability). Having said that, lightning mauler into pyreheart wolf can be a great way to push damage past a loxodon smiter and mizzium mortars (which is still fairly budget) is another good sideboard answer, even as an overpriced flame slash. It's also a deck against which treason effects (another thing - i'd choose traitorous blood over mark) are genuinely good against, and it's literally your only answer to a bonded silverheart. And on top of that of course is the play smart - always kill the first turn dork if you can, don't walk your stromkirk into a flashed 2/2 token (without a spear in hand) and try to save your spears up for blowouts like kill in response to rancor, or to break a silverheart bond mid-combat, or let your ash zealot first strike a smiter.
It's still not going to be a good matchup though!
Glad you enjoyed the article.
I completely agree that Hellrider is a superior choice in the 4-drop slot to the cards used in this deck. However, as Hellriders are about 6-7 tix each these days they aren't a great budget option. I wish I had picked up a playset when they were cheaper like you.
I also agree with your assessment of the four-drops. Hound can go a long way provided they don't have Pillar of Flame. Mark of Mutiny is a bit controversial but I agree that it depends on what types of matchup you are expecting to face. Lightning Mauler is a fine replacement and I hadn't really considered how good it is with Pyreheart Wolf.
GW Aggro can be rough as their creatures tend to outmatch your own. I'm not sure if there are any cards that really help shore up that matchup. I guess you just have to be aggressive and try and get some Pyreheart shenanigans going on.
Thanks a lot of comment.
Nice analysis of what is a genuinely competitive budget standard deck, which as you say is rare and nice. I think the list you use is strictly better with maindeck hellriders if people have them available, I understand they bump the budget up a fair bit though (luckly I got them back when they were $3 :). Instigator gang is really pretty average and archwing dragon is decent, but only as a sideboard option against control. I do quite like hound though, particularly if you can play enough early threats to draw out the pillars first. Maindeck mark is fairly techy and very bad against a lot of different types of deck (BR aggro, UWX flash, junk tokens, creatureless control), not sure I'd go with that, maybe use something like lightning mauler which is a pretty sick lead into pyreheart wolf.
As for where the deck sits, I think tier 1.5 is about right. One thing to note is that it does quite well in the BR pseudo-mirror so that's definitly a consideration given the popularity of that deck. It's very awful against GW aggro though - I play GW aggro mostly and my match record against it in 8-person and daily events is something like 14-2 atm.
The interesting thing is that you grabbed that data shortly after a large dip in prices. Duals plunged last week to the point where I was able get some at reasonable prices ($7.5 @ for taigas $14 for a tundra, etc.) If you waited a few more weeks or went back a few weeks the percentage between then and now would be much higher than 6%. Also I didn't realize Maze of Ith was included in his speculation. That dropped like a rock after Realms was published. I expect it will climb back to $12-15 when people stop buying Realms.
I wasn't trying to prove anything, I was just presenting data that I thought was kind of interesting seeing as how bullish he was on his idea in the article.
If anything I think the data would discourage people from trying to do something like Knutson did because it looks like he's facing a loss, and potentially a pretty substantial one depending on the exact size and nature of his investment. It certainly wasn't the "sure thing" that he seemed to think it was at the time. But there's lots of things that you could read into it one way or another - I wasn't trying to do anything of the sort.
This doesn't prove much of anything. If the hoarder makes an already small format even more unpopular it can be the tipping point to irrelevance. So he would not have made the cards hoarded more expensive but made their use irrelevant and harmed the player's ability to enjoy the game. Another scenario is that the prices are still inflated and should be much lower based on their natural demand. Again this harms player's ability to enjoy the game. One way or the other hoarding is bad for the community. It can certainly be argued however that a system that doesn't allow hoarding would crash the game altogether. Again though your evidence isn't evidence of much.
Here's a cut/paste of the data for reference.
Then Now %
Badlands 9.25 11.59 25%
Bayou 13.5 12.59 -7%
Plateau 9 6.08 -32%
Savannah 14 19.79 41%
Scrubland 12.5 13.12 5%
Taiga 12 9.32 -22%
Tropical Island 15 17.32 15%
Tundra 16 18.85 18%
Underground Sea 26 21.88 -16%
Volcanic Island 9.75 15.27 57%
Maze of Ith 8.5 7.65 -10%
FOIL Tundra 52 56.55 9%
197.5 210.01 6%